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Post by maxi on Oct 28, 2014 13:38:01 GMT -5
This same exact pattern happens before every FOMC meeting. EVERY SINGLE ONE. Market gets all Dovish is gonna save us then WHATEVER the reality is whether good or bad it sells off. ( what the hell is good or bad anyway?) Fed dovish means the economy sucks eggs big time. Fed confident in economy doing okay means higher interest rate sooner. Lose Lose retail traders WTH!
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Post by huh on Oct 28, 2014 13:47:38 GMT -5
I could be wrong, but I don't think it sells off this time. Too many signs of being parabolic. Unless the market were to sell off hard (really hard) into the close, SPX should see at least 2060's-2080's. Also, SPX is right on track for the H&S-RS-squeeze-to-new-highs pattern.
XLF even confirmed parabolic today.
Without looking, anyone remember the method for identifying & measuring upside targets for parabolic moves? (hint: the unfilled gap ups are only a side effect.) XLF is a really good example.
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Post by huh on Oct 28, 2014 13:55:09 GMT -5
Today alone, IWM has cut through both its 50 & 100dma's, and even tagged its 200dma with the HOD (to the penny).
A close above 113.97 would confirm next upside target of 119.60's.
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Post by walnut on Oct 28, 2014 14:08:33 GMT -5
I'm not planning on betting either way. This could just be part of a very large roll-over, for all I know. A high dead cat bounce. Doesn't seem like it though, does it.
I mainly just want some volatility tomorrow.
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Post by huh on Oct 28, 2014 14:26:42 GMT -5
Today alone, IWM has cut through both its 50 & 100dma's, and even tagged its 200dma with the HOD (to the penny). A close above 113.97 would confirm next upside target of 119.60's. IWM has now filled the gap down from 09/19 - and completely recovered ALL of the pullback that started that day in the other indices.
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Post by huh on Oct 28, 2014 14:27:49 GMT -5
So IWM broke through it's 50, 100 & 200dma's all in one day.
As I said before re: parabolic moves...no resistance.
But that still must be some kind of record.
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Post by huh on Oct 28, 2014 14:33:35 GMT -5
XLF just hit first parabolic upside target @ 23.38. Could be only the first of many, but no other high targets exist currently.
23.33 is now parabolic support.
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Post by walnut on Oct 28, 2014 14:35:32 GMT -5
it is a screeching climb, and vix is dropping like a rock.
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Post by huh on Oct 28, 2014 14:46:24 GMT -5
it is a screeching climb, and vix is dropping like a rock. VIX has a potential target ~8.25 against resistance of 15.85. (I wouldn't play it from here now unless it confirms again tomorrow - could see some volatility going into Fed) But would that be enough to get another 80-100 more points in the S&P?
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Post by huh on Oct 28, 2014 15:41:51 GMT -5
2080's might be a little high for SPX, but I can't see exactly where the lines are on the chart until we get closer to that spot.
I'm really hoping 2025-2055 isn't the top, but we'll likely know by EOW on that one.
But make no mistake about it...this is all only a squeeze IMHO. Waaaay to many bearish patterns and failed supports out there now. In fact, it's pretty amazing that the indices continue to rise but so many names are selling off hard after earnings, especially tech. It's pretty much banks and AAPL, and dead cat bounces in some of the laggards.
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Post by huh on Oct 29, 2014 8:08:19 GMT -5
Can't attach the charts, but anyone seeing the current H&S-RS-squeeze-to-new-highs set-ups in both SPX & XLF? They're pretty obvious on the daily charts. (QQQ similar, but actually more of an island double-top forming)
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Post by huh on Oct 30, 2014 13:02:16 GMT -5
Feeling parabolic yet?
No?
Don't worry, it will.
Party like it's 10/31!
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Post by maxi on Oct 30, 2014 14:10:39 GMT -5
Key NYSE data feed has outage...... so what else is new? link
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Post by huh on Oct 30, 2014 14:12:24 GMT -5
Key NYSE data feed has outage...... so what else is new? linkI'd love to know why (and not the after-the-fact agreed upon reason either).
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Post by maxi on Oct 30, 2014 14:14:46 GMT -5
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Post by walnut on Oct 30, 2014 14:25:24 GMT -5
It made my options quotes go nuts, kinda scary when my spread is flickering from $4.40 to 3.5 over and over. They widened the spreads too. I thought the liberals must be attacking us.
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Post by huh on Oct 31, 2014 7:19:21 GMT -5
S&P futures +22.
Feel parabolic yet?
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Post by huh on Oct 31, 2014 7:24:12 GMT -5
This is where things get tricky. Indices and sector ETFs will do fine, but individual names will be much harder unless only day trading them. Think "monthly OPEX". For example...within the same sector some names will be up, some down. GPRO will likely gap'n'crap, but then something should pick up the slack for it (FB, TWTR?). Probably not AAPL, it has resistance ~108.15 and likely to pullback after hitting it - and something should pick up the slack for it. Either way, it should be "fun".
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Post by huh on Nov 5, 2014 8:45:43 GMT -5
I don't have very many calls for upside targets still open now. Nearly all of them have hit.
Could be very near the top here. Still waiting for AAPL, GS & IWM upside targets to hit (and perhaps MNKD, CLUB, AMBA). And VIX down, of course.
That's it unless market were to confirm higher for a full parabolic move. But still have a ways to go before that would occur.
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Post by huh on Nov 6, 2014 20:13:15 GMT -5
I'd love to see a monster spike...AAPL 120's, GS 205, MSFT 55's, AMZN 313, IWM 118.70's+... And do it in only a day or two. Make it an easy decision. Unfortunately the market always seems to prefer the slow, agonizing approach. I thought I had the top target range pegged for SPX. But at the rate it's currently moving up, relative to the distance a couple of these names have to go yet, would send it quite a bit higher. Either a couple of these fail to meet their upside targets, most other things dump while these continue to rise, or SPX goes fully parabolic (versus semi-parabolic). We'll see. SPX is getting close now to the semi-parabolic target/resistance. And honestly, it's hard to imagine it breaking higher than that. The move that would follow would have to be steeper than these last 2-3 weeks. That kind of move I wouldn't believe in or bet on until I see it confirm first.
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