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Post by huh on Nov 20, 2015 10:31:31 GMT -5
I was going through some of my recent market calls, both up and down, and realized I have more than 30 recent & still active calls here at this site. I'll likely be closing/ending all of the upside plays within the next 1-3 tradings days (maybe even this afternoon). I'll also be closing most of the downside calls. Most of these should be near completion anyway. Once the market top is in I'm clearing my watch lists and most of my charts. I'm not going to track individual names and instead pretty much only concentrate on commodities, SPX and volatility. I know most here don't short individual names anyway. In case I miss something that someone may be interested in or following, especially the upsides plays, me on it if I don't update it.
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Post by huh on Nov 20, 2015 10:37:09 GMT -5
I was posting on this over on ST and called to cover swing short at 4.98 for 8.8% - which happened to be the exact low a few minutes later. Waiting for the close to see if the longer term short confirms. <5.23 would be a short signal, but could bounce again from ~5.00 back to ~5.75. Now AVXL a decent short set-up if trades <6.20 Anyone play this short? Down ~11% since losing that support yesterday. Ultimate downside target for this play is ~1.50 (for ~76% short gain). I'll no longer be tracking this one unless someone played it short.
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Post by huh on Nov 20, 2015 10:43:33 GMT -5
Potential for double-bottom now in HOG (~46.50) if you're feeling brave. I definitely wouldn't play it long from here (still has that potential downside target ~35). 47.05 & 47.60 now the major resistances to beat. HOG up ~8% since this call. Set hard stop if <49.95 to lock in 7% gain. Still expecting upside target ~51.90 for a 12% gain if stop isn't hit.
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Post by novie08 on Nov 20, 2015 11:12:15 GMT -5
MAIN and V moving upward...could last through holiday rally, esp. V.
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Post by huh on Nov 20, 2015 11:14:49 GMT -5
MAIN and V moving upward...could last through holiday rally, esp. V. Holiday weeks are usually reversal weeks. And this week is an up week - the biggest up week of the year - and follows the 2nd worst down week of the year. IMHO, if MAIN gets anywhere near 36, take it (and in case it doesn't, worst case stop now should be ~30.50)
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Post by huh on Nov 20, 2015 12:28:25 GMT -5
USDJPY bull flag, upside target ~124.60, stop against 122.80 Not even halfway to the target yet Something not right with USDJPY. It's not rising as it should, even with the strength in dollar futures and the weakness in EURUSD. I still expect it should rise because dollar futures looks like it could go into blow-off top mode, but have to use a worst case stop now of 122.725 in case something funky is beginning in the normal currency pair relationships.
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Post by huh on Nov 20, 2015 14:07:37 GMT -5
Nat Gas looks to be an awesome short right here (futures @2.333) So far this one not moving as expected. Stop now if over HOD (>2.3759 in futures) Stops are fine as long as you time them right. Downside target ~2.145 Downside target hit for 8+% in Nat Gas (and still falling - at least use a trailing stop now if short)
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Post by huh on Nov 20, 2015 14:13:38 GMT -5
Another upside target I'm looking for is GE (General Electric) to ~33.55 - that would be a full FIB retracement from its 2007 high Use a stop now of 30.39 in GE - basically works out to be b/e stop. No tolerance for laggards here if they fail support on this market move up. Upside sell still if hits ~33.35 before then.
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Post by huh on Nov 20, 2015 14:47:04 GMT -5
CMG down 7% to 650's after earnings report. This one could drop all the way back to 470's/480's based on the current patterns. And yes, that is a H&S-RS-Squeeze-To-New-High pattern, which essentially creates a H&S (red lines) and double-top (white lines) CMG down quite a bit since. Still expecting more downside.
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Post by huh on Nov 23, 2015 8:53:41 GMT -5
Bearish pattern in oil, at least a small down move coming in very near term (should fill gap ~40.66) Oil fell more than 3% overnight and filled that gap (overshot a little down to 40.41) before rallying more than 5.7% off that bottom. Check out why it bounced so hard from that low (and why it peaked this morning where it did): This is why I was hesitant to call for holding a short position under 40.50. However, if it were to lose 40.99 now, then it would be a short down to the 34-36 range (with a bounce ~38 on the way down). But until that support is lost, it could put in a short term bottoming pattern.
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Post by huh on Nov 23, 2015 8:54:22 GMT -5
Everything going exactly as expected. Some advice: the down move in the indices is likely the fake out move. Dollar breaking out so short commodities here (except oil) and long AAPL, then enjoy the final wave to the top. It'll probably only last a few days. JMHO Taking longer than I thought, but so far so good. Since this call: Gold -8% Silver -12% Copper -15% Palladium -18% Platinum -15% Oil -10% Dollar's +3% AAPL's ~flat I was wrong about the "except oil" part - it fell along with the other commodities. I do believe that this trade is not yet done - EURUSD still more downside and dollar futures still more upside
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Post by huh on Nov 23, 2015 12:46:54 GMT -5
Upside calls still in play:
iH&S': AAPL, XLF SPX, DJI, NDX, Futures for all 3 indices, MAIN, Hang Seng, GM Bull Flags: ES, Dollar Futures, GM RS expected peak targets: GS (already hit), IWM, IYT H&S-RS-Squeezes: SPX, NDX, DJI, Futures for all 3 indices, SOXX, AAPL, XLF, IWM, MSFT, USDJPY Other: GE, HOG, MNKD, DDD
Downside calls still in play:
EYES, SUNE, VXX, TGT, QCOM, Gold, EURUSD, FCX, OMER, AVXL, NBG, GPRO, HCKT, CHK, NQ, X, INO, TWTR
I think that about covers the still active calls I've made that have yet to hit their targets. I'm not going to keep updating & tracking these so if anyone has any questions on any of them, just ask and I'll respond. Doesn't appear anyone's likely making use of them anyway, and I'm going to relax some this week. I'll update at least a couple of these when their targets hit - specifically VXX & SPX/ES.
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Post by huh on Nov 23, 2015 12:56:47 GMT -5
With the exception of a recommended stop on the DDD long getting hit, I do believe (without checking every one of them this morning) that all the calls are all batting 100%, both up and down.
But here's the thing - I'm not directly playing any of these calls. I've only been tracking these for the benefit of those here on the board and to keep a finger(s) on the overall market.
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Post by birthmark on Nov 23, 2015 12:59:37 GMT -5
Looks like your crystal ball is really polished these days Huh!! Nice work!!
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Post by huh on Nov 23, 2015 13:03:51 GMT -5
Looks like your crystal ball is really polished these days Huh!! Nice work!! I just can't wait for the top. Things get really ez then. I think we're really close.
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Post by huh on Nov 30, 2015 8:29:16 GMT -5
Seeing two upside targets for IWM ~120 (119.75 & 120.75). >116 confirms, support ~114... IWM finally getting above that 120 target in pre-market (completes multiple bullish patterns). Still expecting ~122.70 for the H&S RS peak (& possibly higher for a H&S-RS-Squeeze)
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Post by huh on Dec 2, 2015 10:14:46 GMT -5
I'm going to have to lower the Hang Seng target down to ~22659. Could get higher than that, but that area is heavy resistance now.
May have to lower some other targets as well. Many of these names I have upside calls in not moving as fast as the indices.
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Post by huh on Dec 3, 2015 13:21:53 GMT -5
Good time to update some of the downside calls I suppose: FCX downside target 4.50 against ~12.25 (currently @ 12.01) FCX new bearish pattern pointing to ~4.25 (probably bounce from here a little first though) ...If it gets there, then it sets-up as a short for a downside target ~4.00. It is possible that it gets as high as the final FIB ~9.15, so that would be the spot to add to a short position and/or the mental stop area. [chart] EYES down ~45% since hitting the short target. Still seeing downside target of ~4.00. I posted a chart of the GPRO Island H&S hereI'm so upset about this scam, and I don't even own it! LOL I'll shut up about it now. GPRO was trading ~78.00 when I posted this. Down ~73% since. It's nearing the lowest downside target which is ~14.50-15.00 (but still about another 30% from here) Seeing more bearish patterns for GPRO. Still expecting 14.50-15.00 HCKT still consolidating under the 19.50 resistance, and looks as if it is putting in a larger topping pattern Potential bear flag in CHK, downside target 3.60's (currently 7.28) CHK still in free fall - but need to push downside target up a little from 3.60's to 3.70's Ironically a few of the others are actually up today. Nothing significant in those or the other names though. Still on track for downside targets.
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