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Post by walnut on Sept 20, 2016 13:48:08 GMT -5
I'm not a technical guy but isn't this somewhat of a bull flag on the ES?
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Post by huh on Sept 20, 2016 13:56:59 GMT -5
I'm not a technical guy but isn't this somewhat of a bull flag on the ES? Which time frame?
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Post by walnut on Sept 20, 2016 14:02:26 GMT -5
I think it is apparent on the daily
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Post by huh on Sept 20, 2016 14:10:09 GMT -5
I think it is apparent on the daily I don't see a bull flag. I see that since 06/27 there was a run up to a rounded/H&S top, and now a pennant forming below that pattern. Sounds ominous, but since at least Oct '14 indices have been rising on the squeezing of bearish topping patterns. (and I could make a very strong argument for that happening since well before then)
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Post by huh on Sept 20, 2016 14:28:25 GMT -5
It's actually pretty ironic. When I called for a bottom back in February, and said that S&P would go to a new ATH, it wasn't on a bullish pattern. It was on the expected squeeze of the larger H&S made in 2015 - this expected squeeze was the same exact set-up I talked about in that whole thread I did back in 2014 where I said the bull market would likely end with a squeeze like this.
And back in February, I had about 40 upside calls for individual names. ~90% of those individual bullish calls played out. The last three of them were GRUB, WATT and AAPL. AAPL was the final one to hit its upside target and did that in just the last few days.
Because of that, I wouldn't normally expect the S&P needs to see one more higher high. However, the VIX related charts are now showing downside. I do think that those will complete, and when they do, the indices will have peaked IMO. I doubt this bull market ends with this sideways crap we've seen these last two days. Instead, I think it'll end with a large, quick upswing to stop out nearly all bears and then reverse down very quickly.
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Post by huh on Sept 20, 2016 15:44:49 GMT -5
S&P closed right around 2139 on Friday, then gapped up yesterday and sold off right back down to Friday's close. And now today the market gapped up from around 2139. They wouldn't repeat the exact same set-up as yesterday, would they? Uhh, yep What a bunch of BS
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Post by walnut on Sept 20, 2016 15:47:22 GMT -5
patience haha
My mood has changed- I know there is some volatility ahead, but I think that we are headed into another giant decade long bull. It is still about information technology gains and jumps in worldwide productivity. And 0% interest rates.
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Post by huh on Sept 20, 2016 16:06:14 GMT -5
I think this is the important pattern bulls have to contend with now - a H&S in Naz futures. If this plays out like so many other H&S' have, then it could confirm below the neckline before coming back up into it, which would then create a squeeze. Something to watch for in overnight futures at least, or with tomorrow's open.
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Post by huh on Sept 20, 2016 16:08:09 GMT -5
Also, S&P final FIB support from those 2120 lows sits ~2127.85
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Post by huh on Sept 20, 2016 16:12:13 GMT -5
My guess is we could see a an overnight pullback under both the NDX_F neckline and S&P FIB support, then open higher than those lows.
If it happened that way, even if it was a gap down open, it would actually be bullish so long as those supports hold during normal hours. That would signal a key reversal is probably underway.
And if it doesn't happen that way, well, I wouldn't mind another gap up either - so long as that one doesn't sell off!
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Post by huh on Sept 20, 2016 16:18:10 GMT -5
Something interesting - VIX futures have a nearly identical H&S to that of the Naz futures shown above, only the VIX H&S started two days earlier. Try to figure that one out Sounds like an options sellers heaven
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Post by walnut on Sept 20, 2016 16:32:09 GMT -5
Yeah, in that premiums are quickly falling, yep
Survive the intermediate volatility, so that you can benefit from the coming big bull, that is the key.
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Post by huh on Sept 20, 2016 16:53:12 GMT -5
Oh, and VIX futures already confirmed its H&S, then gapped back above the neckline for the squeeze. So I expect VIX futures will go up for a headtest while Naz futures falls to confirm its H&S. Then it all reverses, VIX futures fall to complete the H&S, and Naz futures up for the head test.
The nice thing about that scenario would be that VIX futures would then create a double-top and continue down to recent lows (~12), which would allow Naz futures to continue up to recent highs, or higher, after its head test . And hopefully that H&S confirmation in Naz futures occurs after hours so that we see the rising (squeezing) side of it during normal hours.
That's my story and I'm sticking to it (until I change my mind)
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Post by jacksrbtr on Sept 20, 2016 17:35:09 GMT -5
Was anyone in TBRA? Only up 740% today Whaddaya expect when ya cross T-ball with BRAs?
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Post by jacksrbtr on Sept 20, 2016 17:37:00 GMT -5
Im thinking commods pop when fed doesnt raise rates Love you man!
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Post by jacksrbtr on Sept 20, 2016 17:40:15 GMT -5
I'm not a technical guy but isn't this somewhat of a bull flag on the ES? Does that mean you are a Fundamentalist?
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Post by walnut on Sept 20, 2016 18:14:45 GMT -5
I'm not a technical guy but isn't this somewhat of a bull flag on the ES? Does that mean you are a Fundamentalist? Yep, and I am accepting seed gifts.
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Post by jacksrbtr on Sept 21, 2016 5:41:12 GMT -5
Does that mean you are a Fundamentalist? Yep, and I am accepting seed gifts. Seed gifts?
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Post by huh on Sept 21, 2016 7:17:12 GMT -5
Send the evangelist/pastor money as a seed of faith and you'll reap the financial harvest when that seed grows. It must actually work cause it worked for these guys: www.etinside.com/?p=11679
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Post by jacksrbtr on Sept 21, 2016 11:23:50 GMT -5
Send the evangelist/pastor money as a seed of faith and you'll reap the financial harvest when that seed grows. It must actually work cause it worked for these guys: www.etinside.com/?p=11679Oy!
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