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Post by huh on Sept 30, 2014 14:16:10 GMT -5
Follow-up to what I posted above re: convertible notes... Someone on ST informed me that the Deerfield conversions may be complete as per the most recent 10Q. And that does appear to be the case. However a new agreement was created to allow up to an additional $60 Million (12M shares) in convertible notes at a conversion rate not less than $5.00, conversion price based on the volume weighted average over the prior 3 days. So if I'm understanding this correctly, the max convertible amount was increased from 40 Million to $60 Million, and the range of days used for the volume weighted average price went from 20 days to only 3. In short, I may not be waiting near as long as I had thought to get back into this. More detailed info can be found on their most recent 10Q, page 13. (this link will download the 10Q as a PDF file)I'm hoping and suspecting that the the 3 day VWAP needed for the calculation of the note related stock conversion price begins this week (maybe even as early as tomorrow).
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Post by huh on Oct 1, 2014 9:43:41 GMT -5
Sep. 16 at 11:24 AM FIBsDontLie FIBsDontLie
@drgregorysmithmdphd $MNKD I see 5.62/5.63 as next FIB support. JMHO Hitting that FIB support now...but I'll wait to see what it does here.
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Post by huh on Oct 1, 2014 10:09:56 GMT -5
Sep. 16 at 11:24 AM FIBsDontLie FIBsDontLie
@drgregorysmithmdphd $MNKD I see 5.62/5.63 as next FIB support. JMHO Hitting that FIB support now...but I'll wait to see what it does here. Previous support/now resistance is 5.92-6.06 area. Would expect it to at least backtest somewhere in there (~5.95). If it doesn't, could be a longer term bullish sign that a bottoming pattern may be forming. JMHO
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Post by huh on Oct 1, 2014 17:51:18 GMT -5
That late day action should get MNKD to 5.90's easily.
Coming off that 76.4 FIB and it's bottom BB, with a candle like that, makes me wonder if it's not going to push for much higher though.
Have to keep a close eye on this one tomorrow.
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MNKD
Oct 1, 2014 17:59:13 GMT -5
huh likes this
Post by birthmark on Oct 1, 2014 17:59:13 GMT -5
I had a buy in at 5.50 Huh and didn't fill!! Like you, I will be watching this tomorrow. Thanks.
GL
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Post by huh on Oct 1, 2014 18:20:59 GMT -5
I had a buy in at 5.50 Huh and didn't fill!! Like you, I will be watching this tomorrow. Thanks. GL 5.62 is the 76.4 FIB from the 03/31 low (which was also the RS bottom of the huge H&S pattern) and the 06/30 high. If you look at a chart of that low and high, you can see why that FIB is so significant. It's the last support for the entire 4 year pattern pointing to $49.00. Tough as hell for me restraining from buying it today at 5.62/5.63. But I want to see what it does at that 5.95 first. That was major support/now resistance between that same high and low. Close over 5.95 and 6.75 is an easy upside target. Need to see what it does with this 5.62-5.95 range now. [to myself] Patience...patience...patience...
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Post by huh on Oct 1, 2014 18:25:50 GMT -5
Here's a look at those FIBs & support/resistance on the daily. Hard to see the rounded iH&S because it is so big - and technically broken until over 8 or so - but I think it's only broken until those convertible notes are converted (or more like hoping that's the case).
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MNKD
Oct 2, 2014 9:19:49 GMT -5
Post by huh on Oct 2, 2014 9:19:49 GMT -5
I'm hoping and suspecting that the the 3 day VWAP needed for the calculation of the note related stock conversion price begins this week (maybe even as early as tomorrow). Not sure exactly how a day's VWAP is calculated since it changes based on the time frame viewed (1 min, 5 min, 30 min, hourly, etc.). But looks like the closing VWAP on all yesterday was 5.66/5.67. Though ideally I'd like to see a 3 day VWAP around 5.00. That's the minimum for those note conversions. But an average at that last FIB ~5.62 wouldn't be so bad either.
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MNKD
Oct 2, 2014 15:39:12 GMT -5
Post by huh on Oct 2, 2014 15:39:12 GMT -5
(maybe?) 2nd day VWAP 5.48. Two day average 5.58.
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MNKD
Oct 3, 2014 15:02:31 GMT -5
Post by huh on Oct 3, 2014 15:02:31 GMT -5
(maybe) 3rd day VWAP 5.50 Three day average 5.55
I'll keep watching the previous 3 day VWAP and see if it doesn't get lower, at least until it breaks over some resistance first.
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MNKD
Oct 6, 2014 16:57:31 GMT -5
huh likes this
Post by sloop on Oct 6, 2014 16:57:31 GMT -5
I heard Maxie ran off to Africa to help with the Ebola outbreak
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MNKD
Oct 8, 2014 8:22:08 GMT -5
Post by huh on Oct 8, 2014 8:22:08 GMT -5
MNKD running 3 day VWAP: 5.38
I'm hoping for 5 or less.
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Post by huh on Oct 8, 2014 15:07:38 GMT -5
Running 3 day VWAP: 5.24
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Post by huh on Oct 9, 2014 10:19:46 GMT -5
5.05 important support for MNKD now
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Post by huh on Oct 9, 2014 15:33:27 GMT -5
Running 3 day VWAP: 5.11
(gettin' close)
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Post by huh on Oct 10, 2014 9:02:09 GMT -5
For the first time in a while, I was really tempted to buy some MNKD around the 4.75 support. But I want some confirmation on this sucka first.
(and back to 4.97-5.00 from here ain't it!)
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MNKD
Oct 11, 2014 8:27:33 GMT -5
Post by huh on Oct 11, 2014 8:27:33 GMT -5
Running 3 day VWAP: 4.95
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Post by huh on Oct 13, 2014 22:33:44 GMT -5
Not that it likely matters anymore, but Running 3 day VWAP: 4.80
I'm looking for one of three things now in order to take another shot at a long with this: trades above it's 3 day running VWAP, drops to some support, or gets over some resistance. (it's ~10%+ away from either support or resistance now IMHO)
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Post by huh on Oct 14, 2014 19:59:18 GMT -5
Running 3 day VWAP: 4.74 First time it closed above it's 3 day VWAP since I started tracking it! Unfortunately, it's HOD was the broken support backtest/gap fill resistance I mentioned before. It'll need more than this one day pop to prove bullish.
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Post by huh on Oct 15, 2014 9:23:53 GMT -5
Also had in order in for MNKD @ 4.98, but didn't get filled! LOD was 4.98. Guess algos wanted that too. It's crazy that I'd even have to consider chasing a stock on a day like today!
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