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Post by huh on Dec 20, 2013 9:44:50 GMT -5
Ever since GLD topped, I spent some time researching the TA behind technical parabolic moves. Unfortunately there isn't a lot of recent examples out there, but GLD was a good one. Although much of it is far more detailed then I want to get into (it involves a series of parallel channels with increasing slopes, and measurements within each corresponding with the others), I did find that all of this simply creates a rising wedge, which is then broken to the upside. And measuring it similar to the way you would for a downside target, you can use this same measurement for the upside target. Here's an example of GLD's top and the rising wedge and target (purple lines). As you can see, it hit the upside target perfectly, pulled back, then came back up for a double-top. This same set-up could be happening in AMZN right now. Here's the chart: If looking for a short on AMZN, I'd look for a slightly higher high than the recent 399. Could be a good risk/reward trade and might be best to stagger in with two buys. One buy on the close of the day it makes a new high, and the second on any up move the morning after. Of course the stop would then be above the high of that morning after. And before you even say it - I know. AMZN is a great company, ever expanding. yadda yadda. This is only a possible technical trade set-up with a good risk/reward. AMZN's top BB currently sits around 399.40 and lines up perfectly with the idea of a parabolic top target.
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Post by huh on Dec 20, 2013 9:45:50 GMT -5
Sorry, posted this the other day but deleted it.
Hitting the upper target now.
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Post by huh on Dec 20, 2013 12:36:59 GMT -5
Gonna jump in a little early on this virtual trade.
1/2 position short here @402.80.
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Post by huh on Dec 20, 2013 12:37:45 GMT -5
Only because I think it has a good chance of not closing at the HOD.
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Post by Herceg on Dec 20, 2013 12:51:16 GMT -5
Gonna jump in a little early on this virtual trade. 1/2 position short here @402.80. I like the trade, but too rich for my blood right now.....maybe in a few years........ BOL to you...............
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Post by huh on Dec 20, 2013 12:55:27 GMT -5
Eh...it's only virtual money.
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Post by Herceg on Dec 20, 2013 13:08:18 GMT -5
Eh...it's only virtual money. I know, but I prefer real money...........LOL
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Post by huh on Dec 21, 2013 13:56:38 GMT -5
I didn't post this info only to bash AMZN. I've heard and read many times that when and where the peak of a parabolic will occur can't be predicted. I think otherwise.
But more importantly, the info in the charts above may have significant implications to the SPX and NDX charts. Anyone see it?
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Post by huh on Dec 23, 2013 10:38:06 GMT -5
Why the %* is AMZN down today!?! Naz is up like almost a %! This market is rigged! MM's holding it down!
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Post by huh on Dec 26, 2013 10:14:37 GMT -5
Oops, forgot about this one. Add to virtual short here at 400.00.
Average short at 401.40.
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Post by huh on Dec 27, 2013 10:40:06 GMT -5
Today's HOD in AMZN looks to be a head test of a small double-top. And since then, been running the FIBs on the way down perfectly. Seems to me that algos are set to sell this.
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Post by huh on Jan 3, 2014 12:02:34 GMT -5
AMZN hit the rarely tagged 76.4 FIB retracement with that HOD today, and looks to be forming an ugly daily candle now if it closes flat or lower. Looks to me to be a last gasp. Next downside target is the 12/12 gap fill a little above 381.
I'm not going to keep following this one, but I think it's a longer term short and could see as low as 260's this year.
And the significance of this set-up is that both SPX and NDX could be setting up a very similar pattern with another leg up to new highs. So it's worth watching if this plays out. And sorry that's bearish, but that's what I'm seeing.
I've been bullish on AAPL to balance out tech, and bullish on SPX since 1647 (with one small brain fart after losing 1775 the 4th time). So I've tried not being all bear.
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Post by huh on Jan 4, 2014 10:18:00 GMT -5
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Post by huh on Jan 16, 2014 9:38:24 GMT -5
Looks as if AMZN could be going for that lower target ~381. If it hits, there's a chance it makes a quick run back to mid-390's/400. (RS of a H&S)
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Post by huh on Jan 16, 2014 14:01:39 GMT -5
Hey! You're not supposed to be green today!
lol
Those BB's are tighter than they've been in a long time. Should break hard soon, one way or the other.
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Post by huh on Jan 16, 2014 20:08:22 GMT -5
Hey! You're not supposed to be green today! And closed red, although only slightly. Sometimes you just have to get stern with these stocks.
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Post by huh on Jan 27, 2014 12:58:14 GMT -5
Looks as if AMZN could be going for that lower target ~381. If it hits, there's a chance it makes a quick run back to mid-390's/400. (RS of a H&S) AMZN finally hit that 381 target (& bouncing). Would expect, at best, one more trip back to ~400.
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Post by huh on Jan 30, 2014 9:20:56 GMT -5
Keep an eye on AMZN the next few days. Below is the chart of the possible H&S pattern I mentioned. This is forming right at the rising wedge peak. Remember that rising wedges are normally bearish patterns. But my theory is that when a stock instead rises above it and hits the measured target to the upside, it's a parabolic move. There's actually a lot more behind it with FIB extensions and measured moves in successively higher sloping channels, but this is the easiest way to see it. The RS peak would be expected ~400. However, I'm not saying to short it there - instead wait to see if it breaks over that upper shoulder test line. Why? Because nearly every H&S I've posted about recently has done this and went on to hit a FIB extension above the peak of the head (UNG a good, very recent example).
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Post by huh on Jan 30, 2014 9:22:57 GMT -5
And why is this so important? Because SPX, NDX & COMPQX are all running nearly identical set-ups. And if AMZN breaks out above, then markets likely will as well. Naz has already hit the upper target, but SPX has not. And why, if they break higher, I expect SPX to outperform tech.
I've been talking a lot about the possible 1813-1815 backtest in SPX. Well, now everyone's seeing it. It's a FIB retracement, 50dma, horizontal support, possible shoulder line test RS peak, and I've even seen a post showing Elliott Wave targets for the same area.
This means either we'll never hit it, or break clean through it.
If SPX were to break over 1820, I believe we'll see 1890's soon after.
But for now, have to treat it as resistance if it were to get that high. But perhaps AMZN may give us a heads up as to what it might do when/if it does get there.
JMHO
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Post by nats on Jan 30, 2014 9:53:35 GMT -5
And why is this so important? Because SPX, NDX & COMPQX are all running nearly identical set-ups. And if AMZN breaks out above, then markets likely will as well. Naz has already hit the upper target, but SPX has not. And why, if they break higher, I expect SPX to outperform tech. I've been talking a lot about the possible 1813-1815 backtest in SPX. Well, now everyone's seeing it. It's a FIB retracement, 50dma, horizontal support, possible shoulder line test RS peak, and I've even seen a post showing Elliott Wave targets for the same area. This means either we'll never hit it, or break clean through it. If SPX breaks over 1820, I believe we'll see 1890's soon after. But for now, have to treat it as resistance. But perhaps AMZN may give us a heads up as to what it might do when/if it gets there. JMHO Way back when I got sideswepted on this board when I predicted Amazon would rival Apple. With its lower priced Kindle and its all-consumers-welcome approach, as opposed to Jobs-way or the highway, I stand by my prediction.
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