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Post by huh on Aug 4, 2016 7:14:48 GMT -5
10 things you need to know before the opening bell The Bank of England cut rates. In a unanimous vote, the central bank lowered its benchmark interest rate 25 basis points to a record-low 0.25% as it looks to stabilize the British economy following the Brexit vote. The bank also announced it would expand its quantitative-easing program by 60 billion pounds and purchase corporate bonds. BOE head Mark Carney's press conference will begin at 7:30 a.m. ET. The US is importing more oil than it's producing. A large OPEC supply has caused the US to import more oil than it has produced for the first time since January 2014. According to Vivek Dhar, a mining and energy commodities analyst at Commonwealth Bank, "the increase in US oil imports reflects OPEC's strategy to target market share instead of price." West Texas Intermediate crude oil is down 0.8% at $40.49. Brazil's impeachment committee votes. A Brazilian Senate committee will vote Thursday whether to recommend that President Dilma Rousseff be removed from office. According to AFP, the vote isn't binding and is expected to overwhelmingly favor Rousseff's ousting. Revenue from tech deals is at its highest level since the dot-com bubble. Tech mergers and acquisitions have brought in $1.9 billion this year, according to Dealogic. That's up 11.8% from the same period last year and trails only the same period in 2000 ($2.2 billion) for the highest total. There's one market where electronic trading doesn't work so well. Craig Donohue, the executive chairman at The Options Clearing Corporation who was previously the CEO of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, says electronic trading doesn't work as well for options. "I've been away from it for a few years, but at least during my time I think we certainly saw that electronic trading in our more complicated options markets were, I think, significantly more difficult to achieve than in the futures markets, where you just had fewer instruments, concentrated liquidity in," Donohue told Business Insider. Tesla missed on earnings. The electric-car maker lost an adjusted $1.06 a share on adjusted revenue of $1.56 billion. Tesla says it's on track for 50,000 deliveries in the second half of the year, which would put it at the low end of its 2016 guidance of 80,000 to 90,000 deliveries. Toyota slashed its forecast. The world's largest automaker says full-year operating profit will come in at 1.6 trillion yen ($15.76 billion), down from its previous forecast of 1.7 trillion yen. That would represent a 44% drop in profit, caused mostly by the strength of the Japanese yen. Stock markets around the world are up. Spain's IBEX (+1.3%) leads the gains in Europe after Japan's Nikkei (+1.1%) led the advance in Asia. S&P 500 futures are down 0.50 points at 2,156.50. Earnings reporting remains heavy. Chesapeake Energy, Fannie Mae, Kellogg, and MGM Resorts are among the names reporting ahead of the opening bell, while Kraft Heinz, LinkedIn, and Priceline highlight the names releasing their quarterly results after markets close. US economic data flows. Initial jobless claims will cross the wires at 8:30 a.m. ET, and factory orders are due out at 10 a.m. ET. Then, at 10:30 a.m. ET, natural-gas inventories will be released. The US 10-year yield is little changed at 1.54%. www.businessinsider.com/opening-bell-august-4-2016-2016-8 |
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Post by huh on Aug 4, 2016 7:15:25 GMT -5
10 things in tech you need to know today 1. Apple's App Store just had its best month ever. "Pokémon Go" is likely a big contributor to the success. 2. Walmart is in talks to buy Jet.com for as much as $3 billion (£2.3 billion). The American retailer might acquire the e-commerce site. 3. Tech dealmakers haven't earned this much money since the dot-com bust. Revenues for tech bankers from mergers and acquisitions have hit their highest point since the bubble popped in 2000. 4. Apple says it has solved the gender pay gap. The Cupertino company released its most recent diversity report on Wednesday. 5. Intel is recalling its fitness watches, saying they are a burn hazard. The company is offering a full refund for its Basis-brand smartwatches. 6. Mobile payments company Square reported a 41.5% jump in quarterly revenue. Its stock shot up by 14% in after-hours trading. 7. Uber completed 62 million trips in July, up 15% from the previous month. The ride-hailing company recently announced that it is selling off its Chinese unit. 8. A rumour that Steve Ballmer wants to buy Twitter drove the stock up 9%. However, analyst Robert Peck from SunTrust thinks such a deal would be highly unlikely. 9. We got a look inside Facebook's new mad science laboratory. Area 404 contains massive steel-cutting water jets that even Mark Zuckerberg can't use. 10. Airbnb plans to build community centres in small towns, The Verge reports. The rental startup has an experimental design group called Samara. www.businessinsider.com/10-things-in-tech-you-need-to-know-august-4-2016-8 |
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Post by huh on Aug 4, 2016 7:16:02 GMT -5
Frontrunning: August 4 Bank of England cuts rates for first time since 2009, restarts bond purchases (Reuters) Obama administration denies Iran cash payment was a ransom (Reuters) Mike Pence Endorses Paul Ryan After Donald Trump’s Refusal (WSJ) In slap at Trump, some wealthy Republicans campaign for Clinton (Reuters) Clinton leads Trump by 17 points in NH (The Hill) One More Reason for Investors to Worry About ‘Earnings Before Bad Stuff’ (WSJ) Two L.A. policemen who shot unarmed black man sue city for racial discrimination (Reuters) Musk Declares Tesla Free From Factory Hell With Targets Intact (BBG) Goldman Sachs says Brexit could adversely affect operations (Reuters) New Jersey Backs Away From Hedge Funds (WSJ) Goldman Employees to Pull $350 Million From Och-Ziff Fund (BBG) Berkshire Said to Draw Fed Scrutiny Over Wells Fargo Investment (BBG) Pentagon not to pay Pakistan $300 million in military reimbursements (Reuters) Steve Cohen’s New Firm Said to Meet With Investors Ahead of 2018 (BBG) Icahn to close Trump Taj Mahal casino in Atlantic City (Reuters) Chicago Seeks Tax Hike to Avert Insolvency for Pension Fund (BBG) Wal-Mart Said to Be in Talks to Acquire Amazon Rival Jet.com (BBG) U.S. states signed pact to keep Exxon climate probe confidential (Reuters) www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-08-04/frontrunning-august-4 |
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Post by huh on Aug 4, 2016 7:57:02 GMT -5
Watch for this potential Asc. Triangle/iH&S combo pattern to play out in ES. Upside target >2186 ( S&P ~2192 ). Support ~2153  |
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Post by novie08 on Aug 4, 2016 8:24:34 GMT -5
All the news above except some tech shows deflation...waiting for jobs report. How the heck can we have inflation with falling wages no matter how much they lower rates? Besides that, rates cannot go much lower.
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Post by huh on Aug 4, 2016 8:27:20 GMT -5
...Besides that, rates cannot go much lower. Never say never  |
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Post by huh on Aug 4, 2016 8:35:42 GMT -5
USD/JPY bear flag forming, downside target 99.20, confirms <100.95
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Post by clinton on Aug 4, 2016 10:03:46 GMT -5
FB finally
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Post by clinton on Aug 4, 2016 10:55:59 GMT -5
SOLD USO hit sell target +2%
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Post by dino on Aug 4, 2016 11:58:26 GMT -5
Back in same MSFT puts 1.78 Still holding the crAPPL Added MSFT puts 1.03 ish. Avg now 1.21. Yuk. Might have to consider rolling over to next week. |
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Post by dino on Aug 4, 2016 12:11:51 GMT -5
Oil looks poopy to me but it's about oversold on the daily. 2-3% gap down tomorrow "could" be bullish. Bought that dip this morning. This was an add to a previous purchase so my UWTI avg. is 18.80. Out 3/4 of position @ 19.02. Bigger position than planned & a horrible initial entry, so I took the small 1-2% gain on the big position and will buy back later if we continue up. |
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Post by huh on Aug 4, 2016 12:50:40 GMT -5
I don't know anything about options, but if it were me I'd try to get MSFT Oct 50 puts (currently trading .44) while selling upside same month OTM 60 calls (currently .88) - and all of this would ideally take place if/when VX_F is <12.50
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Post by novie08 on Aug 4, 2016 13:00:45 GMT -5
Sold WMB shares bought in June for +11.5% plus the 2.8% divi paid.
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Post by novie08 on Aug 4, 2016 13:06:50 GMT -5
Avg. 15 year mtg. now 2.7%!!! Wow, wow, wow...if younger, I would go into debt.
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Post by huh on Aug 4, 2016 13:15:20 GMT -5
I don't know anything about options, but if it were me I'd try to get MSFT Oct 50 puts (currently trading .44) while selling upside same month OTM 60 calls (currently .88) - and all of this would ideally take place if/when VX_F is <12.50 I changed some of the above to get with nearer puts. But like I said, I don't know anything about options - all that delta & stuff - posting this only so that I can come back and look at the disastrous results later. LOL (but, if I'm right about MSFT being lower in Oct, it's a free play as the premium from call sells would way more than offset the put purchases, right?) |
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Post by dino on Aug 4, 2016 13:25:59 GMT -5
I don't know anything about options, but if it were me I'd try to get MSFT Oct low-mid 40's puts, and ideally if/when VX_F is trading <12.50 (those puts are currently trading .07-.13) I don't normally play options anymore because I hate the time box. Your suggestion is a perfect example. One could buy those and get the direction right, but when October expiration rolls around, those puts would have to be In The Money for them to be worth anything. A $45 put for example, will expire worthless on expiration day if the strike price is $45 or higher. So with the stock price currently at ~$57, that would really suck to be right for a $13 (20+%) move in the right direction and not only have nothing to show for it but LOSE money! lol. That's why when I do play these things, I try to get a deep In The Money option with a Delta close to 1. Those options tend to move penny for penny with the stock price (or very close to it). There's very little if any decay in these options as well. But these are much more expensive and harder to get the further you go out in expiration. |
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Post by huh on Aug 4, 2016 13:27:41 GMT -5
I don't know anything about options, but if it were me I'd try to get MSFT Oct low-mid 40's puts, and ideally if/when VX_F is trading <12.50 (those puts are currently trading .07-.13) I don't normally play options anymore because I hate the time box. Your suggestion is a perfect example. One could buy those and get the direction right, but when October expiration rolls around, those puts would have to be In The Money for them to be worth anything. A $45 put for example, will expire worthless on expiration day if the strike price is $45 or higher. So with the stock price currently at ~$57, that would really suck to be right for a $13 (20+%) move in the right direction and not only have nothing to show for it but LOSE money! lol. That's why when I do play these things, I try to get a deep In The Money option with a Delta close to 1. Those options tend to move penny for penny with the stock price (or very close to it). There's very little if any decay in these options as well. But these are much more expensive and harder to get the further you go out in expiration. Yeah, I did end up thinking of that. So I changed it. Check it out when you get a chance. I brought the puts higher and then sell OTM calls against it. Or would that just make the trade riskier? (in the original idea, I would've planned on selling those puts when MSFT got down to ~49.50 expecting a decent amount of premium in them at the time - but that probably rarely works) |
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Post by dino on Aug 4, 2016 13:32:38 GMT -5
I don't know anything about options, but if it were me I'd try to get MSFT Oct 50 puts (currently trading .44) while selling upside same month OTM 60 calls (currently .88) - and all of this would ideally take place if/when VX_F is <12.50 I changed some of the above to get with nearer puts. But like I said, I don't know anything about options - all that delta & stuff - posting this only so that I can come back and look at the disastrous results later. LOL (but, if I'm right about MSFT being lower in Oct, it's a free play as the premium from call sells would way more than offset the put purchases, right?) Yes, selling calls would be better but that's an entire different animal. I've only done that a couple times and was way too scared so I never pursued that any further. It starts getting more complicated as well (at least for me). Walnut could probably better explain pros and cons to those. |
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Post by dino on Aug 4, 2016 13:36:28 GMT -5
I don't normally play options anymore because I hate the time box. Your suggestion is a perfect example. One could buy those and get the direction right, but when October expiration rolls around, those puts would have to be In The Money for them to be worth anything. A $45 put for example, will expire worthless on expiration day if the strike price is $45 or higher. So with the stock price currently at ~$57, that would really suck to be right for a $13 (20+%) move in the right direction and not only have nothing to show for it but LOSE money! lol. That's why when I do play these things, I try to get a deep In The Money option with a Delta close to 1. Those options tend to move penny for penny with the stock price (or very close to it). There's very little if any decay in these options as well. But these are much more expensive and harder to get the further you go out in expiration. Yeah, I did end up thinking of that. So I changed it. Check it out when you get a chance. I brought the puts higher and then sell OTM calls against it. Or would that just make the trade riskier? (in the original idea, I would've planned on selling those puts when MSFT got down to ~49.50 expecting a decent amount of premium in them at the time - but that probably rarely works) Yeah - the OTM puts would gain momentum along the way and "probably" increase in value at some point but the closer you get to expiration, the more the decay kicks in. So you'd have to pick a good time to get out if you thought they would not expire ITM. |
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Post by dino on Aug 4, 2016 14:17:54 GMT -5
Have you already shorted AAPL? Thx huh. I just did. Back in a weekly put (next Friday). Deep ITM - 115 for 11.50. Hard to get a Delta close to 1 on these. Also got 5 MSFT puts (next Friday). 58.50 for 1.88. Good Delta on these with a small spread and low cost for some reason. Added crAPPL 9.20. Another bad initial entry. Ugh. |
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