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Post by jacksrbtr on Aug 28, 2015 13:22:31 GMT -5
Is NFLX signaling a lasting reversal? Has had 3 + days, could confirm today. Just thinking/talking to myself here. See? That's the difference between men and women. When women are thinkin out loud it's about financial security; when men think out loud it's usually because some drop dead gorgeous bodacious woman just passed him on the street, gym, wherever. ...and usually what I'm saying to myself in those circs is either: - "OMG!" and/or - "God bless America"  |
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Post by dino on Aug 28, 2015 14:19:27 GMT -5
Continental has broken above and successfully back tested the 200 day sma 2 times now since May this year. Bullish. :-)
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Post by birthmark on Aug 28, 2015 15:54:34 GMT -5
Strong close.
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Post by huh on Aug 28, 2015 15:59:53 GMT -5
S hit that 5.25 upside target for ~30% gain from 4.04. (will post link to the call later) I believe that's the last long call I currently have open The original call for a swing long in S: (now complete) The lowest FIB for this breakout in S is 4.03-4.05. Coincidentally, that's also the backtest of an iH&S now. If it gets that low, that would be an awesome risk/reward buy for a swing long. Anyone catch that $4 print in S this morning? That does complete any & all active long calls I had open |
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Post by huh on Aug 28, 2015 16:03:39 GMT -5
What happened to that big sell-off some trader here was calling for today?  Looking at VIX scams & VIX futures, you'd think the market had sold off hard. Perhaps they're just working their way back to contango...? |
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Post by jacksrbtr on Aug 28, 2015 16:07:19 GMT -5
Y'all have a great and safe weekend. ...and if you drink too much - drink responsibly. Drink enough so that you'll puke your guts out so maybe you'll think twice about doing that again anytime soon. That's what you'd call a "learning experience. |
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Post by jacksrbtr on Aug 28, 2015 16:09:01 GMT -5
S hit that 5.25 upside target for ~30% gain from 4.04. (will post link to the call later) I believe that's the last long call I currently have open The original call for a swing long in S: (now complete) Anyone catch that $4 print in S this morning? That does complete any & all active long calls I had open "Most Excellent!" Huh!!! Congratz! |
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Post by novie08 on Aug 28, 2015 16:54:19 GMT -5
Congrats Huh! Everyone have a great week-end!
And don't forget if the holiday rule holds, we should have another UP week!
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Post by walnut on Aug 28, 2015 17:34:28 GMT -5
Isn't it weird, the higher ES goes the higher VXX goes. VIX and VXX have almost decoupled. This i rate thing has put much uncertainty in the market, even as it is climbing higher for now and all seems ok again.
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Post by huh on Aug 28, 2015 19:28:27 GMT -5
Isn't it weird, the higher ES goes the higher VXX goes. VIX and VXX have almost decoupled. This i rate thing has put much uncertainty in the market, even as it is climbing higher for now and all seems ok again. Scary situation. I've never seen VIX scams climb with a rising market and the market not fall hard soon after. |
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Post by huh on Aug 29, 2015 13:49:37 GMT -5
The action in the middle of this past week had me waffling like a newbie (or like the 'pros' I've been making fun of). I figured looking at the charts of Friday's close over this weekend would change that. Not so much, not yet.
All year long I've thought we'd see a quick October-like dive, and then go back up to the highs to form a H&S-RS-Squeeze-To-New-High. The question is was this dive deep enough?
I see evidence to support a continued squeeze from here:
-Relative strength in IWM and NAZ (the leaders),
-The patterns formed late day Friday in both the indices and many individual names,
-EUR/USD lost support, etc.
However I also see evidence to suggest down again first:
-Many things Friday peaked right at major resistances (ie. S&P closed right at where the market started to break down a week ago Friday, FCX right at its final FIB res., etc. - MM-Mulligan?),
-The strength in VIX futures & scams,
-Most Chinese names actually topped on Thursday,
-UUP hit major resistance & gap fill, etc.
And then to make things even more confusing, there's the break in correlation with the dollar & commods. The dollar was up this week yet oil was also up ~13%.
All in all, I feel that the S&P will get back to the highs. I'm confident about that. We saw targets for 2120's that haven't been completed yet, and there was even possible targets for ~2135-2145.
The only question for me now is will the indices go back down first.
IWM, DJI & NDX say higher - each already show the signs of the H&S-RS-Squeeze as they are already back above the shoulder test lines after forming a neckline. However, China isn't, and SPX would have a ways to go yet before confirming higher. But if Monday is another up day, then we'll probably see the highs again on this squeeze. If Monday is down, we'll probably see a dive to form a more horizontal neckline first, and then start the squeeze all over again.
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Post by huh on Aug 29, 2015 14:46:37 GMT -5
Many of the Chinese names have not hit their downside targets yet:
BABA's target is 53-56, it's low this week was 58
BIDU did hit it's downside target, but left a gap below ~143.33 & hit it's final FIB retrace Thursday & Friday
DANG's downside target is ~4.75, it's low this week was 5.56
CHU left a downside gap @ 13.24 & also peaked on Thursday at a FIB retracement, and it runs the risk of losing recent support ~12.90's
SINA peaked this week at what could be the completion of a RS of a H&S, target ~17.50 (~55% down from here)
So I'm expecting Monday to be VERY weak for China.
But in the event that it isn't, then it's doing a final power squeeze before an even bigger down move. And if that happens, then we could also expect the same for our market.
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Post by walnut on Aug 29, 2015 21:37:22 GMT -5
Well, I have been thinking about the rate increase, and now I am beginning to wonder: will it be "buy the news"? The anticipation is already built in, a small rate increase at this point could well turn into a bullish event? There is still all that cheap money in the market.
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