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Post by theMist on Apr 20, 2017 11:13:00 GMT -5
Now possible small S&P inverse H&S in play Have to watch backtest of neckline to see if successful -- that would confirm measures around SP 2370ish and would also line up with falling wedge target
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Post by theMist on Apr 20, 2017 11:23:44 GMT -5
I don't like action in VIX SCAMs today - awaiting direction still
VXX is trading right where it opened
VXX 17.38
no trades
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Post by ipath on Apr 20, 2017 11:37:03 GMT -5
Hey guys, I originally registered with user name beba a few weeks ago after getting invited by Rob, I believe. Forgot my psw and the site would let me recover it so I registered a new one. As we all noticed over the last few days the VIX scams, as you guys call them, have behaved very unusual. IMO this doesn't have anything to do with the SP500, the earning or the market expectations. When looking at VSTOXX, the European volatility index, it is clear that the rise in volatility is due to the uncertainty surrounding the French election. The moves in volatility are showing so many parallels to the rise in volatility before the US election. Only this one started little earlier because it is more uncertain and could cause the end of the EU if France decides to leave
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Post by theMist on Apr 20, 2017 11:39:30 GMT -5
Hey guys, I originally registered with user name beba a few weeks ago after getting invited by Rob, I believe. Forgot my psw and the site would let me recover it so I registered a new one. As we all noticed over the last few days the VIX scams, as you guys call them, have behaved very unusual. IMO this doesn't have anything to do with the SP500, the earning or the market expectations. When looking at VSTOXX, the European volatility index, it is clear that the rise in volatility is due to the uncertainty surrounding the French election. The moves in volatility are showing so many parallels to the rise in volatility before the US election. Only this one started little earlier because it is more uncertain and could cause the end of the EU if France decides to leave Thanks for the post iPath and we welcome your thoughts. We were wondering who iPath was. Rob-
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Post by walnut on Apr 20, 2017 11:45:42 GMT -5
Hi Ipath. I don't follow the euro vix but I had heard that it was going nuts. so maybe you are right.
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Post by theMist on Apr 20, 2017 11:46:21 GMT -5
VIX SCAMs are definitely strong and stuck in neutral while S&P is rising further
In the old days with heavy contango, VXX would be down around 4-5% right now
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Post by ipath on Apr 20, 2017 11:48:39 GMT -5
Hey guys, I originally registered with user name beba a few weeks ago after getting invited by Rob, I believe. Forgot my psw and the site would let me recover it so I registered a new one. As we all noticed over the last few days the VIX scams, as you guys call them, have behaved very unusual. IMO this doesn't have anything to do with the SP500, the earning or the market expectations. When looking at VSTOXX, the European volatility index, it is clear that the rise in volatility is due to the uncertainty surrounding the French election. The moves in volatility are showing so many parallels to the rise in volatility before the US election. Only this one started little earlier because it is more uncertain and could cause the end of the EU if France decides to leave Thanks for the post iPath and we welcome your thoughts. We were wondering who iPath was. Rob- Thanks Rob I read some of your comments and must say that I agree with theMist, the bears couldn't get the SE to 2300 because there are so many ppl on the sidelines waiting to jump in. Also, in order for a meaningful correction to happen, 5%+, I believe all bears must throw the towel and give up. Too many people are talking about a correction, people are hedged, so even if an attempt is made people are hedged and not forced to sell.. I mean the emotional factor doesn't kick in when you are hedged. Many ppl missed the trump train, and wait on the sideline to jump on. I believe in order for a meaningful correction to happen at this point we would need to have one of the catalysts of the rally removed (ie tax cut) or a major even like war to breakout or Trump dies.
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Post by theMist on Apr 20, 2017 11:49:13 GMT -5
iPath can you clarify more -- we are not familiar with Euro VIX and its mechanics (at least I'm not) -- I'm assuming its the same as here in U.S.
Also, what correlations are you seeing? If I recall VIX was down before our elections and night of elections skyrocketed and VIX futures entered backwardation only to be the start of a strong move higher (Trump rally) with very low VIX and very favorable contango in vix futures during the entire Trump rally
BTW - just saw your last post -- I agree that nothing other than disaster can take down this market hard (and I don't mean just a small pullback to SP2300). Everything has been tossed at it. My main concern is about North Korea and potential for war.
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Post by walnut on Apr 20, 2017 11:53:17 GMT -5
vxx not buying in completely yet haha
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Post by ipath on Apr 20, 2017 11:53:43 GMT -5
So if I had to forecast, and most of the time I am wrong so I wont, but if I had to.. I would say after the election the VIX scams drop like they did after the US elections... every bear gives up, the market goes to 2470 in a week and then in about a month from now the correction sets on and takes us to SP500 2000-2100
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Post by walnut on Apr 20, 2017 12:05:10 GMT -5
hope so...
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Post by theMist on Apr 20, 2017 12:08:02 GMT -5
If you look at this chart of VXX Daily chart, right now VXX is at inflection point -- either it will turn down hard like it has so many times before OR it will breakout higher from that large descending channel that it has been in for quite some time. Right now VIX ETPs are stuck in neutral while S&P has been rising and we have vix futures front month in slight backwardation. If S&P sells, I believe VIX ETPs will be very sensitive to the move and will jump higher Right now I am neutral in short term for S&P, but am long term bullish for S&P BTW - We use VXX chart to forecast moves in VIX ETPs (VXX, TVIX, UVXY) since it is unleveraged Smaller timeframe in VXX shows POSSIBLE large bottoming pattern in VXX
VXX Hourly showing potential large bottom pattern
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Post by theMist on Apr 20, 2017 12:17:29 GMT -5
went long VXX small pos (10k shares)
for S&P pullback and backtest
VXX 17.38
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Post by ipath on Apr 20, 2017 12:18:03 GMT -5
It works in a similar way our VIX works. I tried to post some charts, but doesn't let me from work computer.. we work with hippa sensitive info so the system doesn't let me upload the chart.. I can do it from a home computer later when I get home. here is a link to a simple chart that illustrates the US election vix behavior: staticseekingalpha.freetls.fastly.net/uploads/2017/4/19/saupload_VIX.jpg
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Post by Herceg on Apr 20, 2017 12:35:35 GMT -5
It seems like no matter what the news the mkt. will go up..........short the scams and shut off the PC..........LOL
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Post by theMist on Apr 20, 2017 12:35:56 GMT -5
not good trade so far -- giving back 2k of profits on paper
VXX 17.13
just added 5k more VXX - mental stop at 17
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Post by ipath on Apr 20, 2017 12:37:59 GMT -5
Contango/Backwardation at 0%
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Post by theMist on Apr 20, 2017 12:38:28 GMT -5
It seems like no matter what the news the mkt. will go up..........short the scams and shut off the PC..........LOL lol
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Post by theMist on Apr 20, 2017 12:46:30 GMT -5
Mnuchin: Tax plan very soon
could explain the move higher
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Post by walnut on Apr 20, 2017 12:47:31 GMT -5
tax holiday for one year
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