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Post by huh on Apr 15, 2014 8:05:31 GMT -5
I posted about the rounded top & FIBs on NFLX previously ( here) and the relationship to the 389 area. True rounded tops normally retrace at least 50% of the down move. So what do you guys think, maybe a bounce from ~320 back to 389? Trade would be good for ~24-25% and would set-up a large H&S pattern.  Note the 100dma - yellow line. Didn't backtest it on the way down, and if it were to run up form here, could set-up a backtest of it ~389. |
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NFLX
Apr 15, 2014 10:08:03 GMT -5
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Post by huh on Apr 15, 2014 10:08:03 GMT -5
If someone does play this long, use a mental stop a little under 319. NDX looks like much more downside, and unless NFLX is to be an outperformer compared to the likes of AMZN & AAPL, it could make a move for it's bottom BB (currently sitting around 305 & dropping). It would then be a buy there.
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NFLX
Apr 15, 2014 10:20:50 GMT -5
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Post by huh on Apr 15, 2014 10:20:50 GMT -5
If someone does play this long, use a mental stop a little under 319. NDX looks like much more downside, and unless NFLX is to be an outperformer compared to the likes of AMZN & AAPL, it could make a move for it's bottom BB (currently sitting around 305 & dropping). It would then be a buy there. And there's the hard stop now, <318.50. |
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NFLX
Apr 15, 2014 10:42:01 GMT -5
Post by huh on Apr 15, 2014 10:42:01 GMT -5
...and fail. She's not ripe yet. Will wait for a bottoming pattern, or on/under the bottom BB.
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NFLX
Apr 15, 2014 13:06:11 GMT -5
Post by huh on Apr 15, 2014 13:06:11 GMT -5
...and fail. She's not ripe yet. Will wait for a bottoming pattern, or on/under the bottom BB. Now look at her go. Doh! |
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NFLX
Apr 17, 2014 7:41:13 GMT -5
Post by huh on Apr 17, 2014 7:41:13 GMT -5
Looks like NFLX may be playing out that right shoulder like I thought it might. Already up better than 5% from the suggested neckline.
Unfortunately for me, the stop was hit the same day as the reversal. I need to widen stops, wait for closing prices as confirmation, or perhaps wait for the close on the "buy" day for confirmation.
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NFLX
Apr 17, 2014 11:32:24 GMT -5
Post by huh on Apr 17, 2014 11:32:24 GMT -5
If anyone did follow this, 339 is the stop now. Normally my stops are too tight, but this stop should definitely not trigger if this is going higher (or at least be out of long positions if looks like it will close lower).
JMHO
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NFLX
Apr 17, 2014 12:07:55 GMT -5
Post by huh on Apr 17, 2014 12:07:55 GMT -5
If anyone did follow this, 339 is the stop now. Normally my stops are too tight, but this stop should definitely not trigger if this is going higher (or at least be out of long positions if looks like it will close lower). JMHO And if day trading it, ~346.75 would be today's sell target if hit. |
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NFLX
Apr 17, 2014 21:51:51 GMT -5
Post by huh on Apr 17, 2014 21:51:51 GMT -5
Figured I'd post this while thinking of it... If NFLX is creating a H&S here, and sure looks like it is, it likely won't get to that 389 target now. This is because it dropped lower than the 01/15 low, causing the neckline to slope downward. So the shoulder test line now slopes down as well. This line coincides with the 38.2 FIB Monday/Tuesday. I just saw that they report earnings Monday after the close. Also, coincidentally, the shoulder test line is also serving as the upper end of what is now a parallel channel. So if this hits ~372.50 on Monday/Tuesday, there are three resistances - shoulder test line, FIB, and upper channel line resistance. Definitely wouldn't want to stay long this one when that mark hits until it confirms above. If it can't, it likely has a destiny with the lower 200's.  |
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NFLX
Apr 21, 2014 14:17:24 GMT -5
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Post by huh on Apr 21, 2014 14:17:24 GMT -5
Based on the chart, my guess would be that NFLX has a good response to earnings tonight, then gaps'n'craps tomorrow. The marks to short it at are ~373, and possibly even ~389 if it were to get that high.
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NFLX
Apr 21, 2014 14:33:33 GMT -5
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Post by huh on Apr 21, 2014 14:33:33 GMT -5
Make that ~385.75-389 for the high end. There's FIB resistance at 385.75.
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Post by huh on Apr 21, 2014 15:57:47 GMT -5
Hit as high as 375 'n' change AH's. Longs & Twit posters are excited. Most will never see it coming.
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Post by huh on Apr 23, 2014 9:50:00 GMT -5
Hit as high as 375 'n' change AH's. Longs & Twit posters are excited. Most will never see it coming. Like I said: Netflix, Inc. Dealt A Major Blow By Amazon.com, Inc.looking4damoney $NFLX just dropped 12.00. What happene? askorbik $NFLX over reaction to $AMZN HBO news. Only older shows are available nicolebenning30 "@stockoptionexpert: $NFLX we added some calls at 364$ support area, now 371$..nice intraday action $$"(yikes) selling_the_rip $NFLX this thing is in no mans land currently Roses_Wilted $NFLX Right at support... Bullish zer0_sum $NFLX Buying more here. $AMZN deal is cute but is no where close to replacing all the movies/shows that they already have. Sopranos? Really? kimanga Long $NFLX via MAY 16 '14 375 Call Option @ $8.45. This could very well be the wrong day to be long but I think it's holding up well. kriss1427 $NFLX $AMZN Is only providing old content from HBO. Edwardal $NFLX just manipulation.....no sweat. StarPower You know how the scaredy-cat selloff on $NFLX is short term BS? $AMZN is also down. HBO news a non issue for Netflix. pointbreaker $NFLX - bought some, thank you, Bullish svKatface $NFLX Too bad the rest of the world cant have Prime too. Global market. Bullish svKatface $NFLX The Bears' Whine on this stream is cracking me up. "Run, Chicken Little , run!" LOL Enjoy your down day. Bullish ... |
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NFLX
Apr 23, 2014 9:52:28 GMT -5
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Post by huh on Apr 23, 2014 9:52:28 GMT -5
358.50 is previous FIB support. Should get some bounce there. If not, it won't see the mid-high 380's and the RS peak is in.
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NFLX
Apr 25, 2014 10:35:31 GMT -5
Post by huh on Apr 25, 2014 10:35:31 GMT -5
Neckline of the large H&S for NFLX sits around ~311/312 Today/Monday. If it doesn't gap below it, would expect it to bounce from there. Ultimate downside target for this pattern is ~215, but wouldn't make sense to sit short while it FIBs. Better to wait at least until it fails the first captured FIB of the bounce.
JMHO
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NFLX
Apr 28, 2014 10:36:03 GMT -5
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Post by huh on Apr 28, 2014 10:36:03 GMT -5
Neckline of the large H&S for NFLX sits around ~311/312 Today/Monday. If it doesn't gap below it, would expect it to bounce from there. Ultimate downside target for this pattern is ~215, but wouldn't make sense to sit short while it FIBs. Better to wait at least until it fails the first captured FIB of the bounce. JMHO NFLX lost the neckline. Downside target 215. Neckline's the spot to watch for stop/squeeze. |
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NFLX
Apr 28, 2014 10:41:16 GMT -5
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Post by Herceg on Apr 28, 2014 10:41:16 GMT -5
NFLX lost the neckline. Downside target 215. Neckline's the spot to watch for stop/squeeze. Was at 380 just a few days back......had I the patience and nads, that would have been a great short........ JMO and BOL................. |
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NFLX
Apr 28, 2014 10:48:03 GMT -5
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Post by huh on Apr 28, 2014 10:48:03 GMT -5
NFLX lost the neckline. Downside target 215. Neckline's the spot to watch for stop/squeeze. Was at 380 just a few days back......had I the patience and nads, that would have been a great short........ JMO and BOL................. I tried giving a heads up!  Said to short at 373 & 386 if it hit. Even posted the 375.50 AH's notice. God I wish I could short. About the only way to make money these last few weeks. |
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NFLX
May 2, 2014 13:01:20 GMT -5
Post by huh on May 2, 2014 13:01:20 GMT -5
Neckline of the large H&S for NFLX sits around ~311/312 Today/Monday. If it doesn't gap below it, would expect it to bounce from there. Ultimate downside target for this pattern is ~215, but wouldn't make sense to sit short while it FIBs. Better to wait at least until it fails the first captured FIB of the bounce. JMHO Bounced off the neckline & FIBbed exactly as it should have. Looks like the bounce is over. Overshot the 200dma in order to reach the 61.8 FIB, and now losing the previous FIB ('coincidentally' also yesterday's closing price). Next close under 336.50 should ultimately take it under the neckline.  |
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NFLX
May 5, 2014 10:16:24 GMT -5
Post by huh on May 5, 2014 10:16:24 GMT -5
NFLX range bounce between the current FIBs.
If it makes a new HOD (>345.50) it sets up for a move to the final FIB ~356. It's a good short set-up there.
If it falls below the LOD (<336) then it's a short.
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