|
Post by huh on Jul 24, 2017 7:56:55 GMT -5
10 things you need to know before the opening bell The US dollar is out of favor. Data released by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission on Friday showed that leveraged funds reduced their net positions in the US dollar by another $2 billion last week, and net positioning is in jeopardy of turning short for the first time since May 2016. A mystery trader made a massive bet that stocks will go crazy by October. The trade, which bets on a spike in volatility, could amount to a payout of as much as $262 million. The US and the UK are working on a post-Brexit trade deal. Liam Fox, the UK's international trade secretary, reportedly favors a relaxation of rules to land a free-trade deal with the US. Eurozone PMIs slow down. The headline reading for IHS Markit Eurozone PMI fell to 55.8 in July from 56.3 in June, making for the second straight decline. "The survey data are historically consistent with GDP rising at a quarterly rate of 0.6%, cooling slightly from a pace of over 0.7% signaled for the second quarter," according to Chris Williamson, the chief business economist at IHS Markit. OPEC isn't making any changes. A supply meeting in St. Petersburg, Russia, is unlikely to produce any major changes to the cartel's strategy, as production caps for two exempt countries - Libya and Nigeria - won't be discussed, Bloomberg's Wael Mahdi, Grant Smith, and Elena Mazneva report. The 3rd-biggest cryptocurrency is having a huge 2017. The value of ripple, the third-most-popular cryptocurrency, has increased by nearly 3,000% this year. Snap hits an all-time low. Shares of the social-media company dipped to an all-time low of $14.34 on Friday and are now down by about 15% from their initial public offering. Stock markets around the world are lower. Japan's Nikkei (-0.62%) trailed in Asia, and Britain's FTSE (-0.88%) lags in Europe. The S&P 500 is set to open down 0.15% near 2,469. Earnings reporting picks up a bit. Halliburton reports ahead of the opening bell, while Alphabet releases its quarterly results after markets close. US economic data is moderate. Markit PMIs will be released at 9:45 a.m. ET, and existing-home sales are due out at 10 a.m. ET. The US 10-year yield is down by 1 basis point at 2.23%. markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/opening-bell-july-24-2017-2017-7-1002198050
|
|
|
Post by huh on Jul 24, 2017 7:59:00 GMT -5
10 things in tech you need to know today 1. The first "Pokémon GO" event turned out to be a disaster, and people are getting refunds and bonuses. The event took place in Chicago and hosted about 20,000 people in Grant Park, but a server outage made the game impossible to play. 2. China is forcing the citizens of Xinjiang, a Muslim-majority area, to install spyware on their phones. People who won't cooperate risk up to 10 days in jail. 3. SoundCloud is stopping a group of people from downloading and storing its content. The team behind "The Archive Project" announced its intention to store all of SoundCloud's files amid concerns that the company would shut down, but a request from SoundCloud itself put an end to the operation. 4. Amazon's new Business division is off to a promising start according to Bill Burkland, the UK head of operations. Burkland compared Amazon Business to the firm's colossal Amazon Web Services arm, and said that Business is part of the company-wide commitment to create 5,000 new jobs in Britain. 5. Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson announced that he's partnered with Apple to co-star in an ad that features the Siri digital assistant. You can watch the entire clip, called "Dominate The Day," on Apple's official YouTube channel. 6. Game of Thrones' first episode has reportedly been illegally streamed over 90 million times across the globe. The figure trumps the 16 million figure HBO provided, which combines both television and the company's own streaming service. 7. Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos has joined Instagram. His first post shows the Alabama factory that his Blue Origin space company will use to build the New Glenn rocket. 8. You can now buy a replica of Mark Zuckerberg's signature t-shirt for $46 (£35). Vresh Clothing, the company behind the product, won't offer the original $300 (£230) grey t-shirt Facebook's CEO buys from designer Brunello Cucinelli, but will give its customers something "as close as possible to the original." 9. People at Amazon have started moving into the firm's new London headquarters, according to a company executive. The move comes as a vote of confidence in spite of Brexit, and will see approximately 5,000 staff occupy the 600,000 sq. ft. building located between Shoreditch and the City of London. 10. The UK government wants to double down on drone security. A new bill proposal will ask owners of drones heavier than 250g to register their device and attend safety awareness courses. www.businessinsider.com/10-things-in-tech-you-need-to-know-today-july-24-2017-7
|
|
|
Post by huh on Jul 24, 2017 8:00:41 GMT -5
...A mystery trader made a massive bet that stocks will go crazy by October. The trade, which bets on a spike in volatility, could amount to a payout of as much as $262 million... Wow, Mist, you weren't kidding when you said that your portfolio was full on bear now
|
|
|
Post by theMist on Jul 24, 2017 8:04:17 GMT -5
...A mystery trader made a massive bet that stocks will go crazy by October. The trade, which bets on a spike in volatility, could amount to a payout of as much as $262 million... Wow, Mist, you weren't kidding when you said that your portfolio was full on bear now lol
|
|
|
Post by huh on Jul 24, 2017 8:08:50 GMT -5
Here's the bullet points to that large VIX trade: - To fund it, the investor sold 262,000 VIX puts expiring in October, with a strike price of 12.
- The trader then used those proceeds to buy a VIX 1x2 call spread, which involves buying 262,000 October contracts with a strike price of 15 and selling 524,000 October contracts with a strike price of 25.
- For reference, bullish call spreads are used when a moderate rise in the underlying asset is expected. Traders buy call options at a specific strike price while selling the same number of calls of the same asset and expiration date at a higher strike.
- In a perfect scenario, where the VIX hits but doesn't exceed 25 before October expiration, the trader would see a whopping $262 million payout.
- It is possible for the VIX to spike too much. If it increased beyond 35.2, the investor would start to lose money since they used a call spread, even though they got the direction of the trade correct.
- For context, VIX October futures are trading at 13.6, while the spot index closed at 9.62 on Thursday.
Full article here
|
|
|
Post by theMist on Jul 24, 2017 8:14:44 GMT -5
I have an all time low of spot vix at 8.60 -- I think spot vix may drop under 9 with this run Complacency is running real high right now and can stay that way for awhile before any significant real selloff
VXX should be testing 10.90-11 area
My portfolio is full on bear but took out a short VXX position this morning at 11.26 I'm going to put in a stop loss in case of a spike and at that point I will make money in my bear accounts
|
|
|
Post by theMist on Jul 24, 2017 8:19:40 GMT -5
Vix futures Contango still high and showing no signs of fear Too early with the Bear trade
|
|
|
Post by walnut on Jul 24, 2017 8:25:21 GMT -5
We didn't know that a big bull run was happening. Hindsight is 20-20, as usual. I think we are due for a vxx bounce soon.
|
|
|
Post by theMist on Jul 24, 2017 8:29:50 GMT -5
The target range for S&P is SP2468-2500 and could be wanting upper part of range to satisfy the ascending triangle target of SP2490ish With this slow drift up - have to be open to VXX dropping to 11 and under before any spike VXX usually doesn't drop to low 20 cent range (11.20) without testing 11 VXX 4 HR Chart VXX could be wanting to test lower line at 10.80s
|
|
|
Post by theMist on Jul 24, 2017 8:46:32 GMT -5
VXX going down still IMO
Markets are red, contango high, VXX red. Markets hit support and VXX will drop further
Unless markets get hit with a bombshell which looks unlikely
VXX target 10.90-11
|
|
|
Post by theMist on Jul 24, 2017 9:44:43 GMT -5
The amazing thing is my IRA is actually flat from where I bought
spxu, soxs saving the account
My trading account lost a 40 cent move in VXX but my short at 11.26 earlier is making up for it
|
|
|
Post by theMist on Jul 24, 2017 10:08:55 GMT -5
S&P Daily Chart 9 days into this runup -- could continue for another 2 weeks. Last gap up and run took 17 trading days before crashing back to SP2350 (the infamous one day 300 pt selloff).
|
|
|
Post by theMist on Jul 24, 2017 12:10:05 GMT -5
From Investing.com www.investing.com/analysis/5-reasons-to-fear-the-fall-200202917?utm_source=Desktop%20Notifications&utm_medium=referral5 Reasons To Fear The Market Fall
This powerful and protracted bull market has made Cassandras look foolish for a long time. Those who went on record predicting that massive central bank manipulation of markets would not engender viable economic growth have been proven correct. However, these same individuals failed to fully anticipate the willingness of momentum-trading algorithms to take asset prices very far above the underlying level of economic growth. Nevertheless, there are five reasons to believe that this fall will finally bring stock market valuations down to earth, and vindicate those who have displayed caution amidst all the frenzy. Reason Number One: Budget and Debt Ceiling Showdowns in D.C. Congress needed to shave two weeks off its August recess in an effort to make headway on raising the debt ceiling, which will hit the absolute limit by mid-October, and how to fund the government past September 30th of this year. Tea-Party Republicans, as well as Office of Management and Budget Director Mick Mulvaney, would like to add spending reform riders to the debt limit bill. But, U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin is looking to pass a “clean” bill. If Mnuchin gets his clean debt ceiling bill passed, the show-down will then move to the appropriations bills used to fund the upcoming fiscal year. For the past few years, Congress has been pushing through last minute continuing resolutions, rather than passing a budget, to provide funding at a rate of the previous year's funding. Not being able to make progress on either of these measures will lead to a government shutdown that could leave markets and Trump’s tax reform agenda in a tail spin. Reason Number Two: Trump May Finally Deal with North Korea President Donald Trump may find it very convenient to “Wag the Dog” before the year closes out. What is needed is a “fantastic”distraction from his failure to reach an agreement to repeal and replace Obamacare and to push through with a tax reform package. Also, an assault on Kim Jong-un’s nuclear facilities would go a long way in reducing the media’s obsession with Russiagate. The President and his administration held an emergency meeting on July 4th after North Korea fired its first ICBM into the Sea of Japan. Trump promised that a nuclear strike against the U.S. “won’t happen” and guaranteed, “A measured response” to the rogue regime. Trump also urged China to, “put a heavy move on North Korea” and to “end this nonsense once and for all.” Such a preemptive strike this fall would tilt the robot trading machines into a sell-button frenzy. Reason Number Three: China’s Inverted Yield Curve On June 7th the spread between China’s 10 and 1 year sovereign bond yields became negative. This was only the second time since 2005 that such an inversion occurred, and this time around it became the most inverted in history. An inverted yield curve, no matter what country it occurs in, is a sign of severe distress in the banking system and almost always presages a recession. A recession, or even just a sharp decline in China’s GDP growth, would send shock waves throughout emerging markets and the global economy. Indeed, on July 17th the major indexes in China all plunged the most since December 2016 due to investor fears over tighter monetary and economic controls from Beijing. If the yield curve remains inverted into the fall, look for exacerbated moves to the downside in global markets. Reason Number Four: QE Tapering from the European Central Bank The head of the ECB, Mario Draghi, stated in late June that deflationary forces have been replaced by reflationary forces. This simple statement sent bond yields soaring across the globe in anticipation of his inevitable official taper announcement that could be made as soon as September 7th. German 10-year Bund yields are still about 150 basis points below the ECB’s inflation target, and about 350 bps below implied nominal GDP. This means when Mr. Draghi actually starts removing his massive bid from the European bond markets yields should spike suddenly and in dramatic fashion—regardless of the pervasive weak economy. Rapidly rising borrowing costs on Europe’s over-leveraged economy would cause investors to worry about future growth prospects and send high-frequency front-runners scrambling for the narrow exit door at once. Reason Number Five: Janet Yellen’s Quantitative Tightening Most investors don’t understand that the Federal Reserve has been tightening monetary policy since December 2013 when it started to taper its $85 billion per month asset purchase program. Now, after QE has been wound down to zero and four rate hikes have taken place, the Fed will likely announce the actual start date for the selling of its balance sheet at its September FOMC meeting. This means it should begin dumping about half of the $4.5 trillion worth of Treasury and MBS holdings starting in Q4. The problem is that global central banks are tightening monetary policy as the economy weakens. For instance, U.S. GDP averaged about 2% since 2010; but has dropped to just 1.6% during 2016 and is just 1.4% so far in 2017. This additional supply of Treasury debt, coupled with the already soaring deficits (up 31% year over year), could send bond prices tumbling. This would exacerbate the move higher in bond yields caused by the ECB’s Tapering. That could be enough to send the passive ETF investing sheeple jumping off a cliff en masse. The end of central bank monetary accommodations, which is coming to a head this fall, is the primary reason to believe the odds for a significant stock market correction could be just a couple of months away. Rising debt service payments on the additional $60 trillion of debt incurred since 2008 is likely to be the catalyst that turns the market sentiment from greed to panic. Adding to this perilous situation is the record amount of NYSE margin debt outstanding, along with the fact that institutional investors have just 2.25% of their portfolios in cash—the lowest level since just prior to the start of the Great Recession, according to Citigroup. In other words, investors are levered up and all-in. Since the election of Donald Trump, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has reached a record high one out of every four trading days. And, according to Ned Davis Research, the S&P 500 hasn’t seen a pullback of more than 10% in almost 350 days,and it has been nearly 2100 days without a decline of more than 20%. The average days without such a decline is 167 and 635 respectively. This market is overvalued, overextended and extremely dangerous! Therefore, it is very likely this long-overdue market correction could be worse than the ordinary 20 percent decline. The upcoming stock market toboggan ride is not only starting from the second highest valuation in history, but also with the balance sheets of the Fed and Treasury already severely impaired. In other words, there just isn’t a lot of room left to lower interest rates or to run up huge deficits in an attempt to quickly pull the economy out of its downward spiral. It is time to put a wealth preservation strategy in place before the fall arrives.
|
|
|
Post by walnut on Jul 24, 2017 12:14:20 GMT -5
I like when the news start talking about corrections again
Nothing especially imminent on that list though, too bad for us bears
|
|
|
Post by theMist on Jul 24, 2017 13:22:30 GMT -5
I like when the news start talking about corrections again Nothing especially imminent on that list though, too bad for us bears At this rate, by the time SP hits 2500, VXX will trading at 10 bucks
|
|
|
Post by walnut on Jul 24, 2017 13:25:03 GMT -5
Brutal. I'd like a pop to short scalp into.
|
|
|
Post by walnut on Jul 24, 2017 13:26:26 GMT -5
VXX down almost 20% since July 7
|
|
|
Post by theMist on Jul 24, 2017 13:28:28 GMT -5
S&P 4 HR Chart Could be making larger rising wedge
|
|
|
Post by theMist on Jul 24, 2017 14:44:40 GMT -5
VXX 4 HR Chart An unbelievable run -- market is crushing Bears once again VXX should tap that lower line around VXX 10.70 range and if that breaks we can be looking at a move lower that takes VXX to 10 and under with S&P taking its time to reach SP 2500 With my short VXX at 11.26 I'm actually making good money now Was too early putting on bear hat
|
|
|
Post by theMist on Jul 24, 2017 14:48:22 GMT -5
VIX, VIX futures This picture says it all Absolutely no fear and even with spot vix in low 9s and probably headed to 8s Even a small spike in spot vix will do nothing to effect VIX SCAMs since first 2 month vix futures are in the 11s
|
|