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Post by novie08 on Feb 9, 2015 17:32:35 GMT -5
Really impressive move in oil. Didn't expect that today. Critical support's now 52.85. Interesting to see it move counter to the markets. Although the bounce could go on longer than expected, still see ultimate $35 unless something very big comes along. Of course $35 will be very big indeed!
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Post by novie08 on Feb 9, 2015 22:23:41 GMT -5
The MSM totally disagrees and tonight were preparing the peeps for higher prices, probably $2.60 or $2.65/gal. soon. Not sure what that translates into per barrel...maybe around $65/bbl. Thinking I read that is what is will take to have producers make a profit. Hmmm.
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Post by novie08 on Feb 10, 2015 11:05:44 GMT -5
Down big today. More hmmm.
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Post by huh on Feb 10, 2015 11:17:15 GMT -5
The MSM totally disagrees and tonight were preparing the peeps for higher prices, probably $2.60 or $2.65/gal. soon. Not sure what that translates into per barrel...maybe around $65/bbl. Thinking I read that is what is will take to have producers make a profit. Hmmm. Saw a report earlier where a Saudi Arabian top economist advisor reiterated that they can produce oil for a cost to them in the single digits (dollars). I don't think they're too concerned with low oil prices yet and he didn't even seem phased when presented with the possibility of oil as low as ~$20/barrel.
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Post by novie08 on Feb 10, 2015 15:17:39 GMT -5
Yes, the report I was referencing meant the shale oil and U.S./Canadian oil. It's hard for me to believe they can make a profit on $20/bbl. but I know nothing about oil production. Maybe walnut/sense could shed some light on this. Now futures -2.75!
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Post by huh on Feb 12, 2015 11:55:41 GMT -5
51.00 & 51.50 now major resistances for oil. Get over those and might actually get a short term bottom. But fail either one and lower lows coming.
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Post by Herceg on Feb 12, 2015 12:14:25 GMT -5
51.00 & 51.50 now major resistances for oil. Get over those and might actually get a short term bottom. But fail either one and lower lows coming. I heard analyst a few days back say oil could go to the $20's............... JMO and BOL..........
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Post by huh on Feb 12, 2015 14:41:42 GMT -5
51.00 & 51.50 now major resistances for oil. Get over those and might actually get a short term bottom. But fail either one and lower lows coming. I'm sure it's obvious, but ~50 is now critical support (49.80-50.20).
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Post by huh on Feb 13, 2015 8:25:01 GMT -5
51.00 should now act as support in oil. Lose it and likely to see a move like what happened mid-December to mid-January. Go on to new highs holding this support and likely have a W-V bottoming pattern in play.
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Post by crumbdon on Feb 13, 2015 10:12:44 GMT -5
I really doubt oil is done dropping yet. This is the DCB. I find it hard to believe that the middle-eastern OPEC countries are done putting the hurt on Russia as well as U.S. shale.
Time will soon tell.
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Post by huh on Feb 13, 2015 11:10:09 GMT -5
Critical support now 52.00.
Look at oil from 12/15-12/23. It bear flagged into a bottoming W pattern, then went on to form lower highs and higher lows (a pennant). It then dropped another 13 points from that third lower high.
It's doing the exact same pattern now, except on a larger scale in both price and time. If it fails to make a higher here, low to mid 30's could be the target.
I'd be really cautious holding a long position & even consider a short position if it falls under 52 now. But it would be a really good odds short if it loses 49.35.
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Post by huh on Feb 13, 2015 14:04:58 GMT -5
...and the low so far after that was 52.02.
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Post by novie08 on Feb 13, 2015 18:40:08 GMT -5
I really doubt oil is done dropping yet. This is the DCB. I find it hard to believe that the middle-eastern OPEC countries are done putting the hurt on Russia as well as U.S. shale. Time will soon tell. Gotta love "our" government siding with Saudi Arabia, etc. over own prosperity!
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Post by huh on Feb 17, 2015 9:48:46 GMT -5
...and the low so far after that was 52.02. LOD 52.00 exactly, confirming the significance of this support IMO.
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Post by huh on Feb 17, 2015 10:30:40 GMT -5
...I'd be really cautious holding a long position & even consider a short position if it falls under 52 now. But it would be a really good odds short if it loses 49.35... That key support for the rally from <45 is now 49.50.
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Post by huh on Feb 17, 2015 12:03:11 GMT -5
Confused by oil. Thought it was going to take a nose dive, but RSX looks to be putting in a small rounded bottom intraday (upside target ~17.95).
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Post by huh on Feb 17, 2015 13:50:03 GMT -5
~53.70 is the final FIB resistance on today's pullback.
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Post by huh on Feb 17, 2015 13:58:49 GMT -5
~53.70 is the final FIB resistance on today's pullback. Wow. These are crazy swing moves. Oil's starting to move like Greece stocks now.
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Post by huh on Feb 19, 2015 8:58:24 GMT -5
Oil down more than 4% due to the inventory numbers out from API last night.
Since when does oil react to API numbers? And doesn't that leave room for a rally when the EIA numbers come out?
Chart says it should see at least ~49.75 on this move.
~49.70 is the 76.4 FIB from recent bottom on 02/11. Good risk reward in that area for a long. (but wouldn't sit on it very long if it loses that support)
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Post by huh on Feb 19, 2015 9:15:58 GMT -5
Bear in mind although I mentioned the possible long swing in oil above, in the larger picture I'm still bullish the dollar index unless it were to lose support of the potential typhoon/bear wringer pattern I posted previously.
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