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Post by huh on Apr 21, 2017 6:51:17 GMT -5
10 things you need to know before the opening bell The French election is coming. France will go to the polls Sunday for the first round of its presidential election. Four candidates are within percentage points of one another in the polls, but only two will advance. Europe's economic renaissance shows no signs of slowing down. "By country, faster business activity growth in France — the strongest seen since May 2011 — was offset by a moderation in Germany, albeit with the pace of German expansion still running at one of the fastest seen over the past six years," a release from Markit announcing the data said. UK retail sales whiff. Retail sales fell by 1.4% in the first quarter, making for "the third consecutive decrease for the underlying 3 month on 3 month pattern," according to the Office for National Statistics. China is fighting back against fake economic data. The Chinese government has created an economic task force aimed at improving the quality of economic data, Bloomberg says, citing the National Bureau of Statistics. The Borussia Dortmund bus attack may have been an attempt to manipulate the markets. Prosecutors say the man accused of planting explosive devices on the Borussia Dortmund team bus that injured Spanish defender Marc Bartra bought 15,000 put options on Borussia Dortmund's stock before the bombing. Deutsche Bank breaks the Volker Rule. The German investment bank was fined about $157 million for allowing traders to make risky bets and for allowing currency traders to chat online with competitors, Bloomberg says. Visa's total payments spike. The world's largest payments operator earned $0.86 a share as operating revenue jumped 23.5% to $4.48 billion. Visa says total payments volume spiked 37.2% versus a year ago. Stock markets around the world trade mixed. Japan's Nikkei (+1%) led the gains in Asia, and France's CAC (-0.6%) trails in Europe. The S&P 500 is set to open little changed near 2,356. Earnings reports flow. General Electric, Honeywell, Schlumberger, and SunTrust are among the names reporting before the opening bell. US economic data is moderate. Markit manufacturing PMI and Markit services PMI will be released at 9:45 a.m. ET before existing-home sales cross the wires at 10 a.m. ET. The US 10-year yield is unchanged at 2.23%. www.businessinsider.com/opening-bell-april-21-2017-2017-4 |
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Post by huh on Apr 21, 2017 6:51:56 GMT -5
10 things in tech you need to know today 1. Google, Microsoft, Facebook, and major players in the advertising world are discussing adopting ad blocking on a wide scale, Ad Age reports. The new "technology" might be implemented by the end of the year. 2. Wikileaks and its founder Julian Assange may face criminal charges in the US. The Department of Justice is reportedly considering bringing charges against the publisher. 3. Elon Musk is becoming CEO of Neuralink, a company that aims to meld human brains with computers. The Wall Street Journal reports that Musk says it could help humans engage in "consensual telepathy." 4. Two brothers just sold their ad-tech startup Moat to Oracle for $850 million (£664 million). They also have their fingers in dozens of other companies. 5. President Trump has missed his own deadline for coming up with a cybersecurity plan, Politico reports. He had said he would create a team to develop a program within 90 days of taking office. 6. Google's smart home assistant Google Home can now tell the difference between different users' voices. This means it can support multiple accounts, a crucial update for use in communal places like homes. 7. Ultra-expensive juicing company Juicero is offering its customers refunds if they want them. It sells fancy juicers for up to $700 (£547), but people can make the juice by squeezing the juice packs by hand instead. 8. Facebook says its brain sensors are closer than you think. The social network's CTO insists its experimental "Building 8" team is not just a "random idea factory." 9. Confide, the Trump administration's favourite gossip app, is facing a lawsuit. It's allegedly less private than it seems. 10. Instagram is starting to crack down on fake account activity. Instagress, a service that helps people get more followers, is being shut down. www.businessinsider.com/10-things-in-tech-you-need-to-know-april-21-2017-4 |
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Post by huh on Apr 21, 2017 7:06:32 GMT -5
Frontrunning: April 21 Attack overshadows last campaign day in France (Reuters) Paris Gunman Was Questioned by Police in February (WSJ) French PM knocks Le Pen, Fillon stance on security after Paris shooting (Reuters) Battle zone scenes at Paris Champs Elysees (Reuters) In ‘Buy American’ Push, Trump Is Starting in a Hole (WSJ) ... www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-04-21/frontrunning-april-21 |
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Post by huh on Apr 21, 2017 7:23:50 GMT -5
Here's my typical (& expected) bearish take on yesterday's rally:
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Post by huh on Apr 21, 2017 7:24:11 GMT -5
XLF hit the 76.4 retracement of the recent downtrend with yesterday's rally, but spiked over it only enough to fill a recent upside gap (and did anyone notice FAS peaked ~+4% yesterday?)  |
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Post by huh on Apr 21, 2017 7:26:27 GMT -5
I could see AAPL getting up to ~143 for a failed support backtest, but not seeing much more upside for markets in near term other than that Took longer than I expected, but AAPL finally hit that backtest:  |
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Post by huh on Apr 21, 2017 7:27:38 GMT -5
Only a few points higher and DJI will fill it's upside gap (ideally it'll do it on a gap up this morning)  |
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Post by theMist on Apr 21, 2017 7:30:03 GMT -5
VXX Daily chart
Any day now we should know VXX direction lol Market always has a way of squeezing in another daily candle or two before making up its mind I would expect a little selling in S&P this afternoon with weekend, upcoming French elections Risk is still to the upside with VIX SCAMs IMO and best to await further direction 
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Post by huh on Apr 21, 2017 7:34:24 GMT -5
Even Jim pointed out in his video that this recent spike in the S&P began with a gap up, looking identical to the pop back in mid-march which was the head of a potential H&S, and this recent action looks like a smaller H&S following it. He basically presented a pretty strong bearish case with the patterns, but then goes on to explain the bullish targets, completely ignoring the bearish patterns and their targets.
I'm still bearish until S&P breaks the downtrend. But if it ends red today after yesterday's spike, I'm no longer worried about the 2300 target, or even the mid-2200's. Instead, I think I'll sit tight for the Rising Wedge target ~2000. The kind of action seen yesterday makes me even more bearish, assuming the downtrend holds of course.
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Post by theMist on Apr 21, 2017 7:41:34 GMT -5
Even Jim pointed out in his video that this recent spike in the S&P began with a gap up, looking identical to the pop back in mid-march which was the head of a potential H&S, and this recent action looks like a smaller H&S following it. He basically presented a pretty strong bearish case with the patterns, but then goes on to explain the bullish targets, completely ignoring the bearish patterns and their targets. I'm still bearish until S&P breaks the downtrend. But if it ends red today after yesterday's spike, I'm no longer worried about the 2300 target, or even the mid-2200's. Instead, I think I'll sit tight for the Rising Wedge target ~2000. The kind of action seen yesterday makes me even more bearish, assuming the downtrend holds of course. I do have to admit that lately he only looks for the bullish patterns, targets lol And I'm the one that has to point out the smaller bearish patterns (H&S) along with triangles, S&P downside gaps, etc. to him  A few times I watched his videos and said to myself 'how does he not see the H&S pattern?' He does see the large Rising Wedge which he calculates points to SP2100ish and still maintains large inverse H&S target of SP2468 so he's definitely conflicted but leans more on bullish side |
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Post by huh on Apr 21, 2017 7:43:56 GMT -5
Even Jim pointed out in his video that this recent spike in the S&P began with a gap up, looking identical to the pop back in mid-march which was the head of a potential H&S, and this recent action looks like a smaller H&S following it. He basically presented a pretty strong bearish case with the patterns, but then goes on to explain the bullish targets, completely ignoring the bearish patterns and their targets. I'm still bearish until S&P breaks the downtrend. But if it ends red today after yesterday's spike, I'm no longer worried about the 2300 target, or even the mid-2200's. Instead, I think I'll sit tight for the Rising Wedge target ~2000. The kind of action seen yesterday makes me even more bearish, assuming the downtrend holds of course. I do have to admit that lately he only looks for the bullish patterns, targets lol And I'm the one that has to point out the smaller bearish patterns (H&S) along with triangles, S&P downside gaps, etc. to him A few times I watched his videos and said to myself 'how does he not see the H&S pattern?' He does see the large Rising Wedge which he calculates points to SP2100ish and still maintains large inverse H&S target of SP2468 so he's definitely conflicted but leans more on bullish side Can't blame him for leaning on the bullish side given the last 7 years or so. lol And he may be right. I definitely see the possibilities out there for another new high, but I won't play for it until this current downtrend is broken. |
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Post by huh on Apr 21, 2017 7:51:45 GMT -5
If bulls can hold yesterday's rally, then the downtrend will likely be broken (a good example as to why is shown in the Naz futures chart below). However, if it doesn't hold, then the market could have some decent downside (also shown in chart - and if support at previous high is lost, shown by the arrow, then a Double-Top becomes very likely)  |
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Post by theMist on Apr 21, 2017 7:53:19 GMT -5
Jim has been very good along the way with long term calls but he's been wrong with his short term calls lately and even apologized a few weeks ago.
As you know, you need to spend a lot of time studying charts and I know his work schedule hinders him from doing so.
Even if I get lazy or don't feel well, or I'm tired, that's when you can make mistakes. Need to always be focused and devote a lot of time to studying.
He also doesn't use indicators and doesn't look at Futures along with volatility which is a mistake IMO
Also, he's not in the trenches like we are. lol
On a more positive note Jim is very smart and excellent with old school charting techniques. I have a tremendous amount of respect for him and
can't thank him enough for introducing me to Technical Analysis many years ago.
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Post by huh on Apr 21, 2017 8:05:25 GMT -5
Same here, Mist. I do have the upmost respect for Jim. I too was introduced to TA mostly because of him. Watching his videos I see how much influence he has in the way I look at chart patterns even now. I also don't use any indicators at all, and I rarely even look at volatility (when I do it's only VXX & VIX futures) and I ignore volume all together.
I did find that futures can tell you a lot though. The major pivots seem to nearly always happen in AH's with a slightly higher high, or lower low, than the regular hours indices. That little nugget can be a MAJOR clue as to trend changes.
(and now that you know that, take a look at the ES action vs. S&P action that occurred on 03/01)
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Post by theMist on Apr 21, 2017 8:18:01 GMT -5
I see what your seeing Huh. Good eye. And if S&P sells off today and puts in a bearish close will be exactly identical to 03/01 top Good thing I'm long VXX |
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Post by huh on Apr 21, 2017 8:18:49 GMT -5
Keep an eye on Naz futures today (ticker USTEC at investing.com). I'd expect it should backtest ~5430 - the arrow I showed in its chart above. But, if it loses that support, then we can expect some nasty bearish action early next week.
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Post by theMist on Apr 21, 2017 8:25:11 GMT -5
hmmm- I thought Fib Ret tool can be considered an indicator and that you were a big Fib'er maybe not lol |
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Post by theMist on Apr 21, 2017 8:28:34 GMT -5
VIX SCAMs definitely still very dangerous IMO
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Post by huh on Apr 21, 2017 8:30:09 GMT -5
hmmm- I thought Fib Ret tool can be considered an indicator and that you were a big Fib'er maybe not lol I am a big FIBber! lol I always considered indicators as those things not drawn on the price movements - MACD, Volume, RSI, Chaikin, etc. BB's and FIBs would be drawn against the price action. That's the way I think of it anyway, but probably wrong. |
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Post by theMist on Apr 21, 2017 8:44:50 GMT -5
VXX gets back above that 10dsma on daily chart (currently 17.42) and closes above it -- that would be very bullish for VIX SCAMs
that' s critical level to watch
Also, VXX might ('maybe') at some point drop back down to fill morning gap up and then quickly bounce
IMO still dangerous time to be short SCAMs for long term
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