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Post by novie08 on Jan 9, 2017 9:52:56 GMT -5
Novie - For UVXY the BREAKAWAY GAP is at $7.47. The gap in the $8 dollar range is a Common GAP. The BREAKAWAY GAP is the one that is practically 100% GUARANTEED to get FILLED over few trading days (usually within 2 week) AS LONG AS IT SHOWS ON VXX CHART. MOST IMPORTANT: When charting moves in TVIX, UVXY (especially playing GAPs), you ALWAYS have to check or chart VXX. I always use VXX when charting VIX SCAMs. However, that's not to say that UVXY cannot overshoot the BREAKAWAY UPSIDE GAP to $7.47 and go much higher. All I'm saying is that the GUARANTEED move over next few days is a MINIMUM move to UVXY $7.47. Sorry to make you repeat...old and slow nowadays. Just bought a small pos, may add if get a chance. |
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Post by theMist on Jan 9, 2017 10:05:00 GMT -5
VXX upside BREAKAWAY GAP is at $23.43-$23.62 ($23.62 to fill) And like you said Huh, VXX just filled the Common GAP to $22.36. New Note: Was also a back test of that small H&S neckline.
I hope I'm explaining clearly. I've made many really good calls in the past having knowledge of BREAKAWAY GAPs.
Keep it small Novie just in case UVXY turns back down and goes red. Within next 2 weeks (most likely next few trading days), I expect UVXY to fill that upside BREAKAWAY GAP to $7.31-7.47 ($7.47 to fill).
Not easy going long the SCAMs and time spikes. BUT its practically GUARANTEED to fill UVXY $7.47 in near term (should within 2 weeks). Play it as you will. We all have different risk tolerance.
So far it looks like adding UVXY long on Friday was a good move playing that bottom green hammer candle. Could be the move off the bottom that takes out the upside BREAKAWAY GAP. We'll see.
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Post by novie08 on Jan 9, 2017 10:09:08 GMT -5
Did keep it small, they scared me there for about 5 minutes, but feeling more confident now. Have already set my sell at 7.47 gtc. It's so frigging cold here my brain is about frozen.  Where's my friend Dino? Aren't you trading these scams?  |
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Post by huh on Jan 9, 2017 10:15:23 GMT -5
None of the 3 major indices have tested their bottom BB's since last testing their top BB's back in mid Decenmber. And on Friday S&P tested its top BB again while NDX closed above its. However, DJI has yet to test its top BB for a second time. So there's a good chance we could see DJI up ~70-80 points or so to get that test in. Instead of "good chance", I should have said "decent chance". lol DJI would tag its upper BB ~20,009 now, just barely over that 20,000 mark everyone's been talking about. |
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Post by theMist on Jan 9, 2017 10:29:22 GMT -5
No trades still. Still holding real small UVXY long position from Friday. Have to be open that can still go lower and test $6.23 (ALL TIME LOW) in short term before it reverses. VXX, UVXY right at support now of rising channel as I type and breaking.
Is anyone trading anything else? Or are we all watching the SCAMs now. LMAO
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Post by novie08 on Jan 9, 2017 10:32:57 GMT -5
UVXY painful enough this am. Just added, must be crazy not liking the waterfall here from 6.66, lol. I know how they love those numbers.
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Post by theMist on Jan 9, 2017 10:39:22 GMT -5
Without a doubt Novie, going long UVXY, TVIX, VXX is a difficult trade. Far easier, to SHORT them after the upside BREAKAWAY GAP gets filled.
That's why Huh (and I would agree) not recommended (especially for first timers). They can flash signs of strength and then the carpet gets pulled out from underneath you. Shorting them at top of spikes is the easier money as Walnut would say.
Can make you real emotional and cause to make not good moves. Keep in mind I'm up a lot. I would have preferred you nibbled a little on Friday and average in over several days /week.
Keep in mind they can still grind lower BUT can also skyrocket back up real fast. Risk/Reward isn't worth being short them right now. IMO
If we were at the roullette table, this is the equivalent of me betting HEAVILY on RED (say $1500 with each roll) and nailing it for a LONG time and now I see good reason to bet BLACK and I'm making $100 bets with each roll. lol
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Post by clinton on Jan 9, 2017 10:41:26 GMT -5
new goro sell targets
5.50
5.85
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Post by theMist on Jan 9, 2017 10:48:30 GMT -5
Looks like Bear flag forming on S&P. Waiting to see if it breaks to downside OR looks to rise back up and backtest RISING WEDGE break.
Yep - rising back up to back test
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Post by novie08 on Jan 9, 2017 11:00:37 GMT -5
Trying to decide whether to get out altho know at some point soon, that gap closes. Isn't Monday the day mutual funds buy?
On a happier note, here come the metals.
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Post by theMist on Jan 9, 2017 11:05:57 GMT -5
Not sure Novie
How much UVY long do you have? And out of how much allocated for the trade?
No trades for me so far
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Post by Herceg on Jan 9, 2017 11:21:03 GMT -5
AYI was crazy today.......down almost 40 only to bounce up almost 20..................what a trade it would have been if one traded properly...........only trade was small loss in ETRM.............tried playing the lottery......LOL......
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Post by theMist on Jan 9, 2017 11:21:22 GMT -5
DOW reaching for 20K. Going to be interesting when (if) it hits.
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Post by theMist on Jan 9, 2017 11:27:10 GMT -5
Added a little more UVXY. Nibbling real, real, real, small. Only 500 shares added. Now 3k out of 30K allocated.
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Post by theMist on Jan 9, 2017 11:28:34 GMT -5
S&P 15 min chart  |
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Post by novie08 on Jan 9, 2017 11:43:13 GMT -5
Only long 400 shares, probably won't allocate more. Hoping now for a cup/handle formation! Miners are making up for loss.
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Post by theMist on Jan 9, 2017 11:44:37 GMT -5
So far that green hammer bottom candle from Friday holding up (circle). Looking to add a little more UVXY long (nibble). Should backtest off that rising channel break at least by EOD. Also, another green bottoming hammer candle (inside triangle). Has confirmation. Question is: Is this the move take takes UVYX higher to fill upside BREAKAWAY GAP or a temporary bounce and moves lower. VXX 5 min chart  |
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Post by theMist on Jan 9, 2017 12:27:33 GMT -5
Was trying to gauge how much you were in on the trade. For instance, when I look to trade I set aside how much TOTAL I allocate for the trade.
So for example, say you allocate monies to go 5k shares UVXY long. As of now, your only 400 shares UVXY long indicating a very small position.
That's why I'll post, 3k long UVXY out of 30K max. So you can gauge how much I'm in.
Obviously if I were 30K long right now -- would mean I'm ALL IN on the trade.
VIX SCAMs can still turn lower in short term before reversing. IMO
Just the way I personally approach trading. We all have different risk tolerance and trading styles.
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Post by theMist on Jan 9, 2017 12:39:41 GMT -5
For now, VXX is finding some support in 21.70 area and VXX is forming small Head and Shoulders patterns BUT as Huh would say, they're at the bottom of a downtrend.  So I see VXX getting very close to a short term bottom. If not today, then should be over next few days. IMO If you're seeing a SELLOFF in the markets, the better way is to short SPY, or FAS, UPRO, UDOW if your not comfortable being long the VIX SCAMs. And sometimes they can seriously frustrate a trader. For example, the S&P is currently down 3 handles and VXX is down 1.49%. It's because of Contango. When under Heavy contango, it takes hard selling in the S&P for VIX Scams to pop (like this morning) but as soon as S&P hits support, they drop like a brick. Some traders will chase (I've done it too) thinking this it. This is the move they're going to continue to scream higher and go ALL IN only to watch them turn back down and collapse. Going long the VIX Scams is a VERY difficult trade. The easier trade is to short them after the upside BREAKAWAY GAP gets filled. Hope all this helps. And forgive me If I sound like I'm teaching or sound like I'm preaching. Just trying to demonstrate from my experience. I've known the VIX SCAMs for a long time. They were just over for dinner last night. lmao. just kidding - trying to have some fun on a boring trading day |
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Post by theMist on Jan 9, 2017 13:16:13 GMT -5
I'm liking the move in GORO Clinton. Staying above neckline of H&S and indicators still bullish. Price action staying above 200dsma and 100sma and is pushing on those UPPER BBs stretching them wider.
Just have to be careful that it doesn't pull a Twitter-esq type move and GAPs down one morning and doesn't look back. But so far so good!
I don't know much re Fundamentals for GORO. Fundamentals always good to know when trading stocks.
Good trading Clinton and Novie
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