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Post by huh on Jan 30, 2014 9:56:53 GMT -5
Way back when I got sideswepted on this board when I predicted Amazon would rival Apple. With its lower priced Kindle and its all-consumers-welcome approach, as opposed to Jobs-way or the highway, I stand by my prediction. Well, AMZN is currently trading more than 111x's AAPL's valuation, so I'd say you won that bet hands down Nats!
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Post by nats on Jan 30, 2014 10:14:25 GMT -5
Way back when I got sideswepted on this board when I predicted Amazon would rival Apple. With its lower priced Kindle and its all-consumers-welcome approach, as opposed to Jobs-way or the highway, I stand by my prediction. Well, AMZN is currently trading more than 111x's AAPL's valuation, so I'd say you won that bet hands down Nats! It wasn't really this board, it was the-one-before the-one-before the-one-be... oh I forgot exactly where but it wasn't THIS board!
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Post by huh on Jan 30, 2014 11:37:51 GMT -5
AMZN getting close to that $400 mark.
Don't know which way it will go, but I wouldn't want to be holding it into earnings unless it were to decisively break above there.
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Post by huh on Jan 30, 2014 14:53:11 GMT -5
Liking the look of AMZN. Up 5% and holding well. I'd love to see them knock earnings out of the park. (could bode well for the overall markets)
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Post by huh on Jan 30, 2014 16:15:08 GMT -5
So much for a bear dreaming the dreams of the bulls. AMZN screwing the pooch AH's.
H&S target is ~356. Neckline backtest would be ~381 if target's not hit first.
I wouldn't touch it in AH's either way though.
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Post by huh on Jan 30, 2014 16:31:11 GMT -5
Already down ~11% and almost to the target. Maybe we'll get lucky and it will open at the H&S target or lower, then only FIB retrace/gap fill tomorrow (up). A good possibility if it doesn't go any lower than 345.
I still think AMZN has seen a long term top now. Too much coincidence that it formed a H&S pattern where I predicted it would peak. And then this reaction to earnings.
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Post by huh on Jan 30, 2014 19:43:32 GMT -5
AH's low satisfied the H&S target - and it happened fast. Then rallied ~8%.
Normally an AH's print wouldn't satisfy a pattern target, and I don't think AMZN rallies tomorrow. But I do think that the market wants some more upside tomorrow & AMZN won't be crampin' it's style.
JMHO
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Post by huh on Feb 3, 2014 10:26:04 GMT -5
AMZN tagged some support with the LOD. Could possibly overshoot to ~342, but should see some bounce around here. Unfortunately, that would likely only create the RS of another and larger H&S.
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Post by huh on Feb 11, 2014 11:33:15 GMT -5
To recap: AMZN hit the upside target of the breakout over a rising wedge. It then pulled back about 5%, before coming back up for a double-top, as was expected for a parabolic move. It pulled back again, then made one more move up to complete a large H&S pattern.
And looks what it's done since. Nearly straight down.
Why is this important?
The recent high in NDX hit the upside target of the breakout over a rising wedge. It then pulled back about 5%, before coming back up. It is nearing a double-top now.
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Post by huh on Feb 19, 2014 10:57:13 GMT -5
Looks as if that previous H&S (white lines) is acting as the head of a larger H&S (turquoise lines). I had expected it might backtest the previous neckline ~381, but that's not likely if it doesn't close green today. Next support ~338, & below that, downside target would be ~283.
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Post by huh on Feb 27, 2014 8:36:31 GMT -5
AMZN did bounce off that 338 support as expected (low was 337.73). Although it's showing multiple topping patterns now and a likely downside target in the low 280's, I think it will try for at least a backtest of the smaller H&S broken neckline around $381 soon. Could see one more pullback to ~350 first.
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Post by huh on Mar 5, 2014 10:27:00 GMT -5
AMZN did bounce off that 338 support as expected (low was 337.73). Although it's showing multiple topping patterns now and a likely downside target in the low 280's, I think it will try for at least a backtest of the smaller H&S broken neckline around $381 soon. Could see one more pullback to ~350 first. View AttachmentAMZN well on its way to that 381 back test now (only pulled back as low as to 354.50)
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Post by huh on Mar 5, 2014 11:41:06 GMT -5
AMZN did bounce off that 338 support as expected (low was 337.73). Although it's showing multiple topping patterns now and a likely downside target in the low 280's, I think it will try for at least a backtest of the smaller H&S broken neckline around $381 soon. Could see one more pullback to ~350 first. View AttachmentAMZN well on its way to that 381 back test now (only pulled back as low as to 354.50) Ooh, ouch. Looks like it's trying to form an intra-day rounded top. It better find some strength here, and quick.
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Post by jacksrbtr on Mar 5, 2014 11:51:47 GMT -5
Nick at ITMS is saying that when the $Dollar/Yen gets to 103.82 its time to go short. finance.yahoo.com/q?s=JPY%3DX&ql=0 I see that he actually shorted the SPY at 10am at 187.80 so he apparently jumped the gun.
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Post by huh on Mar 13, 2014 9:01:09 GMT -5
AMZN did bounce off that 338 support as expected (low was 337.73). Although it's showing multiple topping patterns now and a likely downside target in the low 280's, I think it will try for at least a backtest of the smaller H&S broken neckline around $381 soon. Could see one more pullback to ~350 first. View AttachmentBack testing neckline of upper H&S now @ $381.56. That's two virtual trades, 1 down, 1 up, for a cumulative gain of 30%. Short again here @ $381.56. Tight stop though - could do a head test and gap fill, even make a new high. But should at least FIB back some first.
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Post by huh on Mar 13, 2014 9:04:04 GMT -5
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Post by huh on Mar 13, 2014 11:07:48 GMT -5
Nice little H&S formed after hitting the back test.
Set stop @ 379 for small gain and sell/cover target for 371.30. Need to see if it eyes that head test after gap filling/FIB retracing.
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Post by huh on Mar 13, 2014 12:19:36 GMT -5
Nice little H&S formed after hitting the back test. Set stop @ 379 for small gain and sell/cover target for 371.30. Need to see if it eyes that head test after gap filling/FIB retracing. ...and move stop down to 375.83.
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Post by huh on Mar 13, 2014 12:40:40 GMT -5
Nice little H&S formed after hitting the back test. Set stop @ 379 for small gain and sell/cover target for 371.30. Need to see if it eyes that head test after gap filling/FIB retracing. ...and move stop down to 375.83. And cover here at 372.75 for a 2.33% - cumulative gain over 33%. Cover early and let it simmer a bit - mostly because I gotta run and can't watch it.
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Post by huh on Mar 13, 2014 13:58:58 GMT -5
AMZN filling the opening gap and hitting final FIB support here from the 03/12 low (@ 371).
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