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Post by huh on Nov 9, 2016 18:00:23 GMT -5
The needs of the many...
It sucks, but in a big picture point of view, it all makes perfect sense.
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Post by walnut on Nov 9, 2016 18:06:10 GMT -5
I'm not so sure. The original purpose of insurance was to protect against catastrophic losses by sharing risk among a larger pool. We have morphed into a system where you are asked for your insurance card for every little flu or hangnail. That is a pay as you go system generally that has run up costs by including a huge middle man that should not be involved. Brain tumors, cancer, heart attacks, those are catastrophic losses that need to be insured against.
For this reason, dental insurance is an even bigger fiasco.
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Post by huh on Nov 9, 2016 18:35:13 GMT -5
I'm not so sure. The original purpose of insurance was to protect against catastrophic losses by sharing risk among a larger pool. We have morphed into a system where you are asked for your insurance card for every little flu or hangnail. That is a pay as you go system generally that has run up costs by including a huge middle man that should not be involved. Brain tumors, cancer, heart attacks, those are catastrophic losses that need to be insured against. For this reason, dental insurance is an even bigger fiasco. I agree, but unfortunately we only have 3 industries left that off major employment of US citizens; one to teach people, one to make them unhealthier (restaurants), and one to make them healthier again (medical). The affordable care act not only maintained the employment levels in one of those during the economic downturn, but actually increased it, by a lot since.
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Post by huh on Nov 9, 2016 19:02:15 GMT -5
Here's what I think it all boils down to. The Fed's major concern is the lack of demand for bond buyers now that the foreign buyers have stepped away. This means that they need domestic buyers, and a lot of them. However, for this to happen, the market would pullback hard. So the first thing to do is insure that the major banks have enough cash to withstand such a downturn (stress tests & QE). The next thing to do is to begin getting money moved into bonds (recent changes to many 401Ks). The other investors will follow as the market falls. While all this happens, they need to try to keep the economy afloat, so they implement policies to stimulate or at least retain employment opportunities. And the medical industry is one of the few sectors that sees the least adverse impact during a market downturn (defense is another).
Now all of this will likely mean a falling market, housing values, perhaps negative interest rates and perhaps even wars (currency, trade and actual).
So who wants to be President while all this goes down? And there, IMO, is the reason for the lack of great Presidential candidates (besides more riches and more power, the rich and powerful only have one other thing left to acquire - legacy). I'm thinking a whole lot of people didn't want that job over the next few years.
I know all this seems like a non-trade related rant. But it really isn't. I warned about the when and how of QE tapering. I warned about the interest rate increases to follow. I even recently warned about the pullback in TLT.
Now I'm warning beware this bull market. I've studied the charts of all the great tops. They all consist of three things; a major topping pattern, a quick dive in bonds, and finally crazy whipsaw action. We've got 2 of the 3 and the 3rd is now underway. I've said for year banks would lead the last leg of this rally. Guess which sector has been one of the best performing (if not the best) over the last few weeks?
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Post by walnut on Nov 9, 2016 20:02:51 GMT -5
I couldn't resist and sold VXX again. Now you are talking about topping patterns again ha ha
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Post by dino on Nov 9, 2016 20:27:02 GMT -5
I'm not so sure. The original purpose of insurance was to protect against catastrophic losses by sharing risk among a larger pool. We have morphed into a system where you are asked for your insurance card for every little flu or hangnail. That is a pay as you go system generally that has run up costs by including a huge middle man that should not be involved. Brain tumors, cancer, heart attacks, those are catastrophic losses that need to be insured against. For this reason, dental insurance is an even bigger fiasco. I agree, but unfortunately we only have 3 industries left that off major employment of US citizens; one to teach people, one to make them unhealthier (restaurants), and one to make them healthier again (medical). The affordable care act not only maintained the employment levels in one of those during the economic downturn, but actually increased it, by a lot since. Don't forget Tech. I'm in Tech. Tech is big in the U.S. I've had more work than I know what to do with since 1992 when I got in. Not kidding.
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Post by clinton on Nov 9, 2016 20:41:49 GMT -5
Here's what I think it all boils down to. The Fed's major concern is the lack of demand for bond buyers now that the foreign buyers have stepped away. This means that they need domestic buyers, and a lot of them. However, for this to happen, the market would pullback hard. So the first thing to do is insure that the major banks have enough cash to withstand such a downturn (stress tests & QE). The next thing to do is to begin getting money moved into bonds (recent changes to many 401Ks). The other investors will follow as the market falls. While all this happens, they need to try to keep the economy afloat, so they implement policies to stimulate or at least retain employment opportunities. And the medical industry is one of the few sectors that sees the least adverse impact during a market downturn (defense is another). Now all of this will likely mean a falling market, housing values, perhaps negative interest rates and perhaps even wars (currency, trade and actual). So who wants to be President while all this goes down? And there, IMO, is the reason for the lack of great Presidential candidates (besides more riches and more power, the rich and powerful only have one other thing left to acquire - legacy). I'm thinking a whole lot of people didn't want that job over the next few years. I know all this seems like a non-trade related rant. But it really isn't. I warned about the when and how of QE tapering. I warned about the interest rate increases to follow. I even recently warned about the pullback in TLT. Now I'm warning beware this bull market. I've studied the charts of all the great tops. They all consist of three things; a major topping pattern, a quick dive in bonds, and finally crazy whipsaw action. We've got 2 of the 3 and the 3rd is now underway. I've said for year banks would lead the last leg of this rally. Guess which sector has been one of the best performing (if not the best) over the last few weeks? So who wants to be President while all this goes down? Bring out the patsy.
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Post by clinton on Nov 9, 2016 20:57:42 GMT -5
gold up 1%
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Post by jacksrbtr on Nov 9, 2016 21:11:18 GMT -5
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Post by dino on Nov 9, 2016 21:12:41 GMT -5
I've been playing MUX. It's cheap and has pretty good swings. Just thought I'd mention it since you've been playing GORO a lot...
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Post by Cashfilly on Nov 9, 2016 22:14:14 GMT -5
Be patient my friends.... this was a difficult time... everyone has become so reactive... there is something to say about getting back to basics! Doesn't anyone miss when the market moved as one with economic data? So many raw feelings must be dealt with; Change is Never Easy. Stop market manipulations and get back to price competitiveness from uhhhh....real competition? The whole thing will not be thrown out... the guy has a brain and what he lacks he will get proper advisement as he's unafraid of surrounding himself with brilliance... His pride will not be bought by backroom deals and personal change, but rather reunification of this country and Basic Business... be patient. We all gave Obama that chance.... these are the rules our country abides by.... Maybe it's our turn to not be self-fulfilling and expecting immediate gratification, but rather a Patient Patriot uniting and at least giving this "Game Changer" a chance. Personally, I've returned to the basics and am patiently waiting indicators to return to normal and common sense to win the day! Trump railed against injustice and used tones, words, and unfortunately tweets to garnish himself daily front page attention. He called out the issues that weren't popular, was the first to make a call on wrong-doing and issues that no one else would confront. Who would say such things and chance your obvious heartfelt reactions. Moments/days later his talking points were digested and caught attention from his challengers. Once he had your attention and some support, he no longer needed the shock value...the rhetoric was toned down. Remember his verbal straight focus on "toning it down"? Doesn't Everyone get his rhetoric was an inclusive tease? Putting himself on the same level? He made light of himself to unite with the supporters on common ground saying it's ok to disagree but doing so while promoting true growth for our country.. This is no ordinary President Elect. His ego is derived from the success and unification of everyone! I love any political force with the grace to never be self promoting but to always use We, Your, & Our. My money is on all of us, basic correlations, but most importantly the Organic Growth from that Great American Will of the people!! Patience my friends..This President-Elect deserves our patience. US GDP will once again return to it's proper place for ALL Americans. Be willing to Believe!
Big shout out to the CELG winner!
I have surrounded myself with top achievers within each and every industry.... Do you know what they all have in common? HUGE EGOS. 2008 was historical, but 2016 will become The Great American movement!
Thank you for your tolerance from a very old friend. I miss so many of you!
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Post by Herceg on Nov 10, 2016 10:24:23 GMT -5
Our insurance certainly went up an unusual amount. And I have a pre-existing condition which makes insurance a big problem for me. So from our point of view as a consumer, it has been a big F' ing joke. In the end they would have been bailed out if they have not yet, which means pissing away more of "OUR" money and not the "F'n" politicians.........just like bank bail outs.............all a waste of my money.............
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