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Post by Herceg on Apr 30, 2014 8:47:15 GMT -5
POWI, AUXL, TWTR...
JMO and BOL..............
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Post by huh on Apr 30, 2014 8:51:35 GMT -5
You see that H&S in AUXL? Sitting right above neckline currently.
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Post by Herceg on Apr 30, 2014 9:02:33 GMT -5
You see that H&S in AUXL? Sitting right above neckline currently. This is one is coming down......how much is to be determined but gravity will pull it........... JMO and BOL..........
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Post by Herceg on Apr 30, 2014 9:04:51 GMT -5
You see that H&S in AUXL? Sitting right above neckline currently. Huh, if it is not too much trouble can you post your chart.............I'm curious at how you have it set up and what exactly you see compared to what I'm looking at. I'm always looking to learn things that I might be overlooking......... Thanks and much appreciated !!!!
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Post by huh on Apr 30, 2014 9:22:54 GMT -5
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Post by Herceg on Apr 30, 2014 9:31:50 GMT -5
Thank you very much for the chart..............expect more downside over the coming weeks but I took what I could get........may revisit again.....one of my better timed trades...........shorted 200 shares at 23.71 and covered at 22.79............ JMO and BOL...........
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Post by huh on Apr 30, 2014 9:34:17 GMT -5
Thank you very much for the chart..............expect more downside over the coming weeks but I took what I could get........may revisit again.....one of my better timed trades...........shorted 200 shares at 23.71 and covered at 22.79............ JMO and BOL........... Nice play and timing on the cover Herc.
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Post by Herceg on Apr 30, 2014 9:36:52 GMT -5
I finally found a way to post the actual trades like PH did...........never knew how to do it via Scottrade without posting my account info....LOL....Of course wish I took a bigger position but after chasing last week I did not want that type of headache...........
AUXL - 10:27:13 Bought to Cover 200s @ $22.7785 - Total:$4,562.70 AUXL - 09:46:05 Sold Short 200s @ $23.7103 - Total:$4,734.95 1 Roundtrip trade today
BOL to all............
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Post by Herceg on Apr 30, 2014 11:03:30 GMT -5
Nice play and timing on the cover Herc. I guess not as good as I hoped........currently 21.80...........another $200 left on the table.................I need a bigger account and bigger ...... BOL to all..................
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Post by huh on Apr 30, 2014 11:15:09 GMT -5
Nice play and timing on the cover Herc. I guess not as good as I hoped........currently 21.80...........another $200 left on the table.................I need a bigger account and bigger ...... BOL to all.................. You made money, that's all that matters. You could have set a stop at the neckline (~23.28) and held it, taking the risk that it FIBs and gap fills on you, giving you a smaller gain. But I think you're in a better position now. Wait for it to back test the neckline and short it again with a tight stop. Large pps reactions to news usually last 2 days, so if it backtests that yet today, odds for a successful short increase. "Coincidentally", today's opening price is at the neckline. The 61.8 FIB from today's high to low sits ~23.23. So you've got your upside targets to short. It should start it's dead cat bounce for that 23.23-23.28 range right about here (21.50's) if it's going to happen today.
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Post by huh on Apr 30, 2014 11:17:23 GMT -5
BTW...IMHO anytime you cover a short for a gain, and the the stock is trading under it's bottom BB, you did the right thing. No matter what happens afterward.
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Post by jacksrbtr on Apr 30, 2014 11:24:41 GMT -5
BTW...IMHO anytime you cover a short for a gain, and the the stock is trading under it's bottom BB, you did the right thing. No matter what happens afterward. In my case the rule is slightly different: "Anytime I cover a short for ANY gain is a fukking miracle."
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Post by Herceg on Apr 30, 2014 11:49:33 GMT -5
You made money, that's all that matters. You could have set a stop at the neckline (~23.28) and held it, taking the risk that it FIBs and gap fills on you, giving you a smaller gain. But I think you're in a better position now. Wait for it to back test the neckline and short it again with a tight stop. Large pps reactions to news usually last 2 days, so if it backtests that yet today, odds for a successful short increase. "Coincidentally", today's opening price is at the neckline. The 61.8 FIB from today's high to low sits ~23.23. So you've got your upside targets to short. It should start it's dead cat bounce for that 23.23-23.28 range right about here (21.50's) if it's going to happen today. I really need to get a better understanding of these fibs...........I never know whether to do it on a 12 month chart or what? I tried that picking the bottom on a 12 month and drawing it to its highest point and the chart lists the fib lines for me. Do I stick with 12 month charts, 60 min, 30 min or what ?? Any advice would be greatly be appreciated..........
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Post by huh on Apr 30, 2014 13:33:01 GMT -5
FIBs aren't time dependent. They're simply a measured move relative to the moves before it. And those previous moves are themselves FIBs - relative moves to the moves that came before them. The only time you might want to consider a time frame on FIBs is if you are trading a specific pattern. In that case, you may want to draw the FIBs on the same time frame. For example, GOOG's H&S on the daily. If trading the H&S pattern and short around the neckline, you could hold onto that short, only stopping out if it holds above the 76.4 FIB (purple arrow): See where I started that FIB with the 04/16 high? Why there? Because that was the last close before losing the neckline this last time. BUT, it was also the last major direction change on the daily - and that high was a FIB retracement of the down move before it. But you don't have to stop there. You could zoom in and time the moves even closer using the FIBs. In fact, there have been at least a dozen FIB retracements in GOOG today - both up and down. That's how HFTs make their money. On those smaller moves. And that's how patterns form (patterns in charts are simply a graphical representation of the result of a mathematical formula after all): -A stock rises then retraces 50%, forms a bull flag. But why the parallel channel on the flag?... -A trending stock (up or down) retracing the previous move the same percentage each time forms a parallel channel. -A stock retraces 50% of a recent down move, then turns back down and retraces 50% of that move, then turns up and retraces 50% of that move...etc. That forms a symmetrical triangle. -A slightly more complicated set-up involving a failed pattern forms a H&S. You get the idea. Anyway... So in this case, you could cover your short if GOOG rose above the 50% FIB (530), go long for the 61.8 FIB (536.50), short it again there with a tight stop against that same FIB. If stopped out, long to the 76.4 FIB (544.50), then short it again. You see? It really depends on how often you want to trade it, and what pattern you're trading. I'm a swing trader, so I'd play the H&S and only stop out now over the 50 FIB. (not the 76.4 FIB anymore because it tested the 50 FIB already, then failed the one below it. If it rises above that now, why sit short on it? Could squeeze over all the FIBs. But I would reshort it at the 76.4 FIB with a tight stop, or wait for it to fail another FIB on the way back down. I hope this makes some sense. It's very hard to show with a picture or two and only words. Would be much easier with a video.
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Post by Herceg on Apr 30, 2014 13:38:31 GMT -5
Huh, Thanks for the fantastic information that you provided. I am going to try it on some stocks and see how it works based on your information. I will see how it mirrors the actual moves in the stock to make sure I have a good understanding of it..............This should help immensely with not closing short or long positions too soon.........I will keep you posted on my results and if I have any questions......
Thanks again to you and BOL !!!!
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Post by huh on Apr 30, 2014 13:47:27 GMT -5
In most of your cases Herc, it's pretty easy:
When you short it and it starts down, start a FIB from that recent high and keep following the other end of the FIB down with each new low. Only stop out if it rises above the 61.8 or 76.4 FIB. You might get stopped out for less than you would have otherwise, but you wouldn't miss the bigger trades. And if you always trade it in the direction of the larger pattern, trend or direction, you shouldn't get stopped out that often. (keep in mind - algo love to grab those stops a penny or two above the highest FIB)
It basically works like a trailing stop - except that it's using a % of the move previous to it, not a % of the last high or low pps.
Definitely try it "virtually" before using it on real trades.
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Post by huh on Apr 30, 2014 13:50:18 GMT -5
Oh...and another reason I wouldn't sit short on GOOG over 530 now is that yesterday's highs was a 76.4 retracement from the 04/22 high. Get above that now and almost certainly going to squeeze at least to that purple arrow to really test the break below the neckline. Max squeeze nearly always wins in this Fed induced market.
I'd love to sit down with you some day at a computer and show you this. Sounds so complicated but really easy when explained in real time.
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Post by jacksrbtr on Apr 30, 2014 15:42:05 GMT -5
FIBs aren't time dependent. They're simply a measured move relative to the moves before it. And those previous moves are themselves FIBs - relative moves to the moves that came before them. The only time you might want to consider a time frame on FIBs is if you are trading a specific pattern. In that case, you may want to draw the FIBs on the same time frame. For example, GOOG's H&S on the daily. If trading the H&S pattern and short around the neckline, you could hold onto that short, only stopping out if it holds above the 76.4 FIB (purple arrow): View AttachmentSee where I started that FIB with the 04/16 high? Why there? Because that was the last close before losing the neckline this last time. BUT, it was also the last major direction change on the daily - and that high was a FIB retracement of the down move before it. But you don't have to stop there. You could zoom in and time the moves even closer using the FIBs. In fact, there have been at least a dozen FIB retracements in GOOG today - both up and down. That's how HFTs make their money. On those smaller moves. And that's how patterns form (patterns in charts are simply a graphical representation of the result of a mathematical formula after all): -A stock rises then retraces 50%, forms a bull flag. But why the parallel channel on the flag?... -A trending stock (up or down) retracing the previous move the same percentage each time forms a parallel channel. -A stock retraces 50% of a recent down move, then turns back down and retraces 50% of that move, then turns up and retraces 50% of that move...etc. That forms a symmetrical triangle. -A slightly more complicated set-up involving a failed pattern forms a H&S. You get the idea. Anyway... So in this case, you could cover your short if GOOG rose above the 50% FIB (530), go long for the 61.8 FIB (536.50), short it again there with a tight stop against that same FIB. If stopped out, long to the 76.4 FIB (544.50), then short it again. You see? It really depends on how often you want to trade it, and what pattern you're trading. I'm a swing trader, so I'd play the H&S and only stop out now over the 50 FIB. (not the 76.4 FIB anymore because it tested the 50 FIB already, then failed the one below it. If it rises above that now, why sit short on it? Could squeeze over all the FIBs. But I would reshort it at the 76.4 FIB with a tight stop, or wait for it to fail another FIB on the way back down. I hope this makes some sense. It's very hard to show with a picture or two and only words. Would be much easier with a video. There ya go - make a series of vids, start a trading advisory, make a few $Mil and retire in Mazatlan and watch migrating whales. Wait a minute that's what I wanna do.
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Post by huh on Apr 30, 2014 19:46:05 GMT -5
HercegA little more info on what I was talking about with the FIBs & time frames. We know that it's retraced to the 50% FIB from the last close above the neckline. But zooming in a little closer using the 30 minute chart, we can run the FIB lines from the last time it FIB retraced under the neckline: That's a confluence of FIBs - Yesterday's high was a 50% retrace from the close over the neckline, AND a 76.4 retracement from the 04/22 high (the last major FIB retracement since the neckine). As I said before, time frames really don't matter much for FIBs. I only zoomed in in order to see it in more detail. But that last time it FIBbed, the high on 04/22, remains the same, regardless of the time frame. This confluence almost always happens when you are measuring a FIB retracement within another FIB retracement. This type of "FIBbing" continues until it runs out of room and has to break out one way or another. Sort of like a stock forming a pennant. Or when it's seeing compressing Bollinger Bands. It's gotta pop one way or the other very soon now. What do I mean? Let's zoom in even closer now (circled area in chart above) and draw the FIBs from the high of that FIB retracement to the recent low: See what's happening? FIB'd again. Right to the 76.4 FIB, again. FIBs are getting tighter and tighter. By tomorrow's close we should know the next short term direction for GOOG. Likely much sooner than that though. When starting a new FIB measurement, I use to FIB every previous swing move to double-check that it was actually a FIB retracement that I was starting from. It's not necessary. They are 99% of the time. And if it isn't, doesn't matter - because that pivot point is now just as important because it's now support/resistance. So basically look at a chart, see the most recent major pivot point, and you can start measuring from there. Hope this helps some.
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Post by huh on Apr 30, 2014 19:58:59 GMT -5
Quiz time...(for anyone)
Check out the stock MNKD and FIB it.
See anything? Should be an interesting day for it tomorrow (and IBB).
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