|
Post by novie08 on Oct 17, 2014 13:34:59 GMT -5
Am I the only fool thinking about shorting this today? I'd be careful but I see your point. It is after all opex Friday!
|
|
|
Post by novie08 on Oct 17, 2014 13:39:51 GMT -5
Don't ask me I'm still screwing around with the electrical circuit aftermath. btw ITMS sold that DRYS for a big 1% gain of 2cents. I thought on the vid they said it was calls at 100% profit.
|
|
|
Post by jacksrbtr on Oct 17, 2014 14:04:41 GMT -5
btw ITMS sold that DRYS for a big 1% gain of 2cents. I thought on the vid they said it was calls at 100% profit. A different play I guess...didn't hear the vid I blew my speakers in the disaster, the Casablanca fans, lights, etc what a mess. TG it didn't reach the 'puter.
|
|
|
Post by huh on Oct 17, 2014 14:14:54 GMT -5
Am I the only fool thinking about shorting this today? I'd be careful but I see your point. It is after all opex Friday! Oh yeah, I know THIS game. For example...very likely new HOD's in SPX & XLF and a new LOD in VIX coming right up.
|
|
|
Post by huh on Oct 17, 2014 14:49:49 GMT -5
I'd be careful but I see your point. It is after all opex Friday! Oh yeah, I know THIS game. For example...very likely new HOD's in SPX & XLF and a new LOD in VIX coming right up. But like I said, could perhaps spill over into Monday. If the market doesn't have the strength for it, there's always the magic of the gap. But the market does need to show some strength here in the last few minutes, otherwise the magic gap could be a gap down. (don't want to close near the lows)
|
|
|
Post by clinton on Oct 17, 2014 14:50:17 GMT -5
CLF Cliffs’ 6B writedown could wipe out shareholders’ equity, analyst says Cliffs Natural Resources' (CLF -8.4%) $6B writedown on its Q3 earnings could wipe out shareholders’ equity and could even turn it negative, BMO analyst Tony Robson warns as he points out that CLF had net shareholders’ equity of ~$6B at the end of June.Robson notes that new CEOs often take the opportunity to “sweep the broom” and get rid of assets, leading to impairments such as this one, but the sheer size of this charge "essentially confirms, subject to an upturn in prices, that the vast bulk of the company’s investments in the last decade prior to the appointment of new CEO Lourenco Goncalves was misspent."Wells Fargo's team says the markdowns call into question the ultimate sale price of CLF's non-core assets.
|
|
|
Post by huh on Oct 17, 2014 14:54:01 GMT -5
Hey, huh. Do you still see AAPL going down to 92? I'm looking to add another small pos for l-t. Thanks so much. Or what does anyone think? Anyone? AAPL fell out of the pennant and is still trading below it. The absolute minimum downside target for that is ~92.50. However there was one candle with an overshooting tail that could measure it down to ~91.80, which would also fill a gap. View AttachmentSo I would buy it around 91.80-92.50. If it weren't to get that low, then not until it's safely back into the pennant. Otherwise it would be difficult to determine a stop. Here's my only fear - sometimes these failed pennants can turn into rounded tops. So if it were to start doing some whipsaw action here (such as drop to ~93.30, then pop to peak around 99.25) then it could be topping instead. JMHO AAPL overshot the bottom of the pennant a little with that candle wick, but backtest complete.
|
|
|
Post by huh on Oct 17, 2014 15:12:19 GMT -5
Regardless of what those EOD numbers say, that was flat out some of the ugliest action I've seen. And I didn't go short, so it's not a position based opinion. Hopefully the Fed has something up their sleeve for Monday cause I'm actually worried about a gap down (and I don't mean a small one). Have a good weekend all!
|
|
|
Post by jacksrbtr on Oct 17, 2014 15:44:04 GMT -5
Regardless of what those EOD numbers say, that was flat out some of the ugliest action I've seen. And I didn't go short, so it's not a position based opinion. Hopefully the Fed has something up their sleeve for Monday cause I'm actually worried about a gap down (and I don't mean a small one). Have a good weekend all! Yeah Huh & Gang - have a great w/e!
|
|
|
Post by crumbdon on Oct 17, 2014 20:33:40 GMT -5
Regardless of what those EOD numbers say, that was flat out some of the ugliest action I've seen. And I didn't go short, so it's not a position based opinion. Hopefully the Fed has something up their sleeve for Monday cause I'm actually worried about a gap down (and I don't mean a small one). Have a good weekend all! I was thinking to myself that the close was not the least bit awe-inspiring, then I opened up Fazination and saw your post. I agree that Mon has the potential to have some serious destruction (barring some more Unicorn news from the Fed, of course!). Holding exactly zero positions going into the weekend
|
|
|
Post by clinton on Oct 18, 2014 11:28:03 GMT -5
Regardless of what those EOD numbers say, that was flat out some of the ugliest action I've seen. And I didn't go short, so it's not a position based opinion. Hopefully the Fed has something up their sleeve for Monday cause I'm actually worried about a gap down (and I don't mean a small one). Have a good weekend all! I was thinking to myself that the close was not the least bit awe-inspiring, then I opened up Fazination and saw your post. I agree that Mon has the potential to have some serious destruction (barring some more Unicorn news from the Fed, of course!). Holding exactly zero positions going into the weekend Im thinking this is the dance they do to suck in retail shorters Paint that close bearish
|
|
|
Post by huh on Oct 18, 2014 12:25:55 GMT -5
The close wasn't so bad...in fact a little squeeze of small rounded H&S' in all 3 indices. It's where the HOD's occurred, and the rounded tops that bother me. Both QQQ and DJI peaked at the 76.4 FIB from the 10/13 highs. And in the case of DJI, a large potential bear flag was created with that peak.
And then there's IWM. That huge potential topping pattern that it closed below on Friday suggests another 10%+ drop from here. And there's so many other bearish set-ups out there in individual names. For example, those potential island tops in GOOG & INTC downright scare me.
However, I do still hope to see that H&S-RS-squeeze-to-new-highs happen. And all the Fed has to do is push the end of QE back even by a month and this market will rally big. But time is about up.
There is a possible iH&S formed in SPX that points to 1979. That would get it going. Problem is that it's already showing multiple signs of failing; and Friday's action formed a smaller H&S pointing below the support for that large iH&S.
I do always keep in mind that when the charts appear the most bearish to me, and they do now, that's normally when a squeeze occurs. If SPX can hold the 200dma Monday, there's a really good chance for that squeeze to happen. But gapping up to 1903-1908 Monday morning, and then losing the 200dma, would be very, very bad. If that happens, I see sub-1800 next, bounce again, then 1650's.
Monday sets up the next big move. Either squeeze, or bear market confirmed. For me, a close over 1906 confirms new highs. But any move under SPX 1873 completely kills that hope.
I'm hoping for the squeeze scenario, but expecting the worst.
JMHO
|
|
|
Post by huh on Oct 18, 2014 13:37:39 GMT -5
...and why is Monday so important?
Remember that in the early part of this downtrend, the market was selling off early in the week then getting a nice bounce between Wed-Fri. I believe this was so that MM's could sell at a higher price to new money flows which come on Mon and Tue.
This current bounce (note it started on Wed and ended on Fri) is by far the biggest bounce this downtrend has seen. This is where it can finally break the downtrend. And it can do that by being green on Monday. If it doesn't, that only sets up the next down leg.
I as much as anybody hope that we see that final H&S squeeze. I've seen that set-up in IWM, QQQ and so many other things. Would make sense that S&P might get a crack at it. Monday's the test of it.
|
|
|
Post by Herceg on Oct 18, 2014 13:48:10 GMT -5
The only way this mkt. can sustain a rally is when some FED officials whisper the possibility of continued Bond purchases or pushing rate increases even further out than originally planned............it just goes to show this mkt. is so reliant on the Fed that it cannot stand on it's own.............sort of like a workout junkie on steroids having to rely on sheer body building to maintain his strength............anybody who says the Fed has nothing to do with this mkt. is a LIAR !!!!
JMO and BOL.....
|
|