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Post by theMist on Jul 6, 2017 12:47:13 GMT -5
I'm not at my computer but at a glance looks a lot like a rising wedge into that 2420 resistance S&P 15 min Rising wedge, Bear Flag broke to downside
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Post by theMist on Jul 6, 2017 12:51:47 GMT -5
Tesla
Was supposed to hit 400 and they pulled plug at 387 Fundies overtook technicals
Only took 8 days to undo all those gains above 300
When they hit the SELL button for markets, it will be fast and furious just like Tesla's fall
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Post by ipath on Jul 6, 2017 13:00:36 GMT -5
at $370 I was going to short Tesla, then was told that technical indicators all point to $400 so I gave up on the idea
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Post by theMist on Jul 6, 2017 13:08:08 GMT -5
at $370 I was going to short Tesla, then was told that technical indicators all point to $400 so I gave up on the idea If you do recall my post re technicals - yes technicals did say $400 (387 pretty close) -- However, I did say very important to know fundamentals when playing stocks. I'm strong believer in that News can make or break a chart pattern. That's why I only trade VIX SCAMs BTW - you think Trump and govt may have had something to do with it? I heard had something to do with safety tests for Model S falling short. Doesn't Elon Musk hate Trump ever since Paris Accord News? lol
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Post by theMist on Jul 6, 2017 13:14:55 GMT -5
and once again FLY my Babies!! FLY!! still holding 15k long VXX
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Post by theMist on Jul 6, 2017 13:41:31 GMT -5
VXX - VIX SCAMs VXX has been in an accelerated descending channel for past year and half It failed 2x within the past 3 months to get out of it -- remember French elections Now we have VXX clearly out of the accelerated descending channel and is currently above both 10dsma and 20dsma. Should hit 50dsma (13.63) at some point - I'm thinking by close today. BBs are also tight and VXX is counter trending back UP This environment IMO is dangerous for shorting Vix SCAMs as long term hold VXX also left behind a breakaway gap in 23 range (TVIX 81) that will eventually get filled VXX Daily chart zoomed out VXX Daily chart zoomed in
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Post by ipath on Jul 6, 2017 13:56:58 GMT -5
at $370 I was going to short Tesla, then was told that technical indicators all point to $400 so I gave up on the idea If you do recall my post re technicals - yes technicals did say $400 (387 pretty close) -- However, I did say very important to know fundamentals when playing stocks. I'm strong believer in that News can make or break a chart pattern. That's why I only trade VIX SCAMs BTW - you think Trump and govt may have had something to do with it? I heard had something to do with safety tests for Model S falling short. Doesn't Elon Musk hate Trump ever since Paris Accord News? lol I did more research on it and everything pointed to $400.. If it wasn't for the news it prob would've reached $400. It could have to do with Trump, that was the first thing that crossed my mind. The millennial investors, or may I call them market participants are more emotionally involved and invest into brands that are cool TSLA/SNAP etc. I tried shorting SNAP at $27, no shares available. now at $17 I think still a good short
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Post by theMist on Jul 6, 2017 14:17:15 GMT -5
S&P Daily Chart You can most likely stick fork in large ascending triangle now IMO one back test fine but now S&P headed back down to test it again I believe S&P is headed for test of 100dsma at around SP2387ish If S&P gets underneath 100dsma and stays there, you can most likely stick fork in SP2468ish target as well S&P is flirting with 50dsma as I type
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Post by theMist on Jul 6, 2017 14:38:07 GMT -5
VXX 50dsma at 13.64
VIX SCAMs are going to continue to fly IMO VXX should get above 50dsma going into close OR in AH
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Post by theMist on Jul 6, 2017 14:48:00 GMT -5
S&P Hourly First green arrow target hit
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Post by ipath on Jul 6, 2017 14:52:55 GMT -5
when you say "stick a fork in it", do you mean.. "you can forget it"
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Post by theMist on Jul 6, 2017 14:55:50 GMT -5
when you say "stick a fork in it", do you mean.. "you can forget it" yes lol BTW - did you see markets take another leg down when oil pared its gains? Also, BTW this close has a BUY imbalance of 350M and its still weak
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Post by ipath on Jul 6, 2017 15:04:00 GMT -5
when you say "stick a fork in it", do you mean.. "you can forget it" yes lol BTW - did you see markets take another leg down when oil pared its gains? Also, BTW this close has a BUY imbalance of 350M and its still weak Yes I noticed that too. What is a BUY imbalance
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Post by theMist on Jul 6, 2017 15:16:41 GMT -5
Every day going into the market close there is always a TRADE Imbalance If you have access to Bloomberg Terminal or know depth of market makers books, you would be able to see that Imbalance. Bloomberg subscription is very expensive from what I understand. I don't have access to that info BUT usually CNBC's Art Cashin will announce the Imbalance but unfortunately its usually 10-15 mins before the market close Anyway, in a nutshell this is what it is: DEFINITION of 'Order Imbalance' A situation resulting from an excess of buy or sell orders for a specific security on a trading exchange, making it impossible to match the buyers' and sellers' orders. For securities that are overseen by a market maker or specialist, shares may be brought in from a specified reserve to add liquidity, temporarily clearing out excess orders from the inventory so that the trading in the security can resume at an orderly level. Extreme cases of order imbalance may cause suspension of trading until the imbalance is resolved. For example: A large BUY/SELL Imbalance in the billions (usually when pension funds rebalance) is very large and will definitely have an effect on market close
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Post by theMist on Jul 6, 2017 15:22:06 GMT -5
talk to you guys later
still holding 15k long VXX and will close out in AH
Not bad day - UP 14k
ttyl
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Post by ipath on Jul 6, 2017 15:30:54 GMT -5
thanks for the explanation.. have good night
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Post by theMist on Jul 6, 2017 16:31:09 GMT -5
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Post by theMist on Jul 6, 2017 17:23:16 GMT -5
Jim's video
My email to Jim:
Hey, Jim
Hope all is well. Just wanted to send you some notes of mine. I started going long volatility this week instead of shorting.
Technically, this is the 3rd test of the Ascending Triangle. We first gapped up and then backtested real quick before running to SP2453.
IMO - SP 2453 is close enough and is an awesome call still based off that large iH&S. Unless things change with charts, to remain bullish at this point isn't worth the risk/reward in holding out for a few more pennies.
S&P over 2400 is trading very choppy with wild swings resembling a top. I know you see the H&S and I see it playing out with possible a test of SP 100dsma moving avg at around SP2386ish which is right around that rising support. Like you've said, if that support gets taken out then I believe we can forget about SP2468 large iH&S target.
I've already negated the ascending triangle since this will be the 3rd test of it. I expect S&P to break support around low 2400.
Also, vix futures are flirting with backwardation again. Another little spike higher in spot vix and we will be in backwardation which means real fear.
As for catalyst for today, bond market is playing factor in selloff. Yields are rising. FED is also raising rates and will be unloading from their balance sheet very soon. Central banks around the globe are also becoming more hawkish. They're taking away the punch bowl lol. Also, when oil pared its gains today S&P took another leg lower. Energy and Tech have been selling and leading this market lower IMO.
Geopolitical concerns - North Korea is now a real threat. If Trump orders surprise attack, we will see the mother of all selloffs in the markets IMO.
Anyway, just my 2 cents
Jim's video
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Post by theMist on Jul 6, 2017 17:30:05 GMT -5
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Post by huh on Jul 6, 2017 17:57:21 GMT -5
XLF & BAC both look to have put in topping candles
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