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Post by ipath on Jul 10, 2017 11:00:30 GMT -5
BTW - when S&P and tech started selling this morning I knew markets were not going to rollover and instead consolidate for move higher The clue was that spot vix really didn't take off and contango didn't take a heavy hit and actually improved That's true, so what is it that makes VIX move higher on a small selling right before it really sets on. Or in todays case not move
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Post by theMist on Jul 10, 2017 11:03:51 GMT -5
Walnut - you around? short any VXX?
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Post by theMist on Jul 10, 2017 11:22:02 GMT -5
BTW - when S&P and tech started selling this morning I knew markets were not going to rollover and instead consolidate for move higher The clue was that spot vix really didn't take off and contango didn't take a heavy hit and actually improved That's true, so what is it that makes VIX move higher on a small selling right before it really sets on. Or in todays case not move Obviously spot vix is a measure of implied volatility of a wide range of S&P 500 index options (put/call ratio). Today, it did make a small move at 10am EST from 11.13-11.67 but indicators were bearish with spot vix rolling over still The small move was nothing more than just a backtest of some moving avgs It was a small move and indicated no real fear and contango hardly budged For me that was the clue that S&P was headed back up and not roll over
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Post by walnut on Jul 10, 2017 11:25:01 GMT -5
I'm around, been reading the posts. Have just been preoccupied studying this vxx hedge. It worked last week when the markets were down, and today when market up. So far looking good.. just trying to fully understand it.
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Post by theMist on Jul 10, 2017 11:27:24 GMT -5
Vix futures / contango Contango improved nicely today
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Post by theMist on Jul 10, 2017 11:30:26 GMT -5
S&P now at resistance I believe it will breakout above it but may pullback a little and consolidate Covering VXX short @ 12.81 for first trade since at possible inflection point UP 10k S&P right at resistance S&P Hourly Chart
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Post by ipath on Jul 10, 2017 11:32:44 GMT -5
I'm around, been reading the posts. Have just been preoccupied studying this vxx hedge. It worked last week when the markets were down, and today when market up. So far looking good.. just trying to fully understand it. I tried a lot, but in the end the squeeze wasn't worth the juice. If you come up with something you should be awarded a PhD in SCAM studies. Seriously they made it almost impossible to hedge properly and still make money... I hope you outsmarted them
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Post by walnut on Jul 10, 2017 11:39:06 GMT -5
I'm around, been reading the posts. Have just been preoccupied studying this vxx hedge. It worked last week when the markets were down, and today when market up. So far looking good.. just trying to fully understand it. I tried a lot, but in the end the squeeze wasn't worth the juice. If you come up with something you should be awarded a PhD in SCAM studies. Seriously they made it almost impossible to hedge properly and still make money... I hope you outsmarted them Thanks, yes you are right, finding a vxx hedge is about like finding the holy grail, could be a big waste of time. I have a lot of time invested in it I can tell you. This hedge is simple, and based on theta capture but seems to benefit from a little movement. It is about variance / standard deviation and getting a good selling price on the option entry.
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Post by walnut on Jul 10, 2017 11:43:24 GMT -5
Ipath said - "Seriously they made it almost impossible to hedge properly and still make money... I hope you outsmarted them " Yeah possibly they did make it impossible just based on hedging directional vxx bets, I don't think that can be hedged.
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Post by walnut on Jul 10, 2017 11:49:55 GMT -5
Up 10k? congrats again haha S&P now at resistance I believe it will breakout above it but may pullback a little and consolidate Covering VXX short @ 12.81 for first trade since at possible inflection point UP 10k S&P right at resistance S&P Hourly Chart
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Post by walnut on Jul 10, 2017 11:52:46 GMT -5
I'm around, been reading the posts. Have just been preoccupied studying this vxx hedge. It worked last week when the markets were down, and today when market up. So far looking good.. just trying to fully understand it. I tried a lot, but in the end the squeeze wasn't worth the juice. If you come up with something you should be awarded a PhD in SCAM studies. Seriously they made it almost impossible to hedge properly and still make money... I hope you outsmarted them Incredibly, in my experience studying this subject for years, NOTHING can be hedged. The expected value of the hedge always costs more than the value that you gain in insurance. The only "hedge" that works is reducing position sizes to a level that your account can tolerate. And beta diversification, if you can consider that any type of a hedge.
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Post by ipath on Jul 10, 2017 11:58:29 GMT -5
Last time I thought I got it was when I figured I could sell VIX put options, then I found out that they increase in price as the expiration approaches unless VIX was up
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Post by theMist on Jul 10, 2017 12:00:01 GMT -5
S&P gearing up to breakout I reshorted 35k VXX
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Post by ipath on Jul 10, 2017 12:02:13 GMT -5
cant believe I did it, but I just went long Macys at 21.24 its little oversold.. it's trading at 52 week low.. with dividend of 6.7%
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Post by walnut on Jul 10, 2017 12:03:55 GMT -5
Last time I thought I got it was when I figured I could sell VIX put options, then I found out that they increase in price as the expiration approaches unless VIX was up VIX put options are especially bizarre. I am not sure why they exist at all. They don't work in any way.
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Post by ipath on Jul 10, 2017 12:06:35 GMT -5
Last time I thought I got it was when I figured I could sell VIX put options, then I found out that they increase in price as the expiration approaches unless VIX was up VIX put options are especially bizarre. I am not sure why they exist at all. They don't work in any way. I did make money with them when I bought some leading up to the pres. election
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Post by theMist on Jul 10, 2017 12:07:31 GMT -5
S&P Hourly chart S&P breaking out above resistance
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Post by theMist on Jul 10, 2017 12:39:54 GMT -5
VIX Futures / Contango Contango now 6-7%
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Post by theMist on Jul 10, 2017 12:56:04 GMT -5
S&P breaking out stepping out for little bit Today is my Birthday ttyl
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Post by walnut on Jul 10, 2017 13:08:42 GMT -5
Happy birthday Mist take the rest of the day off
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