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Post by crumbdon on Jul 29, 2014 8:01:30 GMT -5
Huh, I think what you just said is the smartest thing I've yet heard on the elusive top. +1!
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Post by huh on Aug 11, 2014 21:09:48 GMT -5
I've said before that I thought all of 2013 was only a short squeeze; From ST:
RyanDetrick
According to ICI, since the start of '13 there have been net OUTFLOWS from equity funds. Wow. $SPY stks.co/h0vuB
And I believe that 2014 is the topping process.
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Post by crumbdon on Aug 11, 2014 22:34:51 GMT -5
Wow, that's sobering. Thanks for showing the source of this info, otherwise I would've thought someone was mistaken, or playing tricks. (or the Huh was messing with my head ) I'm inclined to agree with the long topping process known otherwise as "2014".....
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Post by huh on Aug 19, 2014 8:07:24 GMT -5
From ST:
chicagosean If true, whoa! "@aquavisions: Almost 1/2 of the EPS in the $SPY this year is due to Stock Buy Backs! STAGGERING and a little unsettling!"
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Post by huh on Aug 19, 2014 8:15:04 GMT -5
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Post by huh on Sept 1, 2014 13:51:32 GMT -5
Here's another good TA example that pretty much sums up why I think we are forming a top here.
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Post by huh on Sept 3, 2014 7:59:06 GMT -5
Here's another good TA example that pretty much sums up why I think we are forming a top here. [ chart] ...GS was the other large cap forming this same squeezing pattern. (I couldn't remember which one it was when posting this)
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Post by huh on Sept 3, 2014 8:03:22 GMT -5
Posted this over the weekend: Such a significant upside target hit in NDX this week yet I don't see anyone talking about it; [ chart] Same set-up in the QQQ's. NDX and QQQ's hitting the minimum upside target for the 2008-20113 28 month iH&S. This is a significant target, and anything between NDX 4090-4150 satisfies it. Another reason this area is significant is because it's also the highs of Aug/Sep '00. This was a 61.8 FIB retracement of the first fall after the Mar '00 top (the tech bubble top). That was the final high before a 2+ year bear market. Should see some volatility & resistance in this area. But I don't think it will be the peak - still have higher upside targets in things like AMZN, AAPL, TSLA, GS, etc. But I do also believe that we are seeing a H&S top being put in for NDX, and the left shoulder is already in. The head should form another smaller topping pattern meaning we should expect to see a pullback before the next run to new highs begins.
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Post by huh on Sept 20, 2014 9:25:35 GMT -5
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Post by clinton on Sept 20, 2014 9:30:21 GMT -5
great presentation I took all my 401K out of equities for go away in MAY..........of 2013 LOL Im still waiting for the huge pull back
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Post by huh on Sept 20, 2014 9:37:48 GMT -5
great presentation I took all my 401K out of equities for go away in MAY..........of 2013 LOL Im still waiting for the huge pull back And the thing is, unless that 401K was entirely in indices, you're likely not missing much. I've got 2 market invested college funds and both are flat to down on the year (one is aggressive growth and the other conservative). Unfortunately I have no choice in who manages those or exactly which stocks they invest in (state mandated funds). I can only park them in cash.
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Post by huh on Sept 20, 2014 9:44:44 GMT -5
I still see those upside targets in things like AMZN, AAPL and GS. And of those three, I feel 99% confident that AMZN will hit it's target in order to form a double-top with the previous high (about 80% confident on the other two). And this means that NDX will likely double top with it's 2000 highs. But Friday's late day action was ugly in my opinion. So I see things going one of two ways - a pullback here and then a blow-off to new highs near end of October (as I showed in that projection chart I posted), or, - simply keep rising from here for a top even sooner in early October. Either way it means a major top is being formed. JMHO
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Post by sloop on Sept 20, 2014 10:29:49 GMT -5
I hope you're right but with zero interest to the banks it's hard to say. remember they're trading with free money, It could go on forever. I gambled with the double top on the DOW with the DXD and it didn't come to pass.
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Post by clinton on Sept 22, 2014 8:58:50 GMT -5
great presentation I took all my 401K out of equities for go away in MAY..........of 2013 LOL Im still waiting for the huge pull back And the thing is, unless that 401K was entirely in indices, you're likely not missing much. I've got 2 market invested college funds and both are flat to down on the year (one is aggressive growth and the other conservative). Unfortunately I have no choice in who manages those or exactly which stocks they invest in (state mandated funds). I can only park them in cash. I have it in some kind of real estate fund. pays on avg 8% so not bad so far
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Post by huh on Sept 30, 2014 18:28:03 GMT -5
From ST:
allstarcharts 84% of stocks on the NYSE were down this month $NYX $NYA Bearish
allstarcharts 72.5% of the stocks on the NYSE were down this quarter $NYX $NYA
RyanDetrick US Dollar up 7.8% for quarter. Largest quarterly gain since 3Q '08 when gained 9.6%. Not best time to be long $SPY, huh? $FXE $FXY $UUP
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Post by huh on Sept 30, 2014 18:30:28 GMT -5
↑ Seems to me the major indices have some catching up (down) to do.
The ironic thing is about the time they do, it will be time to start buying for the final leg up. And most won't believe how much and how fast I think it might happen - though I do pretty much suck projecting how long these moves take.
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