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Post by huh on Jul 30, 2014 9:28:45 GMT -5
NFLX looks like a large classic double-top forming on the daily. The second top also being a head test of the previous failed H&S. Ideal short entry would be around 451.95 if that gap were to fill. Disclaimer: I've been wrong being bearish on this one before. Though even then I called a bounce from 320 to 389, but it only got as high as 381.
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Post by huh on Jul 30, 2014 9:43:39 GMT -5
If averaging in, my first short would be ~437.50. Here's why - a closer look at this second top: That's if it doesn't lose this small H&S neckline first.
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Post by huh on Aug 7, 2014 16:12:10 GMT -5
NFLX now in that gap fill area I first posted about. If turns in fact out to be a double-top, the ideal place to short it is about here (short 448-452, first downside target 370-372).
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Post by huh on Aug 7, 2014 16:39:47 GMT -5
I like the short NFLX / long AMZN hedge set-up here.
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Post by huh on Aug 8, 2014 8:21:58 GMT -5
I like the short NFLX / long AMZN hedge set-up here. NFLX should set-up as a good short with this morning's pop. If I'm right, it should then turn and close red by EOD. I'd wait on the AMZN long a bit yet - until ~307 or lower, or above 316 (or for VIX 19-20). JMHO
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Post by huh on Aug 11, 2014 9:14:28 GMT -5
NFLX way overshot that 451.95 gap fill. Looks like I could be way wrong on this one.
But nearing top BB and I expect it to fall by the close. However, worst case stop (mental stop) would be a hold over 461 for a few minutes.
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Post by huh on Aug 11, 2014 10:45:56 GMT -5
Here's what I'm seeing in NFLX - the white channels. Drew a channel across the recent bottoms, and moved it up to the 07/30 high. Today's high hit exactly on it at the same time it hit the top BB. A confirmed breakout over that channel and I'm wrong about the top. But short trade still in play unless that happens. JMHO
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Post by huh on Aug 13, 2014 7:35:33 GMT -5
I like the short NFLX / long AMZN hedge set-up here. AMZN up as high as 2.7% in pre-market. As I said before, that 304 area should be the near term low as it makes it's run back to the highs (409-410). The launch of their smart phone and now this credit card thingy should be the "reasons" it happens. Careful chasing right at the open though - it has resistance ~328.00. Would expect it may fill today's gap up (319.32-321.31) first, but there's also support ~324.90.
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Post by huh on Aug 13, 2014 8:37:48 GMT -5
And so much for that 328 resistance in AMZN. Next resistances are 330.50 (50dma) and 333.75 (FIB resistance).
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Post by huh on Aug 13, 2014 16:35:52 GMT -5
Today's high in NFLX would now be the stop against a short position.
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Post by huh on Aug 14, 2014 9:09:28 GMT -5
Today's high in NFLX would now be the stop against a short position. WTH? Saw that AMZN green & NFLX red - as expected. Then saw NFLX had a quick morning spike over y'day's high! That's why I almost never use hard stops. Them F'ers. That desperate move by MM's does support the topping theory though.
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Post by huh on Aug 20, 2014 9:59:25 GMT -5
If NFLX were to hit 475+, would be a good spot to short it (still as a hedge against that AMZN long)
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Post by huh on Aug 21, 2014 8:53:01 GMT -5
If NFLX were to hit 475+, would be a good spot to short it (still as a hedge against that AMZN long) 475.87 was the spot - previous high. Could still get as high as top BB ~480 yet today. Tight stop & first downside target ~434 (& that could create an iH&S).
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Post by huh on Aug 22, 2014 14:02:36 GMT -5
This stock got the best of me. I give up on it. I can't call this one for anything.
Would have to stop out over HOD (478.50) now.
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Post by huh on Aug 29, 2014 7:57:26 GMT -5
Interesting article on problems NFLX has been facing with Comcast... The Netflix Case Against Comcast In One ChartWhen it comes to making calls to short NFLX, NFLX has handedly kicked my butt. So I'm done with that. But I want to leave it with some thoughts... I think I'm pretty good at recognizing and predicting fundamental patterns, strengths and weaknesses when it comes to tech companies. Even if the short term moves in pps don't reflect it right away. I did that whole write-up years ago predicting Samsung would become the dominant player over AAPL in the smart phone market, and why. And when I wrote that, AAPL was kicking Samsung's but in that market. I predicted long ago that BBRY would have about zero share of the cell phone market. That came true, although it's still barely reflected in the stock price. Before the FB IPO, I predicted that FB would pullback hard, and then rally in the longer term. And remember at the time they went public, most tech companies were rallying big at first, then falling hard later. Anyway, mark my words - NFLX is in some serious trouble here fundamentally. They are getting hit on both sides. Their content costs got squeezed so hard that they had to severely limit their product offering. And now this Net Neutrality thing. (I still find it amazing that the gov would even grant such control to the larger players) So NFLX's competitors not only have control over both NFLX's content and it's costs, but also over NFLX prices & quality in the delivery of that same content. And on top of all of that, new competitors are popping up all of the time (ie. HULU, AMZN...). And some of these are the very same companies that provide NFLX with it's content! (ie. recently new MGM & EPIC movie channels). And if all that isn't enough, there's also the free content providers out there that provide far more than NFLX could ever hope to provide (ie. XBMC). There's major changes occurring in the way we receive visual media, and even the way that the content producers profit from it. Unfortunately NFLX not only has no control of either side of that equation, maneuvers are underway to take them out of the equation entirely. NFLX's best hope? One of the more powerful players buy them out. But why would they? Cost of entry is relatively extremely cheap.
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