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Post by huh on Apr 15, 2014 7:18:30 GMT -5
...or better known as Jack has ran out of excuses tax deadline day.
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Post by huh on Apr 15, 2014 7:18:58 GMT -5
10 Things You Need To Know Before The Opening Bell Good morning. Here's what you need to know. China credit growth. Credit growth in China continues to slow. "New yuan loans were higher than expected at 1.05 trillion yuan in March (consensus: 1 trillion; Barclays: 1.1 trillion), while credit growth slowed further to 13.9%, from 14.2% in February," write Barclays economists Jian Chang and Jerry Peng in a note to the firm's clients. "M2 growth fell to a record low of 12.1% in March (consensus: 13.0%; Barclays: 12.8%), reflecting a high base last year and slower deposit growth. Overall, we maintain our view of weak near-term growth but a recovery in Q2. The year-over-year slowdowns in money and credit growth rates suggest near-term weakness in economic growth. We have lowered our Q1 GDP growth forecast to 7.2% year over year (from 7.3%), which implies a sharp slowdown in growth momentum to 4.6% quarter over quarter at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate. On the other hand, the better-than-expected March new loans and total financing support the view that financing channels remain open to stabilise growth as demand recovers." Australia decoupling? The Australian dollar is up more than 5% against the U.S. dollar so far this year despite the reemergence of concerns about the slowing Chinese economy, Australia's biggest export destination. Minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia's April meeting released Tuesday contained a bit of discussion on this. The Aussie dollar is down about 0.4% against the USD today as a result. "Members noted that the exchange rate remained high by historical standards," said the minutes. "Despite commodity prices falling further over the past month, the exchange rate had appreciated a little further. While the decline in the exchange rate from its highs a year earlier would assist in achieving balanced growth in the economy, this would be less so than previously expected given the rise in the exchange rate over the past few months." Yellen speaks. Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen will deliver opening remarks via streaming video at the Atlanta Fed's annual Financial Markets Conference at 8:45 AM ET. Yellen's comments have caused gyrations in markets multiple times in recent weeks as she has sought to reassure market participants that the Fed will not wind down its monetary stimulus measures too early, and will thus be closely monitored this morning. "This week offers a few key pieces of Fed commentary that could be meaningful to the market this weeks as we hear from Yellen twice — once on Tuesday at a financial markets conference and then on Wednesday when she addresses the Economic Club of New York," says Ian Lyngen, a senior government bond strategist at CRT Capital. "Attention will be paid to any further clarity on the timing of the first hike, but we anticipate she'll be more cautious on offering hint at this point, especially in the wake of the '6 months' confusion." Markets are quiet. U.S. stock futures are rallying a bit and are set to open in the green, while U.S. Treasury note futures point to higher yields. European equity indices are trading lower with the exception of France's CAC 40. Gold is down 1.6%, trading around $1305 an ounce. The dollar is up slightly against the euro and little changed against the yen. The Japanese Nikkei 225 closed up 0.6% on Tuesday, but the Hong Kong Hang Seng fell 1.6%. German sentiment. ZEW's monthly indicator of German economic sentiment slid to 43.2 in April from 46.6 in March, marking a decrease in expectations for future growth. The "current situation" component, however, leaped to 59.5 from 51.3, marking the highest level in three years. "The cautious expectations in this month's survey are likely to be caused by the Ukraine conflict, which still creates uncertainty. Furthermore, the slight decline in economic expectations has taken place against the backdrop of a very positive evaluation of the current economic situation in Germany," said ZEW in a press release. "This very positive assessment of the economic situation may also explain to some extend why a part of the surveyed experts have slightly lowered their expectations for the next six months — in their view the German economy is already growing at a considerable pace." U.K. prices. The year-over-year change in the U.K.'s consumer price index eased to 1.6% in March from 1.7% in February, in line with expectations. "This is the slowest pace since October 2009," says Marc Chandler, global head of currency strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman. "It is the third consecutive month that the reading is below the BOE’s 2% medium term target. If the inflation is not in the consumer sector, some fear it may be showing up elsewhere. The ONS reported today that annual house price inflation accelerated to 9.1% in February, nearly a 4-year high. In London, the ONS found, house prices have increased almost 18%, the most in nearly 7 years." U.S. prices. Monthly U.S. consumer price index data will be released at 8:30 AM ET. Economists predict both the headline index and the "core" index (which excludes food and energy prices) rose 0.1% in March. Such gains would leave the year-over-year change in the core index steady at 1.6% while boosting the year-over-year change in the headline index to 1.4% from 1.1% in February, due to a drop in energy prices in March 2013. Empire manufacturing. The results of the New York Fed's monthly Empire State Manufacturing Survey are also due out at 8:30 AM. Economists predict the report's headline index rose to 8 this month from March's 5.61 reading, indicative of an acceleration in the pace of improvement in business conditions for manufacturers in the state of New York. NAHB housing. The National Association of Home Builders releases the April update to its monthly Housing Market Index at 10 AM. Economists expect it to advance to the neutral 50 level from March's 47 reading, implying that an equal number of home builders view sales conditions as positive as those who view conditions as negative. Earnings. Consumer giants Coca-Cola and Johnson & Johnson report quarterly earnings results this morning before the opening bell. Coca-Cola is expected to post earnings of $0.44 per share in the quarter ended March 31 on revenues of $10.55 billion (down 4.4% from last year). Johnson & Johnson is expected to report earnings of $1.48 per share on revenues of $18 billion (up 2.8% from last year). Yahoo! and Intel report this afternoon after the closing bell. Read more: www.businessinsider.com/opening-bell-tuesday-15-2014-4#ixzz2yxNs0Aiv
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Post by huh on Apr 15, 2014 7:19:47 GMT -5
10 Things In Tech You Need To Know This Morning The inside story of Clinkle, a payments startup run by a 21-year-old, that raised a $25 million seed round, then imploded. It's well-reported, read the whole thing. Google bought a high-flying solar-powered drone company called Titan Aerospace. Titan's drones can fly for five years at a time. Google will use them for Mapping, sending Internet to places not yet connected, and other stuff. David Fincher is pulling out as director of the Steve Jobs movie over money battles. That's a shame because he directed the Social Network, which was great. Sean Parker is going to be the CEO at Brigade, a new startup he's founding to get more people engaged in civic activities like voting. He's putting in his own money. Ron Conway and Marc Benioff are also investors. Mozilla, the parent company of Firefox, has a new interim CEO. Former CMO Chris Beard is joining the board and taking over as CEO. Looks like Microsoft has killed its "Scroogled" ad campaign that attacked Google. The official company line is that Scroogled is not dead, but based on what we're hearing it's basically dead. Samsung testified that it's main advantage in its fight with Apple wasn't copying Apple's software but rather spending billions of dollars on marketing. Yahoo reports earnings this afternoon, and Kara Swisher is wondering if Yahoo will announce a new board member since Yahoo is down to just 5 board members. Here's how Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba beat eBay years ago. This is a good primer on Alibaba, which is about to IPO. Google has a patent for a contact lens with a camera in the lens. We doubt we'll see this any time soon, if ever, but it's a glimpse at Google's long term ambition with Google Glass. Read more: www.businessinsider.com/10-things-in-tech-you-need-to-know-this-morning-april-15-2014-4#ixzz2yxO2cx28
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Post by huh on Apr 15, 2014 7:20:23 GMT -5
Frontrunning: April 15 Tyler Durden's pictureSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 04/15/2014 07:32 -0400 Ukraine forces move against separatists (FT) China GDP Gauge Seen Showing Deeper Slowdown (BBG) China Is Losing Its Taste for Gold (WSJ) Regulators Weigh Curbs on Trading Fees (WSJ) Obama, Putin Talk as Unrest Roils Eastern Ukraine (WSJ) Japan PM talks with BOJ chief, does not push for easing (Reuters) BRICS countries to set up their own IMF (RBTH) IMF Members Weigh Options to Sidestep U.S. Congress on Overhaul (WSJ) Zebra to Buy Motorola Solutions Unit for $3.45 Billion (BBG) Chinese Thunder God Herb Works as Well as Pain Therapy (BBG) Italian Premier Renzi Names State-Controlled Company Bosses (WSJ) China New Credit Declines as Money-Supply Growth Decelerates (BBG) European Companies See Sales Growth Hit by Exchange Rates (WSJ) www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-04-15/frontrunning-april-15
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Post by dino on Apr 15, 2014 7:51:26 GMT -5
Nosedive in Gold futures!?!?!?!?!?? Currently down 2.65%.
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Post by huh on Apr 15, 2014 8:16:04 GMT -5
Perhaps due to AUD/USD down .62%...?
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Post by huh on Apr 15, 2014 8:17:33 GMT -5
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Post by huh on Apr 15, 2014 8:43:03 GMT -5
If we see SPX 1850 (yet again), it's a short to at least a little under 1804 IMO (~1850 is the backtest of a bearish pattern and 61.8 FIB from 04/10 high).
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Post by crumbdon on Apr 15, 2014 8:54:02 GMT -5
I was thinking ES 1839-40 could be pretty strong resistance. Guess we will see soon.
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Post by huh on Apr 15, 2014 9:42:09 GMT -5
Wow. Impressive stat: RyanDetrick As discussed w @srussolillo, $SPX w/o Tuesday -8.3% YTD. Here's the chart. cc: @carlquintanilla stks.co/i0V8u
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Post by Herceg on Apr 15, 2014 9:42:13 GMT -5
Mkt. just hanging around..........earnings are not serving as a catalyst as many bulls hoped..............this has sell off written all over it, unless the Fed comes out again and mentions accommodation or they increase the printing presses.............In the end the mkt. will crumble and we will be that much more in debt with nothing to show for it.............To top it off Putin is laughing at us and making the U.S. look like clueless individuals.......................
JMO and BOL............
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Post by huh on Apr 15, 2014 10:49:27 GMT -5
Another chart to watch for possible bank direction - GS would complete a gap fill (Thur's close) and a 61.8 FIB retracement ~156.10-156.20. I missed the peak in GS by 5/100th of a %. Filled the daily gap from 04/10, but not the closing gap. Bear flag forming, target ~146.85.
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Post by huh on Apr 15, 2014 10:56:30 GMT -5
Careful of AAPL here - that HOD was a perfect shoulder line test for a small H&S. [chart] AAPL still FIBbing down since hitting that shoulder line test. Setting up as a decent risk/reward short. Currently trading ~538, neckline sits ~535, and target would be ~522. But I think it will overshoot to the gap fill ~513.50. Mental stop against 539. AAPL hit very near that 513.50 gap fill (514 LOD), and under its bottom BB. Although NDX shows more downside, I wouldn't be short AAPL here unless it loses support. That sits a little under the LOD, but its 200dma sits a little under that. Not worth the risk/reward for a short now unless it were to lose the 200dma IMHO.
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Post by huh on Apr 15, 2014 11:27:28 GMT -5
I'm hunting for Easter Eggs already - stocks to run next week after this pullback.
Any buy targets anyone's watching?
I'm considering things like - Tech: NFLX, FB, AMZN and/or AAPL if they hit their lower targets; DRN for real estate; Banks; FAS, or C (if it continues to outperform and holds inside its bear channel), maybe even NBG for a dead cat bounce. Definitely MNKD if it hits the lower targets.
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Post by crumbdon on Apr 15, 2014 11:37:01 GMT -5
Had the AAPL & the FAS in mind myself. Mebbe MKND, if I'm ballsy enough....
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Post by crumbdon on Apr 15, 2014 11:40:28 GMT -5
I might like URE for Real Estate, but wish it had more volume.
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Post by Herceg on Apr 15, 2014 11:41:42 GMT -5
I'm hunting for Easter Eggs already - stocks to run next week after this pullback. Any buy targets anyone's watching? I'm considering things like - Tech: NFLX, FB, AMZN and/or AAPL if they hit their lower targets; DRN for real estate; Banks; FAS, or C (if it continues to outperform and holds inside its bear channel), maybe even NBG for a dead cat bounce. Definitely MNKD if it hits the lower targets. It might bounce a bit just for dead cat bounce purposes, however I still believe there is a great deal more downside........ JMO and BOL.............
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Post by huh on Apr 15, 2014 11:43:08 GMT -5
I might like URE for Real Estate, but wish it had more volume. The IYR trade I posted about sometime ago is still playing out. In fact, IYR backtested the breakout before climbing again. I'm only hoping that it will do some FIB retracing here and work out some of the decay in the leveraged funds.
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Post by huh on Apr 15, 2014 11:46:23 GMT -5
Here's an updated IYR chart. Note the backtest (purple arrow). And it is performing fairly well relative to the major indices, even today.
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Post by huh on Apr 15, 2014 11:52:21 GMT -5
I'm hunting for Easter Eggs already - stocks to run next week after this pullback. Any buy targets anyone's watching? I'm considering things like - Tech: NFLX, FB, AMZN and/or AAPL if they hit their lower targets; DRN for real estate; Banks; FAS, or C (if it continues to outperform and holds inside its bear channel), maybe even NBG for a dead cat bounce. Definitely MNKD if it hits the lower targets. It might bounce a bit just for dead cat bounce purposes, however I still believe there is a great deal more downside........ JMO and BOL............. Looking at the indices, you'd think this recent sell-off started ~04/03. But for AMZN, it started on 01/30. NFLX, 03/06. FB, 03/11. AAPL, December of last year. I think many of these are due for a relief rally - and a holiday week would be as good a time as any. JMHO
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