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Post by novie08 on Dec 15, 2014 19:25:23 GMT -5
Joshua Birnbaum, the ex-Goldman Sachs Group Inc. trader who made bets against subprime mortgages during the financial crisis, now has more than $2 billion in wagers against high-yield bonds at his Tilden Park Capital Management LP hedge-fund firm, according to investor documents.
Looks like another "financial crisis" thus the Omnibus repeal of Dodd Frank and the bail-in possibilities. Anyone have any other ideas?
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Post by walnut on Dec 15, 2014 20:08:45 GMT -5
If you are wanting to bet on a little bond pullback:
Buy March ZB contracts, and sell x1000 TLT
This spread is at a huge differential right now and will re-converge very soon.
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Post by walnut on Dec 15, 2014 20:10:23 GMT -5
Joshua Birnbaum, the ex-Goldman Sachs Group Inc. trader who made bets against subprime mortgages during the financial crisis, now has more than $2 billion in wagers against high-yield bonds at his Tilden Park Capital Management LP hedge-fund firm, according to investor documents. Looks like another "financial crisis" thus the Omnibus repeal of Dodd Frank and the bail-in possibilities. Anyone have any other ideas? Carl Icahn also saying that junk bonds are a bubble. The activists are weighing in. |
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Post by novie08 on Dec 15, 2014 21:52:01 GMT -5
If you are wanting to bet on a little bond pullback: Buy March ZB contracts, and sell x1000 TLT This spread is at a huge differential right now and will re-converge very soon. You are so far above my head it isn't even funny. I would be buying TLT and shorting JNK.  So now that you posted this trade, I probably won't do anything. Agree with Huh, this market has me spooked! |
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Post by walnut on Dec 16, 2014 8:37:37 GMT -5
Well, that trade would not have worked out as of yet, bonds spiked again early today. You just don't bet against bonds these days, just don't do it!
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Post by huh on Dec 16, 2014 8:53:23 GMT -5
Well, that trade would not have worked out as of yet, bonds spiked again early today. You just don't bet against bonds these days, just don't do it! The recent 10/15 high in TLT was 127.68. This morning's pre-market high so far: 127.78. Even if it's going to continue up here due to this rounded/cup'n'handle-like pattern, I would hope to see a FIB retracing pullback from this October high area. |
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Post by novie08 on Dec 16, 2014 10:44:23 GMT -5
JNK down tho as stated in the original post.
And long TLT would've worked.
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Post by walnut on Dec 16, 2014 10:51:58 GMT -5
Yep, hi yld and treasuries are really moving in opposite directions.
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