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Post by huh on Sept 2, 2015 9:02:34 GMT -5
BOL, but seriously, be careful with that one here. Big range in indices before confirmation of anything. ES highest resistance now is ~1937.75. Get above that and the market could squeeze big. Below 1907.40 AND EURUSD >1.1265 and you can sit on it for a bit. JMO Many thanks...I know. I can never remember, don't watch ES, is it 5 pts. above or below the s&p? Currently ES is about 2.5 pts lower, but that variance swings, especially overnight. Here's a link that let's you easily watch it in real time.
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Post by huh on Sept 2, 2015 9:16:25 GMT -5
Should it get there, ACI sets-up as a short again ~8.15. Otherwise under 6.25 w/a tight stop. (downside target is ~3.75)
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Post by huh on Sept 2, 2015 9:24:44 GMT -5
Lots of things hit major resistances with their highs today. Yesterday things held their major lows.
When I say there is a chance for a big squeeze here, I'm not saying that because the market is down so much. It's for two TA reasons - 1 is because of the significant FIB supports that have held since last Monday's lows, and, 2 because of the downsides I'm seeing for the major commodities. If they fall sharply, it could mean that the dollar is rising and the EURUSD has failed a large bullish pattern, for now at least. And although it doesn't make fundamental sense to me, the market's been rising with the dollar this year. Although that could always change I suppose.
Right now the market is at a major juncture and we likely won't have confirmation until later today or tomorrow as to which way. And probably not until a good portion of it has already happened, especially if the move is up. But this I do know, and we wouldn't have to wait long to see it. If ES falls <1907.40 today, the next downside target for it is ~1880.
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Post by huh on Sept 2, 2015 9:29:41 GMT -5
Why 1880? Remember this? Looks like might have to go and make those lower lows now (especially in the Chinese names). Potential downsides in ES are 1930's, 1880, 1810, then 1768- for the lower low (currently @1967.50) A down week this week would likely set the markets up for a nice holiday reversal rally next week (& perhaps a near record breaking rally)
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Post by novie08 on Sept 2, 2015 9:30:33 GMT -5
Market looks really weak unless it's a trick! Looks like it's being single-handedly held up by AAPL.
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Post by novie08 on Sept 2, 2015 9:37:33 GMT -5
Someone liked the PMs; then they took 'em down in another flash.
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Post by huh on Sept 2, 2015 9:48:05 GMT -5
Sure looking like ES wants under 1900 today
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Post by huh on Sept 2, 2015 9:50:48 GMT -5
That next lower FIB support for ES now sits ~1914.75. Worst case FIB sits ~1907.75
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Post by novie08 on Sept 2, 2015 9:52:00 GMT -5
So now the question is whether to sell or hang onto uvxy...Armstrong's assays calling for less volatility next week.
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Post by huh on Sept 2, 2015 9:52:34 GMT -5
BOL, but seriously, be careful with that one here. Big range in indices before confirmation of anything. ES highest resistance now is ~1937.75. Get above that and the market could squeeze big. Below 1907.40 AND EURUSD >1.1265 and you can sit on it for a bit. JMO Many thanks...I know. Might have to hold it for a month like last time. I can never remember, don't watch ES, is it 5 pts. above or below the s&p? Your worst case stop for ES is now if >1935.50. If it drops to 1900, the stop moves down to 1932 BOL
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Post by huh on Sept 2, 2015 9:57:06 GMT -5
There's the short set-up for oil, ~46.30 (downside target in the 38's) HOD was 46.31 - & I saw that for the high last night - but I'm getting better at remembering to account for that penny!
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Post by huh on Sept 2, 2015 9:59:25 GMT -5
Likely to see whipsaw until after lunch now. I've gotta run. Helping someone paint their kitchen ("helping" being a very loose term here, more like doing it for them while they watch) BBL & BOL all - and remember, Seems many have already forgotten about it
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Post by walnut on Sept 2, 2015 10:02:45 GMT -5
When VIX comes down, it generally comes down hard and with a finality that will seem obvious - only after the fact. Be careful with that UVXY
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Post by walnut on Sept 2, 2015 10:11:26 GMT -5
I have some short VXX and options spreads that are overall delta -.105 right now and should go more delta negative as VXX drops, go delta neutral as VXX rises. Now if VXX would just drop.. it could go either way today couldn't it.
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Post by Herceg on Sept 2, 2015 10:18:41 GMT -5
I've been busy most of the morning shorting in and out of HRB.............Scottrade did not have any AMBA shares to short as I was told it was too expensive for them to borrow...............pricks............tried shorting PM at 83.50..............grant it touched 85+ but I knew it would tumble back down.........would have been nice if only for 150 shares.......................
FWIW low 1800's still on the clock for me..............if not lower
JMO and BOL
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Post by huh on Sept 2, 2015 10:22:36 GMT -5
Should it get there, ACI sets-up as a short again ~8.15. Otherwise under 6.25 w/a tight stop. (downside target is ~3.75) Pattern changed in ACI, forming a perfect H&S now (too perfect?). Highest resistance now ~7.24, downside target 3.20's
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Post by huh on Sept 2, 2015 10:49:07 GMT -5
Waiting for the person who's kitchen I'll be painting to get home:
Only if you're still long it today
Way to keep hope alive, but no
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Post by jacksrbtr on Sept 2, 2015 12:37:13 GMT -5
In the futures and present day Market what did one volatility atom (let's just say the second differential on the VIX) say to the other? "I go from gas to liquid to solid and back again sometimes even missing phases I don't know WHAT to call it going to the bathroom!"
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Post by jacksrbtr on Sept 2, 2015 12:48:30 GMT -5
Waiting for the person who's kitchen I'll be painting to get home: Only if you're still long it today Way to keep hope alive, but no "It is indeed a "crude market"...but it's the only one we got." (The above attributed to Soupy Sales while making fart sounds using his armpits and cupped hands)
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Post by jacksrbtr on Sept 2, 2015 13:45:22 GMT -5
In the futures and present day Market what did one volatility atom (let's just say the second differential on the VIX) say to the other? "I go from gas to liquid to solid and back again sometimes even missing phases I don't know WHAT to call it going to the bathroom!" It was also heard saying: "I don't know if I'm coming or going!"
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