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Post by huh on Nov 4, 2014 10:23:56 GMT -5
and the UUP is a ittle red today very strange energy market lately I wouldn't play this since it's such a long shot, but ... charts could easily support a quick move in oil from ~75 to 91/92, if only for a backtest of failed support (and if it happened it would likely begin with a gap-up).
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Post by clinton on Nov 4, 2014 10:39:03 GMT -5
starting to smell like when Japan dumped steel till all of our mills went BK
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Post by huh on Nov 4, 2014 10:43:56 GMT -5
Anyway to tell if any of that is currency related? Dollar has been on a tear.
Though I suppose fundamentally it makes sense as well - US stops buying majority of oil from them, instead using WTI, so they start selling to Asia, Russia and Europe. Now those economies start falling apart and Saudis want that US business back.
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Post by birthmark on Nov 4, 2014 12:48:47 GMT -5
Hey Clint (or anyone else)-- Have you ever owned PGH?
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Post by jacksrbtr on Nov 4, 2014 13:04:23 GMT -5
Hey Clint (or anyone else)-- Have you ever owned PGH? I lived there once...a couple years almost. Women there came cold-rolled at the time.
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Post by clinton on Nov 6, 2014 2:01:44 GMT -5
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Post by clinton on Nov 6, 2014 2:02:13 GMT -5
Hey Clint (or anyone else)-- Have you ever owned PGH? not I
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Post by huh on Nov 6, 2014 14:49:27 GMT -5
Oil not looking so great in the very near term here. Obama Polls pattern. If it loses 77.75, should finally test that 75.00 support. Resistance is 78.25 now.
Unfortunately these move usually happen overnight.
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Post by clinton on Nov 7, 2014 10:03:38 GMT -5
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Post by huh on Nov 7, 2014 10:06:46 GMT -5
Held that 77.75 support.
Go oil! Go oil!
I'd love to see 91-92 sometime Monday, along with another higher high in SPX.
Someone blow up another pipeline!
LOL
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Post by clinton on Nov 12, 2014 7:25:49 GMT -5
OPEC oil output drops by 300,000 b/d in October, Platts reports
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Post by huh on Nov 12, 2014 8:39:52 GMT -5
Still some hope here, but must hold 76.80's (worst case). Upside breakout over 77.50, but target only 79.00 for now.
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Post by clinton on Nov 12, 2014 11:12:38 GMT -5
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Post by clinton on Nov 12, 2014 11:13:56 GMT -5
production ramping up in US.
expensive rigs will get hurt
probably bearish deep water
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Post by huh on Nov 13, 2014 9:01:28 GMT -5
Oil didn't hold that support. Perhaps it can hold the 75 psych support, but after this, I give up trying to make bounce calls on this one.
The longer term chart says down. However after reviewing both the oil and USO long term charts, I am still really surprised that this hasn't seen a backtest of failed support (Oil ~90, USO high 34's), or at least a decent retracement bounce. Don't know if this means it will see one large, quick dead cat bounce, or if this continued downward pressure is simply a reflection of an utter and complete lack of oil buyers. It's uncommon to see something like this sell-off without so much as a FIB retracement of the larger move.
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Post by huh on Nov 13, 2014 10:02:44 GMT -5
Oil nearing 75.00 now (~75.50).
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Post by clinton on Nov 13, 2014 11:30:55 GMT -5
Concerns over a growing imbalance between global crude oil production and consumption continue to weigh on crude oil prices. The alleviation of global crude oil supply disruptions and continuing production increases from North America occur at a time when global demand for petroleum products is weakening, loosening the global crude oil market. Potential actions from members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), geopolitical concerns in oil-producing countries, and uncertainty over future global economic growth elevate crude oil price risk going forward. The WTI futures curve switched into contango (when near-term prices are less than longer-dated ones) for the first time since February 2013. The 1st-13th spread settled at -$0.70/bbl on November 6, a decline of $4.67/bbl since October 1 (Figure 2). Crude oil imports into the United States were relatively constant from September to October, and with U.S. refineries currently undergoing planned maintenance, crude oil inventories rose, putting downward pressure on near-term prices. U.S. commercial crude oil inventories increased by 20.7 million barrels in October, about 16 million barrels higher than the average September to October inventory build over the previous five years. www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo/uncertainty/
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Post by walnut on Nov 13, 2014 12:32:15 GMT -5
I'm going to go fill up the tank!
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Post by huh on Nov 13, 2014 12:43:02 GMT -5
Finally testing 75.00. It's short term chart looks like a parabolic move turned upside down.
Would need a break over 76.15 now to set-up even a dead cat bounce.
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Post by clinton on Nov 14, 2014 8:43:55 GMT -5
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