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Monday
Aug 25, 2014 11:17:16 GMT -5
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Herceg likes this
Post by crumbdon on Aug 25, 2014 11:17:16 GMT -5
SPY lightly selling here, but XLF holding steady. This isn't gonna drop much at all today.
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Post by huh on Aug 25, 2014 11:19:08 GMT -5
Got stopped out of AMD @ 4.20 for ~8% gain.
Not so exciting after seeing what I could have done in DGLY instead in only a fraction of the time.
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Monday
Aug 25, 2014 11:24:00 GMT -5
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Herceg likes this
Post by crumbdon on Aug 25, 2014 11:24:00 GMT -5
Hmmmmm...may have a bad feed here misleading me. Gotta check things better here.
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Post by huh on Aug 25, 2014 11:25:35 GMT -5
As the man said, the market should go red.
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Post by dino on Aug 25, 2014 11:26:40 GMT -5
I was betting on overbought conditions and the classic holiday reversal when I got some SPXU last week. Expected a teeney gap up, not this. Still expecting a slight slide (nothing major). We'll see.
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Post by crumbdon on Aug 25, 2014 12:49:46 GMT -5
SPY 200 a concrete slab of support. Technically not significant, but psychologically it's HUGE. Big round # support plus strong Fins = a tough nut to crack. Not saying it can't happen, just saying I'll be amazed if it does. Think about it, we've been straight up in short order since 1900, obliterating whatever bears there might have been. Who wants to sell now?
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Post by huh on Aug 25, 2014 14:05:28 GMT -5
Feels like a strong day, but charts are saying otherwise: Similar patterns in IWM, SPX, etc. Small topping patterns followed by FIB retracing bear flags/continuation rounded tops.
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Post by dino on Aug 25, 2014 14:07:26 GMT -5
SPY 200 a concrete slab of support. Technically not significant, but psychologically it's HUGE. Big round # support plus strong Fins = a tough nut to crack. Not saying it can't happen, just saying I'll be amazed if it does. Think about it, we've been straight up in short order since 1900, obliterating whatever bears there might have been. Who wants to sell now? ES up 109.5 points in 12 sessions (~2 weeks).
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Post by crumbdon on Aug 25, 2014 14:20:57 GMT -5
If we weren't in the final "break-all-the-rules (fools?)" phase if the market, I'd be screaming "Down!", but I think there are a few more traps to set on both sides of the pond first.
BTW, nobody wants big down more than me. And Herc (my bear-in-arms).
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Post by huh on Aug 25, 2014 14:47:05 GMT -5
Feels like a strong day, but charts are saying otherwise: [chart] Similar patterns in IWM, SPX, etc. Small topping patterns followed by FIB retracing bear flags/continuation rounded tops. Unbelievable. Seen that same set-up work hundreds of times in at least dozens of names. Should have fallen straight down since I posted. Market up, VIX up, dollar up, bonds up, oil down, nat gas up, even many of the gold miners up. Correlations are dead I guess. Go ahead Mr. Market, keep squeezing it. I dare you. Even the bears wouldn't like the outcome.
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Post by crumbdon on Aug 25, 2014 14:51:48 GMT -5
Your analysis is sound. Give it a day it two to fool both sides. Can't stay this disconnected for long.
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Post by crumbdon on Aug 25, 2014 14:54:11 GMT -5
BTW, I'd like the outcome. What does that make me?
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Post by huh on Aug 25, 2014 14:57:24 GMT -5
BTW, I'd like the outcome. What does that make me? A dog! lol
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Monday
Aug 25, 2014 15:02:22 GMT -5
Post by huh on Aug 25, 2014 15:02:22 GMT -5
This close should set-up for a gap down tomorrow. QQQ lost that channel, then back tested it right toward the end of the day. XLF also lost it's FIB supports.
But there was a day similar to this last week, and it didn't happen - continued higher instead.
Will it fall now that we got the 2000 test out of the way?
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Monday
Aug 25, 2014 15:12:06 GMT -5
via mobile
huh likes this
Post by crumbdon on Aug 25, 2014 15:12:06 GMT -5
BTW, I'd like the outcome. What does that make me? A dog! lol And a dirty one at that, mate!
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Post by crumbdon on Aug 25, 2014 15:25:46 GMT -5
Will it fall now that we got the 2000 test out of the way? I wondered that too, but 2000 is really only a psych point, not a technical. So will it matter? I don't know..... BTW, if we get a gap down, it will likely be met with a flurry of buying, even if it's just retail sheep. But if it shows weakness after filling the gap, it might be a decent short, even if only short-term. Good, useful dialog on the threads today, IMO. Glad this board hasn't died
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Post by walnut on Aug 25, 2014 21:16:11 GMT -5
Think I might have found a well-hedged arbitrage setup. Can't wait to test it...
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Post by walnut on Aug 25, 2014 21:28:22 GMT -5
You are not supposed to be able to earn extra returns on a risk-adjusted basis, so they teach in school.
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Post by crumbdon on Aug 25, 2014 22:24:18 GMT -5
Yeah, well....Huh's setup identified above wasn't supposed to fail today either. I guess the only rule with this market is.....there are no rules! Find a system where you can identify an advantage, and then TAKE IT!
GL, man.
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Post by walnut on Aug 25, 2014 22:42:35 GMT -5
These "perfect hedge" deals should not exist, and invariably don't.. but I am looking forward to testing it.
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