|
Post by huh on Mar 13, 2014 17:37:45 GMT -5
And look where AMZN bounced, right at the 76.4 FIB of the recent up move. If it can hold & get back over 373.50, good odds it goes back to the highs (last upside gap fill sits at 403). It would then become one of the "squeeziest" plays.
|
|
|
Post by huh on Mar 14, 2014 10:41:05 GMT -5
Can see why I stepped away from calling AMZN today. Only whipsawing the FIBs before next move.
Long above 377, short below 368.
|
|
|
Post by huh on Mar 14, 2014 12:05:41 GMT -5
Can see why I stepped away from calling AMZN today. Only whipsawing the FIBs before next move. Long above 377, short below 368. And a few minutes later AMZN hit 377.00, on the nose (but not above). Oh the games they play. Who's says algos don't have a sense of humor?
|
|
|
Post by huh on Mar 21, 2014 13:01:07 GMT -5
AMZN lost support. Next target 200dma ~336/337 - and that will tag the neckline of the larger H&S.
|
|
|
Post by huh on Mar 25, 2014 9:22:05 GMT -5
AMZN HOD was a 76.4 FIB retrace, then turned and now losing support & FIBs again. Still looking at a downside target a little over 336.
|
|
|
Post by huh on Mar 26, 2014 17:52:05 GMT -5
Almost there...Although the ultimate downside target is ~281, when it hits the neckline of this larger H&S (lower orange line, green arrow), will wait to see what happens as that will also be a test of the 200dma - the first test in nearly a year.
|
|
|
Post by huh on Mar 27, 2014 8:43:20 GMT -5
Cover AMZN short at 332.50. Cumulative gain now of 44.7% (includes .75% stop loss for that long over 377)
Below the neckline of the large H&S. Wait to insure it doesn't squeeze now on the backtest.
|
|
|
Post by huh on Mar 27, 2014 9:06:57 GMT -5
Cover AMZN short at 332.50. Cumulative gain now of 44.7% (includes .75% stop loss for that long over 377) Below the neckline of the large H&S. Wait to insure it doesn't squeeze now on the backtest. AMZN not only back above its neckline, but also back above its 200dma (and backtested the move over it).
|
|
|
Post by huh on Mar 27, 2014 10:49:45 GMT -5
Long AMZN 334.01. Tight stop.
|
|
|
Post by huh on Mar 28, 2014 11:57:17 GMT -5
Long AMZN 334.01. Tight stop. Hard stop 340.70. Would only be for 2% gain. But squeezes are more about momentum than anything, and down there would lose it. Short again if it falls under 335. Seems bulls could be getting tired already so switching to auto-pilot JIC.
|
|
|
Post by huh on Mar 28, 2014 15:06:04 GMT -5
Long AMZN 334.01. Tight stop. Hard stop 340.70. Would only be for 2% gain. But squeezes are more about momentum than anything, and down there would lose it. Short again if it falls under 335. Seems bulls could be getting tired already so switching to auto-pilot JIC. Stopped out. 47.5% cumulative gain. Waiting for next direction, though it did close under its 200dma for the first time since last May.
|
|
|
Post by jacksrbtr on Mar 28, 2014 15:16:18 GMT -5
Hard stop 340.70. Would only be for 2% gain. But squeezes are more about momentum than anything, and down there would lose it. Short again if it falls under 335. Seems bulls could be getting tired already so switching to auto-pilot JIC. Stopped out. 47.5% cumulative gain. Waiting for next direction, though it did close under its 200dma for the first time since last May. 48% gain!!!! You da man!!! Congratz!!!
|
|
|
Post by huh on Mar 28, 2014 15:30:16 GMT -5
Stopped out. 47.5% cumulative gain. Waiting for next direction, though it did close under its 200dma for the first time since last May. 48% gain!!!! You da man!!! Congratz!!! Unfortunately I'm not set up to short, so I only play the long side. Not near as profitable (or fun).
|
|
|
Post by huh on Mar 31, 2014 10:20:46 GMT -5
If you're looking for a short, AMZN is now very close to losing the neckline of a 5 1/2 month H&S pattern (under 335). Target would be ~280, but I'd unload it at 281 (08/30/13 gap fill). Like all H&S' it could squeeze after losing it, and even run back to the highs to fill the gap. I had hoped that would happen. But so far, AMZN has been playing these topping patterns perfectly. Again, it's a short only under 335 with a tight stop. Larger H&S is shown in orange lines:
|
|
|
Post by huh on Mar 31, 2014 13:38:29 GMT -5
Still waiting to see what AMZN does here. VIX not exactly indicating a market free fall right now. AMZN could still bounce.
|
|
|
Post by huh on Apr 1, 2014 9:36:44 GMT -5
Still waiting to see what AMZN does here. VIX not exactly indicating a market free fall right now. AMZN could still bounce. E'squeeze me? That's what I thought. AMZN up better than 2%. History books will likely show the most effective part of QE was actually the squeezing of H&S patterns.
|
|
|
Post by huh on Apr 1, 2014 11:47:25 GMT -5
Short AMZN 343.50.
|
|
|
Post by huh on Apr 1, 2014 13:21:25 GMT -5
Hard stop for even money (343.50). Potential setting up for more squeezin' into EOD if market were to rise anymore now.
|
|
|
Post by huh on Apr 2, 2014 10:09:20 GMT -5
Gotta run, but another shot at short AMZN should it hit 351.25 today, JIC. Otherwise, likely wait for a move under the neckline.
|
|
|
Post by huh on Apr 3, 2014 11:19:18 GMT -5
Short AMZN 332.50. Missed most of this last down move scared it would go for the higher FIB, and because VIX wasn't participating. But apparently AMZN doesn't care about those things.
|
|