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Post by novie08 on Dec 8, 2014 21:37:46 GMT -5
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Post by huh on Dec 8, 2014 22:33:50 GMT -5
Oil dropped to a little under 34 in January 2009 (was a little under 33 in Nov & Dec 08). Keep an eye on RSX (Russia). Oil and RSX both topped at exactly the same time this summer, and have been moving in tandem since. One of the reasons why I'm watching RSX so close. Definitely can't call a bottom in either yet, but if RSX breaks back above the summer '09 lows (orange) tomorrow, then that cat should bounce good. And oil should follow.  I don't see any more downside targets in oil, and thought it would have bounced already. If oil doesn't bounce tomorrow, next support is ~58.25. Like I said before, can't call a bottom in either quite yet. However, today was the first day that RSX fell below that summer '09 key pivot, and today was the first day oil fell below the May '10 low pivot (64.25). If both of these rise back above those pivots, that's the time to buy oil (unless a bottoming pattern appears first). JMHO |
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Post by huh on Dec 8, 2014 22:48:44 GMT -5
USO's 2009 low was 22.74.
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Post by huh on Dec 8, 2014 22:49:41 GMT -5
BTW, this is basically what a POTUS topping pattern looks like... Oil monthly chart for the past 11 years:  (the second trip up is not as rounded as the pattern normally is, and doesn't FIB perfectly in this chart - but I don't know how/if to set these charts to a logarithmic scale either) |
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Post by novie08 on Dec 9, 2014 18:00:10 GMT -5
Now that's what I'm talking about! At some point with the sovereign debt crises, capital will run to hard assets.
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Post by huh on Dec 10, 2014 9:49:36 GMT -5
Looks like I was wrong about RSX bouncing. Only bounced enough to FIB & fill the gap. Looks like continued weakness for it now.
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Post by huh on Dec 12, 2014 8:27:47 GMT -5
...I don't see any more downside targets in oil, and thought it would have bounced already. If oil doesn't bounce tomorrow, next support is ~58.25... I've been completely wrong on oil, so take this FWIW... There is possible support in oil between 58-59. This goes back to the June/July '09 lows. Even a bounce there would only get perhaps as high as ~73 on the high end of the estimate. Lose that, and I really have no idea where the next support would lie. I am surprised & worried that oil hasn't even done a dead cat bounce. ...I should add: Besides the gaps left above, I don't see any reason why RSX should rally here. |
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Post by huh on Dec 12, 2014 11:50:30 GMT -5
I never was good at knife catching.
Oil lost that 58 support.
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