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Post by theMist on Sept 21, 2017 11:29:07 GMT -5
What you have been doing well LV is seeing through the static and shorting at the right times. If you do that you can stand a little up and down later. yeah - it always helps to have gotten early on a nice run
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Post by lasvegas77 on Sept 21, 2017 11:34:12 GMT -5
What you have been doing well LV is seeing through the static and shorting at the right times. If you do that you can stand a little up and down later. Thanks Walnut. I try my best. Honestly, The last two years have been amazing but im still recovering from some terrible losses from several years ago. What has helped me the most is having liquidity offsite that i cant play with unless i need it for a margin call.
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Post by lasvegas77 on Sept 21, 2017 11:36:20 GMT -5
What you have been doing well LV is seeing through the static and shorting at the right times. If you do that you can stand a little up and down later. yeah - it always helps to have gotten early on a nice run While i was on vacation, I was thinking a very good trade to hold this short for many months will likely come into the end of the year. I still think this is the case with tvix. By the end of December this will probably be 4-6.
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Post by theMist on Sept 21, 2017 11:41:47 GMT -5
yeah - it always helps to have gotten early on a nice run While i was on vacation, I was thinking a very good trade to hold this short for many months will likely come into the end of the year. I still think this is the case with tvix. By the end of December this will probably be 4-6. If you can guarantee that, that would be really nice lol And I think can happen and this could be still the beginning of a nice run BUT I think it will all come down to tax reform. If we get news regarding tax reform and its not good - I believe that will be the turning point. And lately Speaker Ryan has been saying that they should have it done by the end of the year And personally I think the longer they take the better it is for the bulls
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Post by lasvegas77 on Sept 21, 2017 11:43:28 GMT -5
Haha. I wish i could guarantee it. But im putting my own money on it. That said, tvix could bounce a lot at some point. But i still feel it will hit my target by the end of the year. The contango indicates there might be some issues next year though.
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Post by lasvegas77 on Sept 21, 2017 11:44:57 GMT -5
The natural inclination is to cover your position on this when you sense it is going back up. Sometimes it works well. I've done it. However, holding over longer periods most often just compounds your gains more than you could ever make trying to time this crazy instrument.
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Post by lasvegas77 on Sept 21, 2017 11:46:45 GMT -5
One thing that concerns me is the roll yield is so high (28%) that i am wondering if it is going to spike on the vix to catch up. I usually like a strong roll yield but this is really higher than normal.
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Post by walnut on Sept 21, 2017 11:47:39 GMT -5
I'd resell if tvix would spike a little. Might happen. I don't like being short when 15 min macd goes positive and that was the problem this morning. Rules are all that keep me out of trouble.
Rules like that can cause some nasty whipsaw days though, sometimes you have to step back and relax
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Post by walnut on Sept 21, 2017 11:48:38 GMT -5
The natural inclination is to cover your position on this when you sense it is going back up. Sometimes it works well. I've done it. However, holding over longer periods most often just compounds your gains more than you could ever make trying to time this crazy instrument. I'm watching for good roll overs for some sell and holds with moderate position sizes in the future.
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Post by lasvegas77 on Sept 21, 2017 11:48:49 GMT -5
When i opened my trading platform at 1:15am pst, i was shocked to see the vix was downn a few pennies with the futures down 15-20 points. I was feeling stressed out last night with the futures down just a few points because it seemed a lot more sensitive yesterday for the vix.
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Post by theMist on Sept 21, 2017 11:50:23 GMT -5
The natural inclination is to cover your position on this when you sense it is going back up. Sometimes it works well. I've done it. However, holding over longer periods most often just compounds your gains more than you could ever make trying to time this crazy instrument. The problem is at some point we will definitely get hit with a real correction and unless you have staying power to stomach a double in VXX (possibly 4x for TVIX) you can get wiped out very easily It will happen someday but question is does TVIX hit $4 before then S&P all along has been behaving with bullish patterns and latest one points to SP2540-50 range
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Post by lasvegas77 on Sept 21, 2017 11:50:27 GMT -5
I'd resell if tvix would spike a little. Might happen. I don't like being short when 15 min macd goes positive and that was the problem this morning. Rules are all that keep me out of trouble. Rules like that can cause some nasty whipsaw days though, sometimes you have to step back and relax I think the problem with that rule is the tvix seems to have some spikes in the early morning if the market is not rallying at the time.
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Post by lasvegas77 on Sept 21, 2017 11:51:05 GMT -5
The natural inclination is to cover your position on this when you sense it is going back up. Sometimes it works well. I've done it. However, holding over longer periods most often just compounds your gains more than you could ever make trying to time this crazy instrument. The problem is at some point we will definitely get hit with a real correction and unless you have staying power to stomach a double in VXX (possibly 4x for TVIX) you can get wiped out very easily It will happen someday but question is does TVIX hit $4 before then S&P all along has been behaving with bullish patterns and latest one points to SP2540-50 range That's why i don't mess with backwardization.
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Post by walnut on Sept 21, 2017 11:52:03 GMT -5
yes spikes, but actually going positive on macd-- only every now and then when contango is good.
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Post by lasvegas77 on Sept 21, 2017 11:57:11 GMT -5
The looming vote next week on obamacare repeal i think is enough to keep the market elevated.
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Post by walnut on Sept 21, 2017 12:21:03 GMT -5
Gotta go to work for awhile, ttyl
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Post by lasvegas77 on Sept 21, 2017 13:56:17 GMT -5
I count about 13 times tvix going into this 12.50 range when it was below it. Perhaps 13 is the charm?
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Post by theMist on Sept 21, 2017 13:57:10 GMT -5
VXX chart Just words of caution and could be wrong BUT not liking the way this is starting to look like action back in August next 2-3 weeks will be interesting And indicators are curling up just like that timeframe Covering my shares today at best price possible and will look to reshort after another spike VXX should reach up and at least close gap to 42.73 at some point and tag that 10sma at around 43.22ish S&P still has target of SP2540 range for iH&S but question is does it pullback now and backtest SP2480 range or continues to climb to hit target OR fails backtest and pattern busts which would be a first maybe I'm just being too cautious
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Post by lasvegas77 on Sept 21, 2017 13:58:39 GMT -5
The machines turn back on when the 2500 range on the snp is too close for Yellen's comfort.
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