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Post by clinton on Oct 22, 2013 6:16:50 GMT -5
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Post by clinton on Oct 22, 2013 21:26:22 GMT -5
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Post by clinton on Oct 23, 2013 6:18:44 GMT -5
Asia Slides As China Overnight Repo Soars On Fears Of Another Domestic "Tapering" Episode, Preparations For Bank Loan Defaults Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/23/2013 - 05:48 Following the past two days of reports in which we noted that both the broader Chinese housing market was overheating and reflating at an unprecedented pace as 69 of 70 cities posted Y/Y home price gains, while a separate report showed a blistering 12% price increase in Shanghai new homes in one week, it was only a matter of time before the PBOC resumed its tighter policy posturing, which infamously sent short-term repo rates to 25% briefly in June and nearly led to a collapse of the already fragile local banking system, in an attempt to pretend it is still in control of what is now the world's fastest growing credit bubble and of course, Chinese inflation which is now impacted not only by record domestic credit production but by hot money flows from both the Fed and the BOJ. Predictably enough, as reported overnight by the Global Times, the PBOC suspended its open market operations Tuesday without injecting money as usual, a move that analysts said was in response to a surge in foreign capital inflows in September. And just like the last time the PBOC proceeded to "surprise" the market with its own tapering intentions, overnight funding rates soared, with the one-day repo rate surged 67 bps, most since June 20, to 3.7561%; while the seven-day repo rate rose 42 bps, most since July 29, to 4.0000%. This, however, brings us to the far more important story, one reported by Bloomberg overnight, and one which we predicted is inevitable over a year ago: namely that the Chinese banks, filled tothe gills with bad and non-performing debt, are finally preparing for the inevitable default onslaught and as a result have suddenly tripled their debt write offs in what can be best described as preparing for an avalanche of defaults.
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Post by huh on Oct 23, 2013 7:14:56 GMT -5
I agree...and not only China banks. I still contend that the entire QE was a pre-bailout for banks for the next or continued financial crisis and didn't have anything to do with fixing the economy. Would also explain why corps have been hoarding cash. Never thought it would last even five years though!
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Post by clinton on Oct 24, 2013 6:30:41 GMT -5
I agree...and not only China banks. I still contend that the entire QE was a pre-bailout for banks for the next or continued financial crisis and didn't have anything to do with fixing the economy. Would also explain why corps have been hoarding cash. Never thought it would last even five years though! Bloom was saying add India's banks too
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Post by clinton on Oct 24, 2013 6:31:01 GMT -5
China Repo Rate Surge Continues As PBOC Refrains From Liquiidty Injection For Third Auction Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/24/2013 - 04:09
The reason why the Chinese Shanghai Composite again can't catch a bid (and why the Baltic Dry is sliding and will continue sliding from recent highs) is the same as the main event yesterday: the concerns that while the Fed punchbowl is and will continue to be filled beyond the point of overflowing, China - where inflation has once again taken a turn for the worse as it did this summer when after much repo pain the PBOC killed it early on in order to not repeat the scary episode of 2011 - may be actively engaging in monetary tightening. And like yesterday, when the PBOC refrained from adding liquidity via reverse repos, so today for a third straight auction the Chinese Central Bank refused to inject short-term funding into the system. The immediate result: China’s one-month Shibor rose 59 bps, most since June 25, to 5.4000%; three-month Shibor rose to 4.6876% from 4.6843% yesterday, while the key 7-Day Repo Rises 63 Bps to 4.68% hitting 5% prior, which was the biggest jump since July.
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Post by clinton on Oct 27, 2013 22:24:43 GMT -5
30 day low on china Attachments:
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Post by clinton on Nov 3, 2013 21:52:04 GMT -5
Hong Kong Stocks Rise After China Non-Manufacturing Data By Kana Nishizawa - Nov 3, 2013 9:28 PM ET
Hong Kong stocks advanced, with the benchmark index extending last week’s gains, after a gauge of China’s non-manufacturing industries rose to the highest level this year. Agricultural Bank of China Ltd., the nation’s No. 3 lender, increased 1.1 percent. Shunfeng Photovoltaic International Ltd. (1165), a maker of solar cells, surged 25 percent after announcing an acquisition plan. Guangzhou R&F Properties Co., a builder in the southern Chinese city, slipped 1.1 percent amid concern China will introduce more measures to curb house prices. The Hang Seng Index added 0.2 percent to 23,304.59 as of 10:24 a.m. in Hong Kong, with about three times as many shares gaining as declining. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index of mainland shares listed in the city climbed 0.5 percent to 10,733.38, heading for its highest close in more than six weeks. “China’s data is having positive impact on the market, reconfirming the economy is regaining power,” said Linus Yip, a strategist at First Shanghai Securities in Hong Kong. “The market is firm.” The Hang Seng Index (HSI) jumped 17 percent from this year’s low on June 24 through last week as data from China signaled the world’s second-largest economy is stabilizing. The nation’s non-manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index climbed to 56.3 in October from 55.4 in September, a government report showed yesterday. The increase follows better-than-estimated readings for two manufacturing indexes last week. Index Multiples The Hang Seng Index, on which gains this year have been led by gaming shares and China’s biggest Internet company, traded at 11.1 times estimated earnings on Nov. 1, compared with 15.9 for the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index. The S&P 500 rose 0.1 percent last week as positive corporate results overshadowed concern that improving economic data may prompt the Federal Reserve to trim stimulus as soon as next month. Of the index members that have reported quarterly earnings this season, 75 percent have posted higher profit than analysts estimated, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Futures on the gauge added 0.3 percent today. China’s top party officials will meet in Beijing from Nov. 9-12 to map out a blueprint for reform as the country heads for its slowest growth in more than two decades. The nation’s real-estate bubble poses a “danger” to the economy and the government should combine property controls with economic reform of land and tax policies, according to a front-page editorial published today by the China Securities Journal. Property Bubble Property buyers in the southern Chinese city of Shenzhen are required to have at least a 70 percent down-payment for their second homes, according to a statement posted on the website of the central bank’s Shenzhen office last week. New home prices in September rose 20 percent in Shenzhen and Guangzhou, data showed last month. China may remove a freeze on new listings on its domestic stock market after the leadership meeting later this week, Boming Cheng, president of Citic Securities Co., said in an interview. The nation suspended IPOs in October 2012 due to volatility in the stock market and investor concern about the financial reporting of newly-listed companies. Futures on the Hang Seng Index rose 0.4 percent to 23,338. The Hang Seng Volatility Index climbed 0.2 percent to 14.34, indicating traders expect the benchmark equity index to swing 4.1 percent in the next 30 days.
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Post by clinton on Nov 10, 2013 10:01:36 GMT -5
BEIJING Sat Nov 9, 2013 2:49am EST China inflation hits eight-month high amid tightening fear (Reuters) - China's annual inflation climbed to an eight-month high of 3.2 percent in October as food costs soared, fanning market worries about policy tightening as factory output and investment data pointed to signs of stabilization in the economy.
Inflation, which quickened slightly from 3.1 percent in September, was still lower than a median forecast of 3.3 percent in a Reuters poll and was below the official target of 3.5 percent for 2013.
"Although the CPI inflation was mainly pushed up by seasonal food demand, it may fuel market concerns that the central bank may tighten monetary conditions," said Li Huiyong, an economist at Shenyin & Wanguo Securities in Shanghai.
The People's Bank of China refused to inject liquidity into the money markets during regular open market operations on Thursday, triggering worries it would start a new round of tightening in the next few months, traders said.
Data on Friday showed exports rebounded by more than expected in October, adding to signs the economy has found its footing as Beijing prepares its reform agenda for the next decade.
But few analysts believe the central bank will rush to tighten policy amid the lingering global uncertainties.
The PBOC has said it will maintain its prudent policy-setting with timely fine-tuning to keep the economy on an even keel while warding off inflationary risks.
The National Bureau of Statistics said food prices rose 6.5 percent in October from a year earlier, quickening from 6.1 percent in September.
China's producer prices fell 1.5 percent last month from a year earlier - the 20th consecutive month of decline - versus a fall of 1.3 percent the previous month, the bureau said.
Economists polled by Reuters had expected consumer inflation of 3.3 percent and factory-gate prices to decline 1.4 percent.
Month-on-month, consumer prices were up 0.1 percent versus a rise of 0.2 percent expected by economists. Producer prices in October were unchanged from the previous month.
NO TIGHTENING SEEN
Data from the National Bureau of Statistics also showed China's factory output rose 10.3 percent in October from a year earlier, beating market expectations of 10 percent.
Fixed-asset investment, a key driver of economic growth, climbed 20.1 percent in the first 10 months from a year earlier - in line with forecasts. Real estate investment growth rose 19.2 percent, while revenue from property sales rose 32.3 percent.
Retail sales, a key gauge of consumption, were up 13.3 percent in October from a year earlier, versus 13.4 percent expected by the market.
"Overall, the data showed that economy is stabilizing but there are still many external uncertainties," said Chen Letian, an economist at Rising Securities in Beijing.
"We don't expect the central bank to tighten policy sharply, although it may fine-tune policy by targeting market liquidity."
A Reuters poll showed annual growth could slow to 7.5 percent in the fourth-quarter of 2013 from 7.8 percent in the previous three months. The full-year growth could be 7.6 percent - the weakest in 14 years - but ahead of the government's target of 7.5 percent.
Chinese leaders began a four-day secret meeting on Saturday to set a reform agenda for the next decade as they try to push more sustainable growth after three decades of breakneck expansion.
They have pledged to steer the economy away from its dependence on investment and exports to one driven more by consumption, services and innovation, which they consider more sustainable.
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Post by clinton on Nov 12, 2013 8:08:53 GMT -5
3rd plenum headlines sure seem to suggest china is gearing up to be reserve currency
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Post by clinton on Nov 12, 2013 8:13:16 GMT -5
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Post by clinton on Nov 13, 2013 9:19:21 GMT -5
hang seng futures are -1.93% ouch 3rd plenum that!
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Post by clinton on Nov 14, 2013 23:31:48 GMT -5
Rebar Rises in Shanghai to Trim Weekly Loss as Iron Ore Rallies By Bloomberg News - Nov 14, 2013 9:50 PM ET Facebook Share Tweet LinkedIn Google +1 0 COMMENTS Print QUEUE Q Steel reinforcement-bar futures in Shanghai advanced, narrowing a weekly loss, as higher iron ore prices helped offset a weaker demand outlook in winter. Rebar for May delivery, the most-active contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, gained as much as 0.4 percent to 3,636 yuan ($597) a metric ton, before trading at 3,632 yuan at 10:28 a.m. local time. The contract lost 0.8 percent this week. Iron ore for immediate delivery at Tianjin port tracked by The Steel Index gained 0.4 percent yesterday to $136.60 a dry ton, bringing this week’s gain to 0.5 percent. Demand for rebar usually wanes in winter as construction slows during the colder months, according to Jiang Yuying, an analyst at Chengdu Brilliant Futures Co. in Shanghai. “There are some bargain-hunting buying in rebar as higher production costs are supporting prices,” said Jiang. “The upside might be limited due to the lack of positive news from policy makers and weak seasonality.” The Communist Party’s senior leaders concluded a policy meeting this week with a communique stating that markets will become “decisive” in allocating resources while the state remains “dominant” in the economy, without providing specifics. Iron ore for May delivery on the Dalian Commodity Exchange, rose 0.2 percent to 939 yuan. Rebar for immediate delivery tracked by Beijing Antaike Information Development Co. was little changed yesterday at 3,548 yuan a ton.
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Post by jacksrbtr on Nov 15, 2013 7:50:08 GMT -5
Can you imagine the quality of the rebar they'll produce under these circs? Rebar is buried in concrete the only way their comrades will know it was crap will be when it fails n years from now. If they are using the junk metal we are returning to them in those containers walnut was talking about I guess there's some poetic justice in all this...unless they use the crap in one of the 20-something nuclear plants they are building.
Muahahahahaaaa!
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Post by clinton on Nov 15, 2013 8:01:47 GMT -5
Can you imagine the quality of the rebar they'll produce under these circs? Rebar is buried in concrete the only way their comrades will know it was crap will be when it fails n years from now. If they are using the junk metal we are returning to them in those containers walnut was talking about I guess there's some poetic justice in all this...unless they use the crap in one of the 20-something nuclear plants they are building. Muahahahahaaaa! funny you mention that www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/9387933/Chinese-steels-quality-in-doubtlooks like new zealand trying to ban their steel
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Post by jacksrbtr on Nov 15, 2013 11:17:35 GMT -5
Can you imagine the quality of the rebar they'll produce under these circs? Rebar is buried in concrete the only way their comrades will know it was crap will be when it fails n years from now. If they are using the junk metal we are returning to them in those containers walnut was talking about I guess there's some poetic justice in all this...unless they use the crap in one of the 20-something nuclear plants they are building. Muahahahahaaaa! funny you mention that www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/9387933/Chinese-steels-quality-in-doubtlooks like new zealand trying to ban their steel Yah it's a real problem, but apparently their prophylactic rubber makers have made good quality rubbers all these years to keep the population limited to just one child....or if not hate to think what they've been doing to newborns who were NOT state sanctioned....
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Post by clinton on Nov 17, 2013 11:11:14 GMT -5
Chinese economic reforms will have flow-on effects in Australia Read more: www.smh.com.au/business/chinese-economic-reforms-will-have-flowon-effects-in-australia-20131117-2xp2r.html#ixzz2kv5twlduChina has unveiled a comprehensive reform package to revitalise the world's second-largest economy after releasing an underwhelming communique early last week, heralding a fundamental shift in economic policy for Australia's most important economic partner. Beijing's broad reform policy initiative, ranging from a taxation system overhaul to land reform, will have a direct consequence on Australian industrial sectors such as resources, tourism and real estate. The Chinese government's decision to crack down on industrial overcapacity, especially in the steel sector, is most likely to have an impact on Australia's iron ore industry, which exported $39 billion worth of ores to China last year. ''As China's economy slowed, extra capacity became a major issue, one that the central government is now resolved to tackle,'' the official Xinhua News Agency reported. Advertisement China's steel industry, which collectively earned only 2.27 billion yuan or $397 million, for the first six months of the year is one of the worst-performing industries with a collective profit margin of 0.13 per cent. Under China's new economic policy, Beijing will not prop up the inefficient steel sector with favourable policies such as subsidised electricity, water or land prices, and will demand consolidation in the sector.The State Council, China's cabinet, issued orders to ban new projects, reappraise projects under construction and close down unauthorised or polluting production facilities. Chinese local governments, whose support has been crucial to the steel industry's survival, are likely to be challenged under the new market-centred economic policy. Zhao Zhenhua, an economist from the Central Party School, an influential think tank, said the excess industrial capacity was due to local interference. ''What appears to be overcapacity is in fact a revelation of blind competition among local governments,'' Xinhua reported Mr Zhao as saying. Beijing's wide-ranging policy reform package has impressed many commentators and economists. Mark Williams, the chief Asia economist of Capital Economics, said the reform package exceeded expectations. ''This is the most impressive statement of reform intentions that we have seen this century,'' he said. The news of China's bold economic reform came as the ANZ received the green light from the Chinese regulator to open up a sub-branch in the Shanghai free trade zone, which is expected to play an important role in the country's further liberalisation effort. ''The Shanghai free trade zone initiative is an important initiative as part of China's reform agenda and is expected to further open up the financial services industry to private and foreign capital,'' Charles Li, ANZ's chief executive for China, said. ''It will also help to bolster RMB convertibility, support a path to interest rate liberalisation and increase the volume of cross-border transactions given companies located in the zone will be able to take advantage of both onshore and offshore markets.''
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Post by walnut on Nov 17, 2013 11:20:13 GMT -5
Betting against China is fun. Those people got no scruples, and that will eventually do them in. Nothing ever done for the common good, or for the other guy. They will eat all their green grass and then they will die off.
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Post by clinton on Nov 17, 2013 11:44:46 GMT -5
I am by no means betting against China.(noted that no one said I was) They will probably take over everything in 20 yrs if not sooner
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Post by clinton on Nov 17, 2013 11:48:53 GMT -5
I find their stocks super dangerous to trade. record profits for steel makers last month. if they take away free electric expect profits to vaporize over night and stocks to drop like a rock
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