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Post by huh on Dec 9, 2015 17:29:38 GMT -5
You will let us know when to buy this correction right HUH? I'll post when I think this pullback is over. Hopefully I can call that as well as I did today. Wow. Too bad I don't day trade. Would've done really, really well. If the market does pullback lower here, it'll likely be quick. I originally thought that the bounce that follows would be quick as well - only enough to make a slightly higher high - but if this 2011 analog keeps up, maybe it'll really rocket. I'm thinking a lower low this month and market might rally until March or so next year. However, if it squeezes higher this month instead, I'm sticking with the slightly higher high call and top. After the action of the last 2 days, tomorrow should set-up for some pretty easy trades that may actually last more than a few hours - whether that move ends up being up or down.
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Post by huh on Dec 9, 2015 21:21:12 GMT -5
I was just going through charts of some random names. Not only are the down moves some of them have already seen completely nuts (relative to the indices), so are some of their long term downside targets:
LULU: already down ~45% over last couple years, but has a downside target ~18, or ~60% lower than here FSLR: already down ~20% over the last year, but has a downside target ~22, or ~63% lower than here MW: already down ~72% since July of this year, but will likely see under 2.00 before it's fall is complete, or ~89% lower from here HIMX: already down more than 50% from last years high, but looks like it'll see under 3.00, or ~68% lower than here TXMD: currently flat with last year's high and doing well for the year, but downside target is ~1.29, or ~86% lower than here (double-topping now)
And here's the thing - I simply jumped over to ST and chose the first five names currently trending. I don't even know what the names of the last two companies are. And this list doesn't include already decimated sectors such as industrials (CAT, X), miners (FCX) or oil related names (CHK, RIG) that we already know about. Pretty much any chart of any name I look at appears to have much lower downside targets. And that may make me sound like a permabear, but look at the charts. Look how many names are already at or below their 2009 crash lows. Those were supposed to be generational lows! But many names at or below those again already while the indices a few % off all time highs.
The indices seriously have no reason being as high as they currently are. This market is completely nuts - and robbing investors blind.
But don't short the indices because of these predictions, or even the sectors. Not yet anyway. Had you seen these moves beforehand and done that, you'd already be losing big money - even though you would have been right about the individual names.
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Post by novie08 on Dec 9, 2015 22:09:36 GMT -5
The indices seriously have no reason being as high as they currently are. This market is completely nuts - and robbing investors blind
So true. And no interest on cash. Guess who's CASHING IN? The system is so corrupt...it's gotten worse than ever. Cannot wait to see what they did with THE BIG SHORT in the movies. But even if everyone wakes up, what can be done?
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Post by huh on Dec 9, 2015 22:31:19 GMT -5
I don't know, maybe it's just me. I do seem to pretty much only see the bearish patterns. And over the last year most of the successful upside calls I've made were only the upside targets for squeezing of already formed bearish patterns (GOOG, SPX, IWM, XLF, etc.)
Even AAPL which I've been bullish on isn't due to a bullish pattern, but instead the squeezing of a bearish one.
And sorry about MAIN, novie. I saw that failure coming if it lost 30.90 today but forgot to post about it. Just seems lately that so many bullish patterns become bearish because they fail, yet the bearish ones turn bullish because they get squeezed.
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