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Post by maxi on Oct 23, 2013 18:36:14 GMT -5
FWIW and only FWIW which in my opinion is less than zero... SEEKING ALPHA DRIVELThis came out premarket. It is what moved the stock coupled with retail shorts piling on. I would hazard a guess that the recent press on NBG previous to the article also moved it UP at break neck pace as well.... All this BS will settle out at some point....
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Post by maxi on Oct 23, 2013 18:59:13 GMT -5
AHA Maxi discovers hourly charts... There was support right where the stock stopped today. The next area of support is at that 5.25 5.30 area.... which is right at the 50 fib...
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Post by huh on Oct 23, 2013 19:39:53 GMT -5
JMO, but I doubt the news article had much to do with today's sell-off. Look where it peaked yesterday (green arrow)...I mentioned this then. Top of the channel. The 61.8 FIB for the recent run-up (green lines) is ~5.71. That also coincides with the 1/2 way mark of this up channel (grey line). I think it will find support there and run to either ~6.77 (the 61.8 FIB of the large down move), or even ~7.02, the upside gap left from 05/31. If it doesn't find support ~5.71, then ~5.28 is a confluence of FIBs - the 50 FIB you show in your hourly chart as well as the 38.2 of the large down move (pink dashed lines). The problem is that the 38.2 FIB of the large down move already backtested. Going down to test it again, combined with losing the mid-way point of the channel now wouldn't be all that bullish IMO. But we'll see. I think 5.71 will hold.
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Post by huh on Oct 24, 2013 8:43:37 GMT -5
I got to say it..."I was wrong".
NBG lost that support. Looks like Maxi wins...again!
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Post by huh on Oct 24, 2013 8:54:15 GMT -5
That 5.55/5.56 area is another support. But if bought there, you'd want to see it close over 5.75 by EOD.
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Post by huh on Oct 24, 2013 9:45:58 GMT -5
OK, NBG's obviously gotten the best of me. I thought the FIB at today's LOD was already backtested. Apparently I was wrong. I'm going to stop mentioning my short term ideas on this. I'm only embarrassing myself. But, I'll leave it with these two things (and since I've been wrong, take it FWIW): Even if holding this for a long term hold...the ultimate stop should be the lower trend line across the 07/05/13, 08/01/13, and 08/27/13 lows (log chart). This looks very much like a bear flag and the pps had already traded under it then rose back into it, and has yet to rise above the top channel. If it were to lose that lower line, it would have a long, long way down (~60 cents). And I know that sounds ridiculous, but it also did when I mentioned that target before when trading over $2.00 pre-split. It eventually hit that target and lower. As of today, that line sits a little under $5 and rises fairly sharply. So it's a good rising stop. Secondly, if NBG gets up to around 6.77 at EOM, or even overshoots to ~7.00 at EOM for a gap fill, might be a good idea to sell at least some and wait a day or two. Wouldn't want to see it peak there since that could be the peak of a bear flag. Get over that potential bear flag channel for more than a day and it's a good hold position with a well defined stop (that upper channel line). Lots of upside then since the overall long term trend would be broken. That top channel line runs across the 07/09/13, 08/12/13 and 10/22/13 highs. JMHO
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Post by maxi on Oct 24, 2013 16:42:52 GMT -5
Have you seen these new candle charts on TOS? They show volume by how fat the candle is.....
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Post by birthmark on Oct 29, 2013 14:32:25 GMT -5
NBG sitting at 5.50 here. Will be interesting where she goes. I think down some more.
GL
PS-- I do not have any yet.
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Post by maxi on Nov 3, 2013 11:07:09 GMT -5
I just looked at an earlier chart Huh did of NBG. Technically ( and only technically) NBG broke support. NOT a good thing for short term traders. BUT fundamentally the reason for this selling is that next week the question of to bail out or not to bail out more is front and center again..... OTOH NBG is scheduled to possibly be added to the MSCI emerging market fund with a final announcement due out November 7th..... Huh could you double check me on this? Did it fall out of that channel you drew a while back? Blue line is the 20 dam.... the others are the 5 10 50 and 100
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Post by maxi on Nov 3, 2013 11:15:03 GMT -5
Okay not as bad as I thought? Channel:
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Post by huh on Nov 3, 2013 14:18:21 GMT -5
No, it didn't lose that main channel (white lines). Recently it has formed what looks be a small 50% retracing bear flag (yellow lines and FIBs), but it only hit the bottom of the channel once before heading up, so I'm not 100% convinced on that one yet, even though it fell below the channel. However it did fall below the 50% line of the large white channel (grey line), which had served as support recently. I would have thought that would have held for now. As long as it doesn't lose that lower white line, it could all be consolidation. Hopefully that yellow flag doesn't play out. That target would set it below the main white channel, and that would target a number way, way down from here. Would like to see it get back up into that yellow channel early this week and head to fill that gap ~6.38, and possibly get to that 61.8 point of the larger FIB (pink lines).
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Post by maxi on Nov 3, 2013 15:16:01 GMT -5
Yep my thought exactly..... thanks!
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Post by maxi on Nov 3, 2013 15:26:07 GMT -5
I think I asked you this before ... but how do I choose the 0 level for my fib retracement? This one I used the close of 4.19 which was the price the day before the break out....
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Post by maxi on Nov 3, 2013 15:27:38 GMT -5
No, it didn't lose that main channel (white lines). Recently it has formed what looks be a small 50% retracing bear flag (yellow lines and FIBs), but it only hit the bottom of the channel once before heading up, so I'm not 100% convinced on that one yet, even though it fell below the channel. However it did fall below the 50% line of the large white channel (grey line), which had served as support recently. I would have thought that would have held for now. As long as it doesn't lose that lower white line, it could all be consolidation. Hopefully that yellow flag doesn't play out. That target would set it below the main white channel, and that would target a number way, way down from here. Would like to see it get back up into that yellow channel early this week and head to fill that gap ~6.38, and possibly get to that 61.8 point of the larger FIB (pink lines). Where do those fib lines start? (Same question as previous question.....) And why did you pick what ever level that was? ( is)
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Post by maxi on Nov 3, 2013 15:31:09 GMT -5
Sorry for so many questions but since we use different chart platform what time period is that? I know it is 30 minutes but is it 1 mth, 2 mth, 3mth?
Or is it days? TOS doesn't seem to want to let me do 30 days 30 minutes. I can do 20 days 30 min.....
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Post by huh on Nov 3, 2013 16:52:35 GMT -5
For the larger FIB (pink) I'm using the high of 9.20 from 05/31. That's the first bounce after that huge gap down earlier this year, and that was a 50% retrace of the gap down low. The low I'm using is the all time low.
For the time frames, whatever it takes to see as far back as at least 05/31.
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Post by huh on Nov 3, 2013 16:59:36 GMT -5
I actually feel a little better about NBG since it didn't peak between 6.70 and 7.00 at the end of October. That would have been really bad. And it got above the pink 50 FIB, but didn't hit the 61.8. Everything here could be consolidation now - only so long as it doesn't lose that lower white line - or even 5.28 (the next pink FIB down - remember how that area was resistance?).
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Post by huh on Nov 3, 2013 17:16:37 GMT -5
If it's to continue higher from here, I don't think it would go any lower than ~5.40-5.60. A bounce from this area could form a ST iH&S or even double bottom. 5.40 would be a great play if it gets that low, using a stop of 5.24.
It's pretty much a swing trade between 5.28 and 6.77, or even that 7.00 gap fill. A breakout either way would define the longer term move.
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Post by maxi on Nov 6, 2013 17:09:22 GMT -5
Just sold a bit of NBG at 5.74. = 36% Tired of not doing anything and have enough left so that if it just goes to the moon after this it is okay too....
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Post by maxi on Nov 6, 2013 17:10:19 GMT -5
To be honest I have sells in all over the place. Sold the tiny bit of EDN (+9%) I had today too. Market can go to the moon but really I don't feel good about all this upside.
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