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Post by novie08 on Jul 28, 2016 21:54:59 GMT -5
JBLU sold I made .04 a share after 3 months weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee I haven't met a trader yet that has gone broke while consistently taking gains. Please remind me of this every single trading day!
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Post by clinton on Jul 28, 2016 22:22:38 GMT -5
... Here's another example - AAPL. I wrote years ago that AAPL was fundamentally peaking, and I went into a whole bunch of detail. They've peaked in US phone sales IMO, and they'll fall flat on their face in China (the Chinese generate huge cash by making the stuff for US companies, but they're not dumb enough to let their people give it all back to US companies in the form of gross profits. They'll keep that money in their country). And as Clinton pointed out, that was not a great quarter. And if you think an AAPL car may save them, well, you may be right, but not for a very, very long time. (and you're betting on the same sort of expectations that created the tech bubble) Yet I've been bullish on AAPL recently. Why? It's chart. But if/when AAPL tests ~116.30, then expect a drop to mid-60's Jul. 28 at 4:51 PM MktOutperform YoY Revenue Growth...
$FB:+59%
$AMZN: +31%
$NFLX: +28%
$GOOGL: +21%
$AAPL: -15% obvious to be buying FB on every dip
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Post by dino on Jul 29, 2016 8:59:02 GMT -5
Yeah but the gains that you do take need to be large enough to offset the losses that you are also gonna take. You have to be compensating yourself for the risk you are exposing yourself to. I agree with the overall point I think you're trying to make (total gains must be greater than total losses), but I cringe when I read/hear things like "gains that you do take need to be large enough...". I think a cardinal mistake traders make is waiting for that "big enough" gain to close the position and declare victory. From my experiences in playing a game that is dirty, manipulated, corrupt and rigged to give your kind a 95% chance to fail, ANY GAIN is a victory. Everything is virtual until you execute that closing order. If you're positive when you close the position, you won that battle - period. To me, that's step #1. Step #2, and to your point, you have to have more net victories than losses whether that's, for example, two big victories out of 10 with 8 small losses or 8 small victories with 2 small losses. When playing a game with a 95% failure rate, the longer you're IN the game the higher your odds of losing. So I choose the latter. Kind of like defeating your enemy via death by a thousand paper cuts as opposed to decapitation. Now, take all this with a grain of salt because I am definitely better at my entry points than my exit points so this strategy works for me. I also factor time into the equation (if I can get 3-4-5% in a matter of hours I most likely will close the position even if I think I can get more if I hold just because that's a lot in a short amount of time). All just my opinion as well...
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Post by walnut on Jul 29, 2016 10:11:36 GMT -5
The problem I have to watch out for is selling winners too quick, and holding losers too long. It is two sides of a bell curve on a timeline. It is easy to be further on the wrong side of the bell curve over time. Sunk cost syndrome causes people to ride losers down too far, and it is easy to sell winners too soon, and before you know it you are a chronic loser.
I know that there is no magic number on when to take profits, and you can't just "will" your stocks to go up to some predetermined number,
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Post by dino on Jul 29, 2016 10:45:07 GMT -5
The problem I have to watch out for is selling winners too quick, and holding losers too long. It is two sides of a bell curve on a timeline. It is easy to be further on the wrong side of the bell curve over time. Sunk cost syndrome causes people to ride losers down too far, and it is easy to sell winners too soon, and before you know it you are a chronic loser. I know that there is no magic number on when to take profits, and you can't just "will" your stocks to go up to some predetermined number, Yes, very hard to predict the future in this game. And I've tried to will my positions but that never seemed to work for me either, lol. I constantly sell winners too quick. But they are truly winners at that point, not "virtual" winners (which is basically my point). And I've watched positions run away from me right after I sold them. But for as many times I've watched them run away, I've watched them come right back as well and I gobble them right back up. :-) Bottom line, there's no perfect strategy for all this except for what you're comfortable with.
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Post by clinton on Jul 29, 2016 10:45:42 GMT -5
The problem I have to watch out for is selling winners too quick, and holding losers too long. It is two sides of a bell curve on a timeline. It is easy to be further on the wrong side of the bell curve over time. Sunk cost syndrome causes people to ride losers down too far, and it is easy to sell winners too soon, and before you know it you are a chronic loser. I know that there is no magic number on when to take profits, and you can't just "will" your stocks to go up to some predetermined number, sell a loser if the fundamentals arent there If they are then hold it till it works my best trade of the year was selling DB for a small loss
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