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Post by theMist on Jan 10, 2017 10:06:04 GMT -5
Yep, VXX going to retest today's lod
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Post by novie08 on Jan 10, 2017 10:06:05 GMT -5
Waiting...but watching.
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Post by theMist on Jan 10, 2017 10:10:02 GMT -5
VXX 15 min chart. Do you see the weak spinning top green candle just after the red hollow? Represents indecision. Needed to see a real solid green candle just after the red hollow to go more aggressive long VXX, UVXY. VXX move off lod is weak but can still grind sideways to up. And VXX didn't take out this morning's opening gap down (common gap which not guaranteed to fill for today). It already dropped to test lod. Can still go either way for today. IMO
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Post by walnut on Jan 10, 2017 10:12:05 GMT -5
Yep I'm waiting for the confirmation too, and probably then some. This has been way too weak.
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Post by walnut on Jan 10, 2017 10:16:44 GMT -5
I'm still feeling a little short term bearish on this market
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Post by theMist on Jan 10, 2017 10:20:12 GMT -5
Normally, I would be completely waiting with you Walnut and have no long UVXY, VXX position until I really see the move back higher.
However, I do believe we are at the bottom for VIX SCAMs or very near it AND we have that upside BREAKAWAY GAP that is still unfilled. They are starting to show some signs of strength. They are not down their usual 5% every day. lmao.
The reason why I have a small UVXY long position on is just in case China blows up overnight and I'm not kicking myself for not having a little bit of UVXY long. lol
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Post by novie08 on Jan 10, 2017 10:20:27 GMT -5
Thinking it's just sideways until the inauguration which I believe is next Friday. Or, that's the excuse du jour. Interesting on uvxy double bottom right out of the gate at 6.33, another double bottom at 6.34...moving up now, hope it continues (I know, hope is not a strategy). I'm only down 2% now, lol.
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Post by theMist on Jan 10, 2017 10:22:48 GMT -5
Definitely starting to look like this move off VXX bottom is going to be a slow grind higher for now UNTIL... lol
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Post by theMist on Jan 10, 2017 10:28:18 GMT -5
Even if I wanted to trade aggressively today I am refrained from doing so...I have to take my wife this afternoon to doctor (routine stuff) around 2pm EST. And if I can't watch SCAMs like a hawk well you know...have to keep it small for now.
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Post by novie08 on Jan 10, 2017 10:52:42 GMT -5
China's inflation slows. Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics showed consumer prices rose 0.2% in December, making for a 2.1% year-over-year gain. Pork, however, a staple of the Chinese diet, saw its price rise 6.2% versus a year ago. Interesting. Just saw that Chinese PPI hit a 5-yr. high on CNBC. They ought to get their stories straight.
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Post by theMist on Jan 10, 2017 10:54:09 GMT -5
Huh, not sure if I was clear or explained it properly re VXX Minding the GAPs.
On 12/28/16, VXX made an ALL TIME LOW of $23.62. On Tuesday 1/3/17, VXX closed at lod $23.64. On Wednesday, it gapped down (BREAKAWAY GAP) and HOD was $23.43.
SO, shares never traded for VXX at $23.62-$23.43 (BREAKAWAY GAP) at anytime. I know its only at 19 cent GAP and could explain why its taking longer for VXX to fill.
If you remember the time before that, VXX made a BREAKAWAY GAP, then another BREAKAWAY GAP the next day, then an EXHAUSTION GAP the following day. EXHAUSTION GAP was clearly an indication of reversal.
However, I'm sure wit the next spike VXX will clearly overshoot and I'm sure will rise up to minimum $23.64.
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Post by novie08 on Jan 10, 2017 10:55:08 GMT -5
Re: UXVY...don't like the h*s formed on the 1, 3 and 5 minute charts.
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Post by theMist on Jan 10, 2017 10:55:26 GMT -5
S&P has to rise back up in short term and possibly clearly form the RS of H&S top. That's why VIX SCAMs are still under a little downward pressure. But of course way too early to call move in S&P.
After a $130k run since elections, I currently am giving back $300 with my slowly averaged in UVXY position. lol
Huh, what do you see?
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Post by walnut on Jan 10, 2017 10:59:22 GMT -5
China's inflation slows. Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics showed consumer prices rose 0.2% in December, making for a 2.1% year-over-year gain. Pork, however, a staple of the Chinese diet, saw its price rise 6.2% versus a year ago. Interesting. Just saw that Chinese PPI hit a 5-yr. high on CNBC. They ought to get their stories straight. Isn't China aggressively supporting their currency since Trump caused it to weaken? Who knows what the real vs nominal PPI is.
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Post by theMist on Jan 10, 2017 11:00:14 GMT -5
Novie, UVXY, VXX can still see a little more downward pressure today and tomorrow but those small H&S aren't clearly defined and as Huh would say they are at the BOTTOM of a downtrend. However, if that VXX small H&S does play out, VXX can take another leg lower and can still see low $21s. Have to be open minded.
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Post by theMist on Jan 10, 2017 11:09:39 GMT -5
S&P backtested slanted H&S neckline with this move higher. Have to see which way it breaks and is at an inflection point. Could still rise up a little further to form larger RS or can drop from here. Waiting...Watching.
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Post by theMist on Jan 10, 2017 11:21:22 GMT -5
VXX retesting all time lows and looks like wants to take another leg lower. As markets stay calm and S&P stays flat or rises, Contango will keep working on VIX SCAMs (contango currently at 12%).
Out of $130K run, I currently gave back $800 bucks and may jettison out of small UVXY long trade and look to jump back in aggressively another day. Was hoping to get an overnight move in futures. BUT VIX SCAMs should be very near their short term bottoms. Still holding (5k out of 30k max). Haven't decided yet. VXX, UVXY needs to rise off its bottom. Jury is still out and have to see how S&P reacts at inflection point.
Still holding...
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Post by theMist on Jan 10, 2017 11:27:29 GMT -5
Huh, what are you seeing? One more rise up to retest highs and dow 20k before the big one? lol
S&P common GAP fill would be around 2270ish and retest of that very small H&S pattern neckline.
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Post by walnut on Jan 10, 2017 11:27:58 GMT -5
Still can't believe these vix scams lol
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Post by walnut on Jan 10, 2017 11:29:18 GMT -5
My uncle once told me, buy real estate, even though it always seems too high at the time.
I say, sell VXX, even though it always seems too low.
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