|
Post by crumbdon on Oct 23, 2014 14:27:29 GMT -5
Might be a parEBOLAic move if true. Is that tomorrow's phantom print? (DOW -500......)
|
|
|
Post by walnut on Oct 23, 2014 15:05:45 GMT -5
I'm once again testing another arbitrage "magic" trading idea. These whipsaws are great for testing worst case scenarios. Well, my little test spread that I began before noon made a little money when the market was up sharply, and it made quite a bit of money when the market tanked. More testing but seems to work just as I'd hoped so far. Need to test in a calm market now haha
|
|
|
Post by huh on Oct 23, 2014 15:08:13 GMT -5
I'm once again testing another arbitrage "magic" trading idea. These whipsaws are great for testing worst case scenarios. Well, my little test spread that I began before noon made a little money when the market was up sharply, and it made quite a bit of money when the market tanked. More testing but seems to work just as I'd hoped so far. Need to test in a calm market now haha How would your set-up work if the market were to tank big in a single day? Would it still work?
|
|
|
Post by walnut on Oct 23, 2014 15:12:20 GMT -5
It is a vega-positive spread so a big tank should get you a new Cadillac.
Still trying to understand all the risks before I quit my day job lol
|
|
|
Post by crumbdon on Oct 23, 2014 15:45:33 GMT -5
It is a vega-positive spread so a big tank should get you a new Cadillac. Still trying to understand all the risks before I quit my day job lol I ran the Cadillac negative spread. Should get me a new Vega
|
|
|
Post by huh on Oct 23, 2014 15:46:41 GMT -5
It is a vega-positive spread so a big tank should get you a new Cadillac. Still trying to understand all the risks before I quit my day job lol I ran the Cadillac negative spread. Should get me a new Vega LOL. Even better!
|
|
|
Post by walnut on Oct 23, 2014 17:19:02 GMT -5
Better than a Pinto, slightly.
|
|
|
Post by novie08 on Oct 23, 2014 21:33:49 GMT -5
Anyone else noticed this? ... I believe every single call I've made this week has been ~1 day early. Just so you're not a dollar short. FWIW, Armstrong's model says a close below 16,660 tomorrow means a new low will come in the week of 11/3. And you know how the boyz love those 6's.
|
|
|
Post by huh on Oct 24, 2014 9:41:50 GMT -5
Let's try this again, except this time with a twist because of today's action... And now, the panic, followed with a panic gap down. Soooo.... Anyone positioned for a 5% down day tomorrow? Muhahaha Anyone else noticed this? ... I believe every single call I've made this week has been ~1 day early. Let's see if this 1 day early thingy actually works. Muhahahaha
|
|
|
Post by novie08 on Oct 24, 2014 10:06:53 GMT -5
Armstrong's other numbers are a close today above 17,010 means the low is in and Less than 16,880 means the market is kept in check. So, place your bets.
|
|
|
Post by huh on Oct 25, 2014 9:23:59 GMT -5
Armstrong's other numbers are a close today above 17,010 means the low is in and Less than 16,880 means the market is kept in check. So, place your bets. IH&S in DJI on the 30 minute points to 17005-17015. And DJI closed yesterday back above a previously lost up channel - line drawn across 02/05/14 & 08/14 lows on the daily (log) chart. QQQ closed above the final 76.4 FIB from the Sep high to recent pull back low, technically confirming the pullback is behind us (yeah, yeah, I know, a 'little' late). S&P closed above its 100dma and although it should see some resistance ~1790-1793, it sure looks like it wants higher. I definitely didn't expect the market to show so much strength into the close yesterday. I've been going on and on about a possible S&P H&S-RS-squeeze-to-new-highs by EOM, led by banks, and I feel like I got tangled in my own web! The thing is, nearly all of the individual stocks I'm watching actually look pretty bad. These include AMZN, F, CAT, DRYS, RSX, MSFT, GTE, LL and more. Even with yesterday's strong close, most of those either failed to hold a bullish breakout, failed support, or simply backtested/confirmed a larger bearish pattern. But that didn't bother the indices one iota. So long as banks hold strong, especially coupled with AAPL, the indices are unlikely to show any weakness. And now I have to wonder if these two alone won't cause all these others to squeeze their bearish patterns. VIX is the other indicator for me, and it's been making higher lows while SPX makes higher highs. Normally a very bearish indicator for the markets. But if the indices don't show some serious signs of weakness Monday, I'll have to assume new highs by EOW and into elections. But talk about being late to your own party! And I probably won't even try the punch, instead only watching from the outside.
|
|
|
Post by huh on Oct 25, 2014 10:20:02 GMT -5
...and here's the worst part...I thought with the depth of the recent pullback that perhaps we would see a double-bottom. That would have have been longer term bullish and set-up the possibility of a full parabolic move for the markets into at least March of next year, allowing the S&P to run as high as 2300-2800.
If it instead heads to 2065-2100 between 10/31-11/05, that would be the semi-parabolic scenario and that will very likely put in a final blow-off top and end this bull market. That move would complete the SPX H&S-RS-squeeze-to-new-high pattern, as well as double-tops in both NDX & DJI.
The recent gaps and velocity of this bounce, the underperformance of both small caps & many of major large caps, the volatility in both the indices & the VIX itself, and many other indicators (BB's, rising on topping patterns, etc) sure seem to be pointing to the semi-parabolic scenario if this rate of gains continue.
I've said before I doubt the S&P can go full parabolic. NDX could, but not S&P. Too many sectors covered for all of them to go parabolic at the same time.
And does 100-135 SPX points or so sound too crazy in such a short time? It's not. It just gained 144 points in only the last 8 days.
JMHO
|
|
|
Post by huh on Oct 25, 2014 10:23:27 GMT -5
Now I'm off to change my username to "Melodrama".
LOL
|
|
|
Post by walnut on Oct 25, 2014 10:31:54 GMT -5
That's why I prefer probability distributions and bell curves and variance/volatility to quantify risk. I can trade options with predictable outcomes. I found I couldn't predict the market reliably enough to suit me. You are much better at that Huh.
|
|
|
Post by maxi on Oct 25, 2014 10:33:22 GMT -5
then you can secretly play one day ahead's idea...... On a more practical note ( and something I have been thinking since MANY times the stocks I watch do not behave like the general index they belong to) is to play the ETF's. There is one guy on Twitter that has a freaking subscription service based on his ( get this and please do not fall on the floor laughing)IBB and BIS! Those are the biotech etf and the proshares ultra anti biotech fund etf's. One other thing and this is thinking WAY back to before your time here with the Fazination group, there was a chartist ( maybe more than one) around here that advocated LOG charts vs. arithmetic. Could that make any difference in your calls being a day early? Just guessing because I have yet to have the chutzpah to make actual predictions!
|
|
|
Post by huh on Oct 25, 2014 10:41:45 GMT -5
then you can secretly play one day ahead's idea...... On a more practical note ( and something I have been thinking since MANY times the stocks I watch do not behave like the general index they belong to) is to play the ETF's. There is one guy on Twitter that has a freaking subscription service based on his ( get this and please do not fall on the floor laughing)IBB and BIS! Those are the biotech etf and the proshares ultra anti biotech fund etf's. One other thing and this is thinking WAY back to before your time here with the Fazination group, there was a chartist ( maybe more than one) around here that advocated LOG charts vs. arithmetic. Could that make any difference in your calls being a day early? Just guessing because I have yet to have the chutzpah to make actual predictions! I've found that with an ETF like GDX for example, it charts WAY more accurately than individual miners. And this could make even more sense if underperforming MM's start trying to chase relative performance. So I don't think that guys off his rocker at all. And if trading more often to the bullish side, it makes even more sense. The weightings and adjustment of weightings for sector ETF's actually give them a bullish advantage (and also why the inverse sector ETFs WAAAAY underperform). As for log chart, I'm convinced now that's the way to go. This entire market moves based on FIB marks, and those are simply %'s relative to previous moves. A log chart also reflects %'s relative to previous moves. But I'm sure the log chart has nothing to do with my late & early calls. Pretty much kidding on that, though it did work for most of the calls this week. Prior to that, I was spot on the whole way down with the recent pullback, even to the 09/19 start day. But if the market were to crash Monday, I'm not kidding! LOL
|
|
|
Post by maxi on Oct 25, 2014 10:54:36 GMT -5
Just to clarify, the subscription guy is genius. What I was commenting on was the fact that he is getting PAID by all the new "traders" out in Twitter land that haven't figured out they should learn to read and use charts. The simplicity of his "system" is what I was commenting on!
|
|
|
Post by huh on Oct 25, 2014 11:32:57 GMT -5
I've been an overall bear for a long, long time in spite of the indices continuing to rise. And it was never for fundamental reasons.
But not until this recent 8 day run-up did I finally realize exactly why. It's because since very early in this current bull market, it's been rising on the back of squeezing bearish patterns, even while many names vastly underperform (you continually underperforming hedge funds out there, you know what I'm talking about). And this last 8 day run-up has been the epitome of that, magnified in both % and time.
- NDX from 12/09 to 011/10 was a large Double-topping H&S pattern (more precisely; a H&S-RS-squeeze-to-new-high pattern). Fed introduces QE2 11/10 - the bearish pattern was squeezed before completing
- SPX from 02/10 to early 10/11 was a large H&S pattern and NDX from 11/10 to early 10/11 was a large rounded top. Fed introduces Operation Twist mid-09/11 - the bearish pattern was squeezed before completing
- NDX from 01/12 to 11/12 was a rounded double-top (failed the final FIB with the 11/12 low). Fed introduces QE3 09/12 - the bearish pattern was squeezed before completing
- NDX from 12/13 to to 05/14 was a H&S pattern. Yet the market squeezed higher. Fed introduces ... continued QE tapering ??
See the pattern here? What's different this time? Why has the Fed not introduced some other form of QE yet?
Could the Fed again introduce some form of QE to squeeze this next bearish pattern forming (and all of the bearish AND bullish patterns to date are contained within this one)?
Sure. Definitely.
Will they?
I don't think so this time. There's nothing to gain now that the banks have met the stress tests; corporations sitting on record amounts of cash. They are now prepared for a worldwide economic pullback. If the Fed were to intervene again this time, SPX would then go fully parabolic. And the only thing to gain with that would be a worldwide economic collapse soon after.
JMHO
|
|
|
Post by huh on Oct 25, 2014 11:45:10 GMT -5
If no Fed intervention this time, I see SPX 1200's.
Sounds crazy, right? Well, no crazier than SPX 2800 from here, and there is a potential pattern for that also (and NDX ~5263, IWM 214). Those would be the targets if Fed intervenes again and markets go fully parabolic.
|
|
|
Post by huh on Oct 28, 2014 10:55:06 GMT -5
...S&P closed above its 100dma and although it should see some resistance ~1790-1793, it sure looks like it wants higher... Got to the resistance area. Should see a 'healthy' pullback (I hate that term). But even a 'healthy' pullback might feel like doom after this recent move. If this is actually a parabolic move now, might not even get more than a few points.
|
|