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Post by walnut on Jan 15, 2017 15:53:55 GMT -5
BTW - I never looked into it. But do you get an alert when someone posts to Fazination? That would be great if can set up. I think you can set it up to send an email in your account profile. And Huh no offense just joking around... Kinda, also a little concerned If you are right pretty soon you will make a killing.
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Post by theMist on Jan 15, 2017 17:41:03 GMT -5
It's too bad that there isn't a 2x leveraged inverse VIX ETN/ETF. SVXY is only 1X. Unless someone knows of one that I don't and is liquid.
Instead of going long UVXY, it would be better to short that 2X inverse vix etf/etn.
Same goes with FAS, DRN, TNA, SOXL if wanting to go long Financials, REITs, Small Caps, Semis. Better to short FAZ, DRV, TZA, SOXS.
Same holds true if wanting to short Financials, REITs, small caps, semis. Short FAS, DRN, TNA, SOXL as opposed to going long FAZ, DRV, TZA, SOXS.
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Post by walnut on Jan 15, 2017 20:16:05 GMT -5
I think it is better to just be doing something that is inverse linear with the market. Nothing with futures decay like Vix ETN's. VXX etc goes down while the market goes sideways. Since it is notoriously difficult to time a big market correction, I'd say don't be in something that penalizes you so SEVERELY for just parking your money and waiting.
That FAS 3x has had an unbelievable run but at least it does not have contango decay charged against your account to go short the market with it.
and yes I acknowledge that for all I know the big market correction might only be days away.
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Post by theMist on Jan 15, 2017 20:35:32 GMT -5
Thats the exact reason why IMO shorting scams is just about the perfect trade. Going long them for a quick pop is OK but if you mistime it, then can be punishing.
Walnut - I have questions for you and want to ask your advice on how you would play a potential move. But need to go upstairs on computer. On tablet right now
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Post by theMist on Jan 15, 2017 21:05:27 GMT -5
VXX -- I'm thinking of the possibility of this spike in volatility will play out like last August - September 2016 and it just takes a little longer for the upside GAP fill. I'm watching to see if BBs squeeze together and if VXX starts to make candles outside its lower BBs (even possibly with another BREAKAWAY GAP down). That would line up with S&P breaking to new highs and DOW 20k, then S&P trade sidesways a little while before a sharp short term pullback. In hindsight, how would you have played last September 9, 2016 selloff in S&P with subsequent rise in VXX, TVIX, UVXY. Assuming you started to see it coming on 9/6/16 but wasn't exactly sure how far off selloff was but was expecting it in next few days. I know (in hindsight) you could have piled into weeklies by selling weekly spy calls or buying VXX weekly calls. But, in your opinion, what would have been the best trade and how would you have played it? Would you have placed a bearish bet on S&P using a mix of options (either selling SPY calls or buying SPY puts) OR would you have placed bullish options trades on VXX, UVXY? Or simply just bought VXX, TVIX, UVXY? In short, I guess what I'm asking is if you started to see the same setup happening again now and suspected a selloff in S&P and VXX spiking to 26 in next few days or week, how would you personally play it? Keep in mind - during a hard selloff in markets, volatility tends to triple spike but in between spikes they can drop quite a bit before running higher again. Not sure if that kills profits when playing vxx, uvxy options but would be nice to play options instead of ponying up 100-200k to go long UVXY. Charts Below VXX Daily Chart
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Post by walnut on Jan 15, 2017 21:39:17 GMT -5
Selling SPY calls is a great strategy. I measure the strike price choice to sell as a function of your risk tolerance. In a time like late Aug 2016 I would have felt fairly good selling them 1 standard deviation out of the money. Once VXX gapped up that SPY was going to be going down all day. Buy them back that day. Best strategy. The point is to keep your capital safe cause the sure trade is to wait till VXX gaps down in a morning soon and you can almost go all in selling the scams that day.
I wrote a live updating spreadsheet that calculates current standard deviations on anything you want to sell options on, let me know if you are thinking about it and I will tell you the strike prices I would say are good bets to sell at that time.
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Post by walnut on Jan 15, 2017 21:44:24 GMT -5
What is nice about selling SPY calls in a correction is that the market makers can't arbitrarily cut the call prices you are selling into. Because, the put prices are gonna be up and the market maker has to maintain put-call parity, otherwise you could just buy cheap calls, sell expensive puts, and hedge by selling the underlying SPY. That is a risk reversal and would be a sure thing. The only other way the market makers can protect themselves is by widening the bid ask spread. But they are prevented from doing that by the exchanges, they are required to maintain an orderly market.
The point is, it is a time that you almost have the market makers over a barrel, and you can sell overpriced calls.
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Post by theMist on Jan 15, 2017 22:03:24 GMT -5
I noticed that's how you played the last Breakaway gap fill. You waited for the next day gap down. I started shorting it the day of the spike after the gap fill and after selling my uvxy long. I just didn't hold overnight short UVXY overnight. Yours is the safer approach.
However, looking at the spike in VXX from 10/25 - 11/4, if you had jumped in during the first gap down, you would have gotten hurt as it ran from 30 to 38. And I would have made the call that VXX was going to at least 36 (from 30) based off charts (specifically red candle completely outside its lower BB (10/24)).
I'm hoping for a similar type of setup now as back in 9/7 and 10/24. That way I will know the spike is going to happen any day and will be at least back to its UPPER BBs.
Thx. That would be very helpful. I will let you know when/if charts show when I think selloff is real near.
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Post by walnut on Jan 15, 2017 22:24:24 GMT -5
"you would have gotten hurt as it ran from 30 to 38."
I think I did, I kinda partially rode it out there
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Post by walnut on Jan 15, 2017 22:24:52 GMT -5
" I will let you know when/if charts show when I think selloff is real near."
yes please haha
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Post by theMist on Jan 15, 2017 22:34:47 GMT -5
Awesome stuff. Talk to you tomorrow.
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Post by theMist on Jan 16, 2017 10:55:49 GMT -5
Clinton -
Who were those guys you used to post ? Was it in the money stocks or something like that?
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Post by novie08 on Jan 16, 2017 11:55:21 GMT -5
ITMS...used to get free vids, last email I got said 2017 would be the year of volatility. I think I had to pay $299 to read the whole thing; needless to say, didn't do that. Maybe Clint or Jack knows more. Also enjoyed Oscar vids which he used to post as well.
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Post by jacksrbtr on Jan 16, 2017 12:34:51 GMT -5
ITMS...used to get free vids, last email I got said 2017 would be the year of volatility. I think I had to pay $299 to read the whole thing; needless to say, didn't do that. Maybe Clint or Jack knows more. Also enjoyed Oscar vids which he used to post as well. I used to subscribe to them but when they hiked up the monthly cost from $25 to $50 and didn't tell me until 6mos later I left. I didn't think much of their calls anyway - you'd have to be glued to the computer 6 1/2hrs every trading day to take advantage of their trades something I'm not prepared to do anymore life is too short and there's a LOT of beer and loose women out there. Don't tell Cathy I said that.
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Post by jacksrbtr on Jan 16, 2017 12:44:59 GMT -5
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Post by theMist on Jan 16, 2017 13:39:47 GMT -5
ITMS...used to get free vids, last email I got said 2017 would be the year of volatility. I think I had to pay $299 to read the whole thing; needless to say, didn't do that. Maybe Clint or Jack knows more. Also enjoyed Oscar vids which he used to post as well. I used to subscribe to them but when they hiked up the monthly cost from $25 to $50 and didn't tell me until 6mos later I left. I didn't think much of their calls anyway - you'd have to be glued to the computer 6 1/2hrs every trading day to take advantage of their trades something I'm not prepared to do anymore life is too short and there's a LOT of beer and loose women out there. Don't tell Cathy I said that. ROFLMAO Jack. You mean to tell me you'd prefer to spend the rest of your life drinking beer and having fun with loose women OVER spending time with nagging, depressed, miserable, ungrateful, lots of arguing and NO SEX WIVES?!?! I can't imagine why you would want that. lol
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Post by jacksrbtr on Jan 16, 2017 13:50:58 GMT -5
I used to subscribe to them but when they hiked up the monthly cost from $25 to $50 and didn't tell me until 6mos later I left. I didn't think much of their calls anyway - you'd have to be glued to the computer 6 1/2hrs every trading day to take advantage of their trades something I'm not prepared to do anymore life is too short and there's a LOT of beer and loose women out there. Don't tell Cathy I said that. ROFLMAO Jack. You mean to tell me you'd prefer to spend the rest of your life drinking beer and having fun with loose women OVER spending time with nagging, depressed, miserable, ungrateful, lots of arguing and NO SEX WIVES?!?! I can't imagine why you would want that. lol Bwahahahaaaaaaa! J-J-J-just for the record I DID NOT actually say THAT!!!!
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Post by theMist on Jan 16, 2017 14:03:09 GMT -5
All I ask is a chance to prove that my dog can't make me happy.
Just throw in a few beer drinking loose women every so often and we're good to go. ROFLMAO
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Post by walnut on Jan 16, 2017 16:42:32 GMT -5
I have found that the Evan Williams Green label tastes quite good, and somewhat solves that litany of issues that you listed above, Mist. It is $9.59 a quart around here.
I don't have any current info on loose women, sorry.
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Post by theMist on Jan 16, 2017 18:18:18 GMT -5
Ohhhh, I get it now Jack! You meant you'd rather be doing something else rather than being glued to the computer all day! I don't know how I could have surmised that other thing... lol And Walnut, thanks for the tip. You'll know I will have taken you up on your offer when I start posting charts like this... ROFLMAO
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