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Post by Herceg on Sept 21, 2016 9:56:03 GMT -5
Expecting a pop and run after no raise hike.....................may last only awhile and drop depending on her speech.....
JMO and BOL...........
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Post by walnut on Sept 21, 2016 10:14:25 GMT -5
Fed nervousness. But this is the same daily pattern all week anyway.
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Post by huh on Sept 21, 2016 10:23:17 GMT -5
I've been expecting MSFT to squeeze its island top for a higher high to at least 59-60. But if it were to lose 57.20 before then, fugget about it
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Post by huh on Sept 21, 2016 10:31:57 GMT -5
Why does everyone expect a rate increase would be bearish? The Fed said the economy was strong enough to begin raising rates. Yet, nearly a year later, they haven't raised them again. To me, that's bearish. Did they change their minds about the economy?
Besides, a rate increase would be good for a tremendously underperforming sector of this bull market - banks.
[shrug] That's fundamentals though. I don't trade fundamentals.
But I doubt the Fed does anything today anyway. Didn't Yellen hint during this past summer that the next increase could come outside of an FOMC meeting?
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Post by huh on Sept 21, 2016 10:39:33 GMT -5
You know what would be hilarious? If they made today look like it was going to play out exactly like the last 2 days, then turn 'n burn it.
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Post by walnut on Sept 21, 2016 10:47:30 GMT -5
Why does everyone expect a rate increase would be bearish? The Fed said the economy was strong enough to begin raising rates. Yet, nearly a year later, they haven't raised them again. To me, that's bearish. Did they change their minds about the economy? Besides, a rate increase would be good for a tremendously underperforming sector of this bull market - banks. [shrug] That's fundamentals though. I don't trade fundamentals. But I doubt the Fed does anything today anyway. Didn't Yellen hint during this past summer that the next increase could come outside of an FOMC meeting? I don't think it would be bearish after a couple of hours. Some wild volatility, and then up. |
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Post by huh on Sept 21, 2016 10:53:42 GMT -5
I agree. As long as Naz futures hold above that shoulder test line, or even S&P above 2127.85, I don't see much to be concerned about. And VX_F has been the real tell. It lets us see through all the noise. And right now at least, it's not suggesting anything about markets down, not for more than a few minutes anyway
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Post by huh on Sept 21, 2016 10:56:44 GMT -5
Naz futures just tested its shoulder test line
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Post by huh on Sept 21, 2016 10:58:33 GMT -5
Nikkei futures backtesting yesterday's high now after breaking out overnight
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Post by huh on Sept 21, 2016 11:13:37 GMT -5
Naz futures just tested its shoulder test line Oops. AAPL failing support here, which likely won't bode well for Naz Futures holding that shoulder test line. OK, now I'm a little worried - at least for the next couple hours. |
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Post by huh on Sept 21, 2016 11:23:01 GMT -5
NQ_F did lose that shoulder test line, which means that H&S may confirm, but then squeeze (exactly like VX_F did with its H&S) and that could get S&P down to test that FIB support ~2127.85. I'd also expect AAPL down to 110.25-110.85.
This will all probably play out like I predicted last night, only half a day later than I expected (took long than expected, of course, and as always)
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Post by huh on Sept 21, 2016 12:07:31 GMT -5
And NQ_F back above the shoulder test line. Now I see why Oscar wisely stays neutral on Fed days. LOL
Shutting up now. I'm even annoying myself!
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Post by huh on Sept 21, 2016 12:16:23 GMT -5
OK, just one more thing. In memory of a former cat lover's online presence here  |
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Post by clinton on Sept 21, 2016 13:54:04 GMT -5
No trades
nothing looks cheap atm
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Post by jacksrbtr on Sept 21, 2016 15:54:47 GMT -5
No trades nothing looks cheap atm Oh yeah?!  |
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Post by huh on Sept 21, 2016 18:09:45 GMT -5
Oil could find some support here in the 43.20's as it's filling a downside gap at 43.22. Use FIB support ~43.15 as stop. Oil overshot the suggested stop by a few cents (I always have those too tight), but up a little over 4% since. 45.07 now the resistance, but if over that then 45.70 is the sell spot for this swing trade Oil hit 45.68 about an hour ago. If followed and didn't get stopped out by those few cents under support, I'd suggest selling 45.55-45.70 for 5.4%+ |
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Post by huh on Sept 21, 2016 18:19:21 GMT -5
Watch NVAX today..................that is one hell of a drop............ JMO and BOL............ Hard to imagine NVAX wouldn't bounce hard from ~1.16. That completes a H&S target and retests the lows from May '12  LOD in NVAX that day was 1.16. If bought only for a swing trade, look for at least 2.08-2.20 to sell, or any gap up higher than that |
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Post by huh on Sept 21, 2016 18:41:48 GMT -5
I don't see a bull flag. I see that since 06/27 there was a run up to a rounded/H&S top, and now a pennant forming below that pattern. Sounds ominous, but since at least Oct '14 indices have been rising on the squeezing of bearish topping patterns. (and I could make a very strong argument for that happening since well before then) Below is a look at that mentioned pennant in ES_F. Same set-up in DJI futures, but because of AAPL's recent run it's a completely different story in Naz futures.  The upside breakout of that pennant in ES_F could get it all the way to ~2196 (we've seen an ES_F bullish target for 2190's before, back in August, but it's sure taking it's time getting there - and all the other upside targets for individual names mentioned back then have been hit) |
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Post by huh on Sept 21, 2016 18:43:40 GMT -5
From now on I'm going to try to only make direction calls and targets. I only make a fool of myself when trying to say exactly how and when it'll get there. If I start doing otherwise, please somebody  me |
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Post by huh on Sept 21, 2016 18:44:04 GMT -5
I really screwed the pooch on the GORO/GDX call. Sorry.
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