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Post by novie08 on Jun 29, 2016 11:17:49 GMT -5
I haven't seen one piece of fundamental news to have caused this rally. In fact, many in the media apparently calling this only a relief rally because they can't explain it. Now imagine what would happen if some good news were to come out, even if only a false rumor. Fundamentally, it's a pre-holiday week!
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Post by huh on Jun 29, 2016 11:24:36 GMT -5
I haven't seen one piece of fundamental news to have caused this rally. In fact, many in the media apparently calling this only a relief rally because they can't explain it. Now imagine what would happen if some good news were to come out, even if only a false rumor. Fundamentally, it's a pre-holiday week! Yep, and fundamentally MM's like Soros missed the Brexit short trade ... I love this part *Billionaire Soros Was ‘Long’ on Pound Before Vote on Brexit (BBG)* So, does that mean ?
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Post by walnut on Jun 29, 2016 13:07:31 GMT -5
Fairly normal and healthy looking VIX contango now.
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Post by huh on Jun 29, 2016 14:05:45 GMT -5
Oil down 2.25% to 46.57 but doesn't look like support yet until ~45.80's Use a stop now of 49.24 if long to lock in at least 7% gain (sorry, 49.85 was my target but I missed it and didn't realize it had hit already)
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Post by huh on Jun 29, 2016 14:10:55 GMT -5
VIX futures saying "What pullback?" ... And S&P already back within 3% of the all time high
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Post by dino on Jun 29, 2016 14:14:45 GMT -5
If only TheMist were here.... He could have called for his patented BB (rated PG for Novie). ;-) He's one I miss most...no one ever heard from him after he had back surgery, I'm thinking. I disappear sometimes. Don't you miss me?
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Post by huh on Jun 29, 2016 14:20:20 GMT -5
He's one I miss most...no one ever heard from him after he had back surgery, I'm thinking. I disappear sometimes. Don't you miss me? You don't actually disappear though, we just can't see you - you being a ninja and all.
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Post by dino on Jun 29, 2016 14:29:22 GMT -5
I disappear sometimes. Don't you miss me? You don't actually disappear though, we just can't see you - you being a ninja and all. LOLOLOL.... as bad as that ninja avatar of mine is, maybe it should disappear...
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Post by huh on Jun 29, 2016 15:18:46 GMT -5
Expecting one more bounce in IBB for a FIB retrace & gap fill to 273.XX Still think IBB will go higher, but don't like where it peaked today. Closing from 254.79 for +1/2% and counting it as luck that it wasn't a big loss. It's a long again when it proves itself >257.10 (& 257 would then become support)
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Post by huh on Jun 29, 2016 15:30:05 GMT -5
Of all the upside targets I've posted needed for a blow-off top, all but two have hit. ...of course is the S&P new high, and the other is AAPL ~116. So keep an eye on AAPL this next week. If it's going to hit that target, I think it'll have to at least begin the run for it this coming week... Small iH&S forming in AAPL, confirms >94.58, upside target ~97.50 (which would fill upside gap from 06/16)
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Post by huh on Jun 29, 2016 15:40:38 GMT -5
...There's 2 more FIB resistances (next one ~2066.85), but more importantly watching for VX_F down to ~15.25 ES testing that next FIB resistance, the 61.8 retracement of the entire Brexit down move, in AH's now. If unable to break it overnight and gap up tomorrow, then likely to get a decent retracement of this bounce before higher
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Post by huh on Jun 29, 2016 15:54:59 GMT -5
...There's 2 more FIB resistances (next one ~2066.85), but more importantly watching for VX_F down to ~15.25 ES testing that next FIB resistance, the 61.8 retracement of the entire Brexit down move, in AH's now. If unable to break it overnight and gap up tomorrow, then likely to get a decent retracement of this bounce before higher And ES broke that resistance w/ ease, again. ES 2088.50 resistance and VX_F 15-15.25 support now the #'s to beat. ES over that resistance and the Brexit pullback fully negated (and we'll finally be likely to see that new ATH for the blow-off)
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Post by huh on Jun 29, 2016 15:57:13 GMT -5
Big banks announcing big buybacks AH's - that's the "good news" that I believe can finally put in a top to this bull market. No way banks will be buying back at ATHs (just like the AAPL buybacks have been amazingly accurate precursors to it's pullbacks)
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Post by walnut on Jun 29, 2016 16:12:19 GMT -5
Did you say "blow off"?
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Post by walnut on Jun 29, 2016 16:39:41 GMT -5
I'm less convinced than I was. But I have been a bag holder before. You feel sure?
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Post by huh on Jun 29, 2016 16:42:35 GMT -5
I'm less convinced than I was. But I have been a bag holder before. You feel sure? So far at least C, BAC, JPM and MS have all announced major buybacks in AH's. All on the same night, after a big bounce in the market, following bad news that caused a big pullback that MM's like Soros missed out on. And the bullish reaction will occur on the last day of the first half of the year, a first half that saw a major run by the massively underperformring sectors of a long term bull market that has pushed the market to some of the highest valuations it's ever been. If this isn't all connected then I'm certifiably crazy. This is exactly the kind of gapping up, after bad news type of run I've been waiting for since late 2011 to signal a top. So rally on, market. Rally on. My target blow-off range hasn't changed - 2138.04-2169.03. Doubt we see that tomorrow though. MM's will likely be busy hanging their curtains.
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Post by huh on Jun 29, 2016 16:46:16 GMT -5
And I do believe the Fed will continue to raise rates periodically this year, even if we are in a bear market.
The only thing that gives me pause is I'd like to see AAPL test 116 before a top is in.
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Post by huh on Jun 29, 2016 16:51:02 GMT -5
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Post by huh on Jun 29, 2016 17:07:25 GMT -5
Maybe I am crazy, but that's another subject matter entirely. What's important is that all the fundamental stuff I mentioned above is only theories. Ignore them. What matters is that they're theories to support what I see in the charts; trying to explain it.
Earlier this year I called for IWM to run to ~118.50. The high of that run, and it's high of the year, was 118.64 made on 06/08 - the same day I posted that the bull run was now complete.
That's an amazing call, but it had nothing to do with fundamentals. It was purely technicals. Now IWM has probably seen it's high for the year. However, I think that the S&P is making a run on the exact same technical set-up.
Checkout IWM's chart and see if you can find what I saw in February's action. (BIG hint: FIB extensions are nearly always key when it comes to a final bull run/squeeze/dead cat bounce)
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Post by birthmark on Jun 29, 2016 18:10:16 GMT -5
Of all the upside targets I've posted needed for a blow-off top, all but two have hit. ...of course is the S&P new high, and the other is AAPL ~116. So keep an eye on AAPL this next week. If it's going to hit that target, I think it'll have to at least begin the run for it this coming week... Small iH&S forming in AAPL, confirms >94.58, upside target ~97.50 (which would fill upside gap from 06/16) APPL strangely quiet the last few days... Still hoping for that 116 GL
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