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Post by walnut on Mar 13, 2017 14:26:49 GMT -5
There's different categories of risk. Holding over night is one risk. But I also consider the market context. Holding overnight when the market is in a clear downtrend would be more dangerous than when the market is in a confirmed uptrend. Also position sizing is important. If you are able to be heavily short tvix at the top of a pop, you could potentially hold a very long term short and not worry about a pop once it has gone down substantially. It's a lot easier to short tvix and hold it intermediate term than try to get in and out several times a day. Usually you end up making less than doing nothing. Short or intermediate time frames can both work. It can be difficult to adjust your mental time reference and risk tolerance when going from short to longer time frames. Obviously, the variance is going to go way up. You can't go "all in" for days or weeks unless you are quite a gambler.
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Post by lasvegas77 on Mar 13, 2017 14:36:07 GMT -5
Going all in is sometimes safer than nibbling here and there and risking get whip sawed the other way if you were out during a substantial part of the decline that you would have caught staying in the first place.
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Post by lasvegas77 on Mar 13, 2017 14:37:16 GMT -5
I think of it as riding the waves like a surfer does. If you have an awesome wave, you want to stay on it as long as you can.
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Post by walnut on Mar 13, 2017 14:45:03 GMT -5
I know what you mean. The past 6 months have been a great time to have longer term positions, but looking back, A lot of the time over the last 2 years VIX was mostly up over 15 and long term is just not as attractive, too much volatility and lower contango. Hindsight is 20-20. I think we have more good times ahead but for how long?
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Post by theMist on Mar 13, 2017 14:59:26 GMT -5
This possibly can answer your question Walnut S&P 4 Hour chart -- If S&P stays within rising wedge, can reach S&P iH&S target of SP2460ish and after that well....time to look to put on Bear hat. IMO Jim sees the possibility also uploading pictures
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Post by lasvegas77 on Mar 13, 2017 15:23:00 GMT -5
I'm out at 16.63. also covered all my other etns. So 100% cash. Something like 9k profit from Wed.
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Post by lasvegas77 on Mar 13, 2017 15:31:27 GMT -5
Good job mist. you were able to bag a good gain close to my price even though i had to wait an hour longer than youl.
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Post by lasvegas77 on Mar 13, 2017 15:36:35 GMT -5
of course it's already lower now.
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Post by lasvegas77 on Mar 13, 2017 15:37:27 GMT -5
this has been quite a trend for me. All trades are green for me this year. Hopefully can keep that going.
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Post by walnut on Mar 13, 2017 15:38:28 GMT -5
And still it drops
Note to self- 'you idiot, you knew it was going to drop hard soon!'
Just unwilling to deal with fed week.
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Post by lasvegas77 on Mar 13, 2017 15:40:00 GMT -5
I'm seeing some parallels with december 2015. But this is much more muted. Could keep falling into the rate hike and then spike the next day.
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Post by theMist on Mar 13, 2017 16:55:22 GMT -5
I couldn't baby sit vxx short anymore
Getting ready for blizzard
Good trading walnut and Las Vegas
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Post by theMist on Mar 13, 2017 17:42:53 GMT -5
VXX 15 min chart I wanted to point out a few things. If you look at the Head of the large H&S pattern (circled area), you will see a solid dark green candle and its completely outside its upper BBs. These dark filled green candles usually indicate short term tops. I don't know why some chartist (even Jim) chooses to have all candles filled on his settings. Knowing what type of candle is being formed is so important. Then look at how the H&S plays out, it puts in a move below neckline and backtests one time successfully (blue arrow). But look at the pretty steep yellow channel down (and its actually within a larger red channel) after that and almost retests the all time low pretty quickly. Then it bounces and possibly puts in an inverse H&S which if had confirmed and played out, would have taken VXX some where around 18. I've seen many H&S patterns in the S&P which play out like this chart and turn into inverse H&S patterns. The large inverse H&S target I have (SP2460ish) is actually formed off the right side of H&S pattern (continuation). Anyway, the small possible iH&S doesn't validate and instead VXX puts in another backtest of the neckline (green arrow) and forms a small H&S. Small H&S targets measures 16.50 range and large H&S target measures 16.20 range. just something to learn from and watch for in the future... uploading images
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Post by theMist on Mar 13, 2017 17:48:50 GMT -5
VXX Daily Chart Now something to be very watchful for. If VXX gaps down hard tomorrow OR at some point starts making candles completely outside its lower BBs, that would indicate extreme oversold conditions and could take VXX a lot higher. Look at circled areas on chart. Look at what happened to VXX price action after making candles completely outside its lower BBs. Also, note that we closed today right at lower BB (16.66) on daily chart and BBs are pretty narrow now. image hosting
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Post by theMist on Mar 13, 2017 17:55:09 GMT -5
Also, earlier when I was watching VXX 15 min indicators for possible hard bullish cross, I was out of the trade waiting to see if indicators would turn bullish and how VXX price action would react. I know the H&S targets measure lower. But its always just a question of how VXX gets there. Sometimes when VXX indicators cross bullish on VXX 15 min, VXX can pop nicely. The circled areas is what I was watching out for as a potential little pop in VXX and possible expected move. But instead, indicators rolled over and stayed bearish. But once I got confirmation of weak VXX price action and no bullish indicators, I reshorted immediately. pic host
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Post by theMist on Mar 14, 2017 7:10:42 GMT -5
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Post by theMist on Mar 14, 2017 7:13:37 GMT -5
Sold 5k short VXX at 16.76. Max position for me would be about 16k short VXX.
Averaging in slowly
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Post by theMist on Mar 14, 2017 7:14:54 GMT -5
Small H&S VXX target in 16.50 range was hit in premarket/AH VXX 15 min chart print screen
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