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Post by lasvegas77 on Nov 10, 2017 12:39:43 GMT -5
I sent back all my margin call money to the bank. Don't need to temp me with that to start out trading again.  |
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Post by theMist on Nov 10, 2017 12:40:21 GMT -5
Spot vix is up yesterday and today
With VIX in 11s roll yield small
4 days to expiry but still not great
Million Dollar Question: Does it improve once again for the millionth time or does it worsen? lol
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Post by lasvegas77 on Nov 10, 2017 12:47:00 GMT -5
The market has several reasons to sell off this time that otherwise would allow the market to go up to the moon.
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Post by ipath on Nov 10, 2017 12:56:34 GMT -5
Welcome back from your trip Ipath. I was thinking, that would have been pretty cool to run into you out in the wild: a fellow tvix shorter. Still haven't met anyone in person randomly that says, "I short tvix." I am siding with taking a longer break from tvix. Tvix is not acting normal. thanks LV.. we took a ride from Sanata Monica to SF and spent several days on those coastal cities (Sanata Barbara, Santa Cruz..) loved it. Def. would be cool to meet a fellow TVIX seller Now wife went to visit fam in Europe so I get all the time to focus on trading but doesn't look too clear. I just bought some SPY put options and sold some SPY call options. Don't think the market will have the power to cross 2600 before revisiting 2500, but then again even if there is a pullback it will be caught by the bulls with open arms.. so, long term still bullish imo |
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Post by lasvegas77 on Nov 10, 2017 12:59:12 GMT -5
Sounds like a fun trip. Im also leaning towards 2500 before 2600 too at this time. That would likely send tvix up to 11.5-12. This is not really a call for it to happen as much as it is just a feeling and observation. |
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Post by theMist on Nov 10, 2017 12:59:14 GMT -5
talk to you guys later
they're propping up the scams and stopping them from dropping
later-
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Post by ipath on Nov 10, 2017 13:08:40 GMT -5
Sounds like a fun trip. Im also leaning towards 2500 before 2600 too at this time. That would likely send tvix up to 11.5-12. This is not really a call for it to happen as much as it is just a feeling and observation. If its a gradual fall then yeah but if its a one day 3% fall in snp500 I think TVIX could come close to doubling. As for today, many ppl will want to close their short positions, so there could be a last hour pop imo |
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Post by lasvegas77 on Nov 10, 2017 13:08:52 GMT -5
Possible upside target is revised between 10.5-11
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Post by lasvegas77 on Nov 10, 2017 13:10:02 GMT -5
I'm glad i had that second chance to cover yesterday. You can get lucky with this sometimes. I have been whipsawed with this many times so i knew at the time that it might be just that. A whipsaw not an authentic drop.
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Post by lasvegas77 on Nov 10, 2017 13:11:16 GMT -5
That would be quite dramatic Ipath. I know it can happen but i don't feel that is likely to occur here. I think the variables pusshing the market down are known. Whereas doubling would require a China devaluation of their currency by surprise.
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Post by theMist on Nov 10, 2017 13:20:36 GMT -5
So if I hadn't broken my rule and if I had covered yesterday in AH I would have locked in profits
Then reshorted today TVIX 8.70 range in premarket and would be flat as I type
Oh well...
What do you think for final hour today LV? they drop VIX SCAMs into the close?
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Post by lasvegas77 on Nov 10, 2017 13:24:58 GMT -5
Coulda, woulda shoulda...
I know the feeling. Sometimes breaking rules works.
In this case, these sell offs on modest rallies is all too familiar to me. The only way the snp is getting to 2600 in my view is it would have to be a spike up at the open or something. There's no way it's going to rally during market hours to that level in my view.
The wild card is thanksgiving week. Typically nobody sells that week and shorting tvix is often an easy trade. But this may be different with the taxes and government funding so close.
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Post by ipath on Nov 10, 2017 13:25:09 GMT -5
def. with time one develops a feeling, where you cant even logically describe it.. but most of the time it turns out to be true
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Post by lasvegas77 on Nov 10, 2017 13:28:55 GMT -5
For the close,
I'm expecting a choppy session. It's not going to trade more than a few points on the snp in my view from here. Tvix may be lower from here for the close but i really wouldn't put my money on it. Tvix is not acting normal this week so it would be more likely to me that it will not do what i would normally expect it to do. Typically tvix will fall on friday afternoons. That doesn't feel likely to me today.
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Post by theMist on Nov 10, 2017 13:52:41 GMT -5
Unless VXX drops hard into the close VXX now dangerous -- It's above 10,20dsmas and if closes there - not good
10dsma now pointing sideways instead of down
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Post by lasvegas77 on Nov 10, 2017 14:11:15 GMT -5
new snp highs and vxx well above the lows.
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Post by theMist on Nov 10, 2017 14:12:14 GMT -5
new snp highs and vxx well above the lows. yeah for the day Hope that changes but definitely a tough day to be short Have to see what happen when/if SP flashes green FWIW - S&P Hourly indicators are curling up more but only hour and half left of trading - move will probably happen Monday |
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Post by theMist on Nov 10, 2017 14:17:58 GMT -5
CNBC: Big week for tax reform next week
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Post by theMist on Nov 10, 2017 14:24:25 GMT -5
Come on! DROP ALREADY!!!!!!  tvix 8.60 |
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Post by lasvegas77 on Nov 10, 2017 14:29:48 GMT -5
Mist, i hope you are not the only guy looking at your tvix after hours on a friday night.
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