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Post by theMist on Apr 5, 2017 15:08:29 GMT -5
Fed mins mentioned overvalued stock market
that plus Paul Ryan comments sunk the market
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Post by lasvegas77 on Apr 5, 2017 15:11:09 GMT -5
I think you are trying to find one reason to pin this drop on Mist. I don't think that really helps. I was expecting this spike without knowing what the fed was going to say or what Paul Ryan was going to say.
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Post by theMist on Apr 5, 2017 15:12:15 GMT -5
I think you are trying to find one reason to pin this drop on Mist. I don't think that really helps. I was expecting this spike without knowing what the fed was going to say or what Paul Ryan was going to say. good call - so do you see VXX, TVIX spiking higher still? or do you think drops back down tomorrow?
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Post by lasvegas77 on Apr 5, 2017 15:13:18 GMT -5
Tvix tagged the Monday high around 37.80 after hours. Next major milestone is the week prior to that at 43
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Post by lasvegas77 on Apr 5, 2017 15:14:21 GMT -5
Tough call what will happen tomorrow. But my belief is that the trend is up for a while.
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Post by lasvegas77 on Apr 5, 2017 15:17:00 GMT -5
I do expect the market to swing quite wildly with the Chinese president meeting.
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Post by walnut on Apr 5, 2017 15:17:59 GMT -5
I would like to see Trump pinch that guy to see if he is a bot, he is really stiff.
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Post by theMist on Apr 5, 2017 15:35:50 GMT -5
talk to you guys later
ugly reversal day
will see how much more legs and funny how yesterday I was calling for VXX 16.85 area
but even if VXX gaps up tomorrow morning -- VXX has to get back down to mid 15s at some point to backtest those moving averages not saying it will stay there
and I really don't want to see VXX 16.46 get breached
ttyl
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Post by Lasvegas77 on Apr 5, 2017 15:40:04 GMT -5
I disagree Mist. That spike looks very much like the one that brought it up higher in the past. ok. And then what happened afterwards? I'm not saying to be ALL IN SHORT and on MARGIN all the time. Of course you won't be able to get through the spike without being margin called. But looking back, if you had simply kept on a significant short position (not using margin) how much would you be up today? About 28k loss
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Post by theMist on Apr 5, 2017 15:58:20 GMT -5
ok. And then what happened afterwards? I'm not saying to be ALL IN SHORT and on MARGIN all the time. Of course you won't be able to get through the spike without being margin called. But looking back, if you had simply kept on a significant short position (not using margin) how much would you be up today? About 28k loss Wow - really I'm surprised. And if you don't mind me asking -- how much do you have to go to get back to even or are you up hopefully? I know you said you got hurt real bad several times.
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Post by Lasvegas77 on Apr 5, 2017 16:01:21 GMT -5
It's gonna take a while Mist I'm up 135% over 12 months so getting there.
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Post by theMist on Apr 5, 2017 16:03:53 GMT -5
It's gonna take a while Mist I'm up 135% over 12 months so getting there. wow - I hope you get there quickly - I hate to see anyone lose But if you don't mind if you can be specific with what happened would help others to learn as well if you get a chance I know you said it was definitely a learning experience for you. I'm sorry to hear Bro. But don't worry - you will get it back and then some.
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Post by lasvegas77 on Apr 5, 2017 16:19:27 GMT -5
Thanks Mist. I make my own rules and stick with them now as best as I can. I have studied how tvix trades in prior spikes and now I try my best to stick to those rules. That's not to say it's perfect. I miss out on a lot of opportunities short term. I don't really have much against holding over night if the market looks good to me.
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Post by theMist on Apr 5, 2017 16:27:19 GMT -5
Thanks Mist. I make my own rules and stick with them now as best as I can. I have studied how tvix trades in prior spikes and now I try my best to stick to those rules. That's not to say it's perfect. I miss out on a lot of opportunities short term. I don't really have much against holding over night if the market looks good to me. I hear ya - we all live and learn So were you all in short TVIX overnight when it spiked against you? Brexit?
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Post by lasvegas77 on Apr 5, 2017 16:27:26 GMT -5
I always keep in mind that 2011 can happen again or worse. Most tvix shorts never think about how it went up 700% at a time that the market wasn't even in a traditional bear market.
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Post by theMist on Apr 5, 2017 16:28:12 GMT -5
I always keep in mind that 2011 can happen again or worse. Most tvix shorts never think about how it went up 700% at a time that the market wasn't even in a traditional bear market. I see - so you got caught in that real correction of 2011 that sucks
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Post by lasvegas77 on Apr 5, 2017 16:30:05 GMT -5
Mist, I completely avoided the brexit and crash of august 2015. I had already taken measures to get out. My worst month came in december 2015 before the fed hiked rates. I had rules in place that didn't quite hit my stay out rule so I decided to stay in. The markets always go up for the Santa rally, right? I now am more trigger happy to get out of dodge if it gets close to my old rules I had made for myself.
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Post by walnut on Apr 5, 2017 16:30:27 GMT -5
I remember that, 2011 in June, I was in in Bali on the beach and happy I was not in the market
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Post by lasvegas77 on Apr 5, 2017 16:31:03 GMT -5
I was holding over night and I also was sitting on nice gains into the mega spike.
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Post by lasvegas77 on Apr 5, 2017 16:32:31 GMT -5
Walnut, I'm glad you missed that 2011 time. But you have to keep in mind that that will happen again. And what are you doing to ensure you are not just lucky next time? You can't just hope you will be on vacation.
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