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Post by huh on Dec 21, 2016 8:04:34 GMT -5
10 things you need to know before the opening bell The Dow is getting closer to 20,000. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.5% on Tuesday, finishing at 19,974.62. It's expected to open little changed on Wednesday. Oil is on track to close at its best level since July 2015. West Texas Intermediate crude oil trades up 0.6% at $53.63 a barrel ahead of crude-oil inventory data, which will be released at 10:30 a.m. ET. The world's oldest bank is running out of cash. The Italian lender Monte Paschi warned it would run out of cash in four months, sooner than the 11 months investors had previously thought. Blackstone is winding down its "big bet" hedge fund. Senfina has lost 24% this year through November as bets in its center book, which featured managers' best ideas, saw the biggest losses, Reuters reports. Tesla upped its credit lines. The electric-car maker expanded its borrowing capabilities by about $500 million, Bloomberg reports. Tesla now has about $1.8 billion available through its credit lines. Nike beats. The sneaker giant earned $0.50 a share, easily beating the $0.43 that analysts had forecast, as sales rose by 8% excluding the currency impact to $8.2 billion. FedEx whiffs. The global logistics company earned an adjusted $2.80 a share, well below the $2.91 that Wall Street was expecting, as the growth of its FedEx Ground system led to some of the increased costs. Stock markets around the world trade mixed. China's Shanghai Composite (+1.1%) led the gains in Asia, and France's CAC (-0.5%) lags in Europe. Earnings reports trickle out. Bed Bath & Beyond and Micron Technology are among the names reporting after markets close. US economic data is light. Existing-home sales will be released at 10 a.m. ET. The US 10-year yield is little changed at 2.55%. markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/10-things-you-need-to-know-before-the-opening-bell-1001621631 |
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Post by huh on Dec 21, 2016 8:05:31 GMT -5
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Post by huh on Dec 21, 2016 8:06:04 GMT -5
Frontrunning: December 21 Futures little changed after Dow, Nasdaq hit records (Reuters); Europe Stocks’ Rally Dims as Banks Drop; Oil Gains (BBG) Monte dei Paschi says could run out of liquidity after four months (Reuters) Spanish Banks Lose EU Case on Mortgage Interest Repayments (BBG) Russia says trust needed for global oil output deal to be success (Reuters) U.S. plays down absence from Moscow talks on Syria, says not 'sidelined' (Reuters) Leadership rivalry threatens ambitions of Italy's 5-Star Movement (Reuters) Germany Rethinks Reluctance Toward Conspicuous Policing (WSJ) Clinton lawyer blasts FBI after email search warrant release (Reuters) PBOC’s Shadow Banking Curbs Risk Deepening Junk Bond Rout (BBG) Oil Extends Its Gains as Report Shows U.S. Stockpile Drop (BBG) Judge Says $25 Million Trump University Settlement Is Fair (BBG) Bring Back Jobs From China? In Shenzhen, They Aren’t That Worried (WSJ) Berlin Christmas markets shut, others tighten security (Reuters) Court Orders Airlines to Stop Dumping Poop During Flights (BBG) Big Banks Are Stocking Up on Blockchain Patents (BBG) Young Americans Living With Parents at a 75-Year High (WSJ) Coke moves away from AB InBev with Africa bottling deal (Reuters) Saudi Telecom says board approves $100 million Careem stake buy (Reuters) www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-12-21/frontrunning-december-21 |
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Post by huh on Dec 21, 2016 8:14:06 GMT -5
Huh-- Have you seen MNKD the last 2 days? No, I hadn't even noticed. Fell off my watch list when some browser cookies expired. I'd be careful of this one until it sees down to at least .20's. Honestly though, I'm seeing a potential target for ~.10 now, which means it'll probably go to zero. Watch those FIB resistances from the 06/24/16 high. Hit the 50 FIB yesterday, and next FIBs are .97 and 1.09. Remember how crazy that .20's downside target seemed last year in November? |
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Post by huh on Dec 21, 2016 8:24:04 GMT -5
I do think the Nikkei is done squeezing that H&S now. LT downside target down ~9000, or 53.5% lower than here  Nikkei update for H&S squeeze on weekly chart. Showing why 18600 is major resistance (FIB). Could go higher perhaps for a head test, or even a new high, but risky until it proves above this resistance.  Go Nikkei Go Nikkei Up 5% since. Looking for at least 18600 (currently 18330) Nikkei - H&S getting squeezed on weekly  |
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Post by walnut on Dec 21, 2016 8:33:01 GMT -5
VIX 1 to 2 month contango officially fell to only 10.66 last night as the Dec contract expired. But the true contango number for the scams is still 26%, the VIX short term index is only the Jan contract today.
But, that VIX index number is too low at 11.32, too easy for it to bounce from here, I'll have to wait to short.
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Post by huh on Dec 21, 2016 8:38:52 GMT -5
All of the VIX scams have nearly hit all long term downside targets, and those patterns are a couple years old now.
I think a little lower and they'll be due for a huge bounce.
JMHO
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Post by theMist on Dec 21, 2016 8:51:24 GMT -5
I still see at least one more move lower in the VIX scams before chance of a pop. Markets are still very calm and charts still showing that they're descending lower - MACD, MACD Histogram on Daily TVIX also looks like its about to roll over. Next week, with last day of tax selling should be interesting. I believe the bounce in the VIX scams will start with an overnight move (gap up).
Also, I've never seen them close with 3 daily gaps in a row. So if you're going to chase shorting them today, put in your short order (at minimum) above yesterdays low of day (for TVIX 8.55). So I would expect todays high (on cash charts) for TVIX to be anywhere from 8.55 to 8.65.
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Post by huh on Dec 21, 2016 8:57:00 GMT -5
I still see at least one more move lower in the VIX scams before chance of a pop... I agree, though I'm not seeing anything lower than that 23 area for VXX, at least not right now. If VXX goes red, I'd expect its next ST downside target is $25 (would still like to see ~$23 to complete all LT downside targets) New ST VXX downside target ~24.00 |
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Post by walnut on Dec 21, 2016 9:05:02 GMT -5
The problem is VIX is now at 11.21 and it kinda doesn't get any lower than that. Any further gains are going to need to come just from contango dropping, which may happen. Yes the odds are VXX is going to drop today, but for me the risk reward just isn't there anymore with the VIX index that low. I'll just have to wait.
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Post by huh on Dec 21, 2016 9:07:26 GMT -5
The problem is VIX is now at 11.21 and it kinda doesn't get any lower than that. Any further gains are going to need to come just from contango collapsing, which may happen. Odds are VXX is going to drop today, but for me the risk reward just isn't there anymore with the VIX index that low. I'll just have to wait. I agree with you. You asked before (rhetorically) how to know when they might bounce big. Well, I think this is the type of set-ups when they do - when there's not much more room for downside in the near term. VIX scams hitting new all time lows already in pre. Another gap down? Is that what you meant by 3 in a row, Mist, if they gap down today? |
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Post by walnut on Dec 21, 2016 9:10:19 GMT -5
The last time VIX was this low was early August 2015, just before the huge VIX spike. Not saying I am predicting anything like that though.
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Post by huh on Dec 21, 2016 9:12:25 GMT -5
The last time VIX was this low was early August 2015, just before the huge VIX spike. Not saying I am predicting anything like that though. I am |
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Post by theMist on Dec 21, 2016 9:14:28 GMT -5
Monday and Tuesdays gap fill will happen - 100% guaranteed. Just a matter of time. Thinking next week. Latest first week in January.
Also, thinking intermediary top in S&P around 2290-2300.
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Post by theMist on Dec 21, 2016 9:27:24 GMT -5
Never seen 3 daily OPEN ended/ BREAKAWAY GAPS on Cash Charts for VIX Scams. These are GAPS where price action NEVER traded before in its entire existence.
If VIX Scams HOD today doesn't reach yesterdays LOD, that would be considered another OPEN or BREAKAWAY GAP. I've NEVER seen it happen.
GAPS where shares NEVER traded in its entire existence ALWAYS GET FILLED. So VXX gapped down on Monday and its HOD never reached its LOD on Friday. It left an UNFILLED OPEN GAP where shares NEVER traded in its entire existence. The same thing happened on Tuesday. Tuesday VXX gapped down and its HOD never reached its LOD on Monday. Another UNFILLED OPEN GAP where shares NEVER traded in its entire existence.
These GAPS will ALWAYS get filled. Also, I've never seen it happen 3 days in a row. That would be unbelievable complacency IMO.
So, VXX HOD today should be at minimum be the VXX LOD from yesterday which is 24.10. IF NOT, that would mean 3 UNFILLED GAPS on daily chart in a row. I've never seen that happen.
At some point within next few trading days (probably next week), I expect VXX to rise to minumum target of 25.45.
Sorry if I'm not explaining it too well. I've made some really good calls in the past using this GAP theory.
Hope this helps.
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Post by huh on Dec 21, 2016 9:29:41 GMT -5
Never seen 3 daily OPEN ended/ BREAKAWAY GAPS on Cash Charts for VIX Scams. These are GAPS where price action NEVER traded before in its entire existence. If VIX Scams HOD today doesn't reach yesterdays LOD, that would be considered another OPEN or BREAKAWAY GAP. I've NEVER seen it happen. GAPS where shares NEVER traded in its entire existence ALWAYS GET FILLED. So VXX gapped down on Monday and its HOD never reached its LOD on Friday. It left an UNFILLED OPEN GAP where shares NEVER traded in its entire existence. The same thing happened on Tuesday. Tuesday VXX gapped down and its HOD never reached its LOD on Monday. Another UNFILLED OPEN GAP where shares NEVER traded in its entire existence. These GAPS will ALWAYS get filled. Also, I've never seen it happen 3 days in a row. That would be unbelievable complacency IMO. So, VXX HOD today should be at minimum be the VXX LOD from yesterday which is 24.67. IF NOT, that would mean 3 UNFILLED GAPS on daily chart in a row. I've never seen that happen. At some point within next few trading days (probably next week), I expect VXX to rise to minumum target of 25.45. Sorry if I'm not explaining it too well. I've made some really good calls in the past using this GAP theory. Hope this helps. You explained it perfectly. Great info! |
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Post by huh on Dec 21, 2016 9:33:29 GMT -5
...But... yesterday's low in VXX was 24.10, right?
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Post by walnut on Dec 21, 2016 9:38:38 GMT -5
Market seems on auto-pilot to the media hyped arbitrary Dow 20,000. Which is 1/2 of 1% away.
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Post by theMist on Dec 21, 2016 9:39:01 GMT -5
So far -- VXX HOD is yesterdays LOD (24.10). So the 3 day in a row daily unfilled GAP still has NEVER happened. TVIX missed it by a penny at 8.54. I've seen this happen before -- it happens because of leverage. REMEMBER - like I've said in the past when it comes to GAPS it COUNTS ONLY ON VXX since it is unleveraged. VIX Scams should continue to drop a little lower and I believe HOD for VIX scams is in for today but I wouldn't count on it 100% and back up the truck. LOL I could be wrong and end of day could still see some selling in the markets and VIX scams can still make new HOD but I doubt it.  |
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Post by theMist on Dec 21, 2016 9:58:02 GMT -5
Look at daily chart of TVIX. Specifically 7/7/16 - 7/8/16. You will see a BREAKAWAY GAP that was NEVER filled. 44.75-46.00 However, if you check the chart of VXX on 7/7/16-7/8/16 you'll see a gap 50.72-51.44. However, shares did trade in that range on 6/7/16. That's why you always have to check VXX (which is unleveraged) when playing gaps in VIX scams. If TVIX, UVXY have unfilled GAPS, the GAP also must exist on VXX to call with absolute certainty that those GAPS will get filled. Please note that this type of knowledge only comes with spending hours and hours, days and days at the casino. lol |
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